Global- Tropics- So Quiet its Spooky!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Who's fooling who? We all know this is the sign of a giant Florida storm this year.

JB has lowered his storm total number for the Western Atlantic (he purposely excludes 94L type sub-tropical Azores systems) from 10 to 9, and says the long range Euro forecasts for later this season show the highest mean pressures in the tropical Atlantic since 1983.

The dullest season in the satellite era. JB thinks warmer Atlantic changes the numbers, but I have a gut 9 is too high.

Now, I know SE Texas had some 1983 action, but I was being transferred for my job in August 1983 from the North Chicago-Waukegan Metroplex to Orlando, FL 32813. I didn't even know Texas had a storm until months later. No interweb, no cable, just local Orlando TV. I was, despite limited info, excited about hurricane season in Florida.


I do remember, however, Christmas Season 1983 was cold enough in Orlando that the automatic sprinklers left icicles on the palm trees.

So perhaps a Florida Christmas Snow Miracle is in the offing.

[Lurker]

If we have a developing El Nino Modoki we could have a few storms retired this year.

Who's fooling who? We all know this is the sign of a giant Florida storm this year.

JB has lowered his storm total number for the Western Atlantic (he purposely excludes 94L type sub-tropical Azores systems) from 10 to 9, and says the long range Euro forecasts for later this season show the highest mean pressures in the tropical Atlantic since 1983.

The dullest season in the satellite era. JB thinks warmer Atlantic changes the numbers, but I have a gut 9 is too high.

Now, I know SE Texas had some 1983 action, but I was being transferred for my job in August 1983 from the North Chicago-Waukegan Metroplex to Orlando, FL 32813. I didn't even know Texas had a storm until months later. No interweb, no cable, just local Orlando TV. I was, despite limited info, excited about hurricane season in Florida.


I do remember, however, Christmas Season 1983 was cold enough in Orlando that the automatic sprinklers left icicles on the palm trees.

So perhaps a Florida Christmas Snow Miracle is in the offing.

[jinftl]

At the beginning of August 2004, Dr. Gray lowered his forecast for the rest of the season due in part to el nino conditions that existed at that time. A week later Charley hit Punta Gorda....and the rest was history we all know for Florida for the next 6 weeks.

And let's not forget the best example...i mean you couldn't make this up even it so 'drives the point home'.....1992 season. First named storm in mid-August. 7 storms the whole season. Has dud and 'see you in '93' written all over it.....except that first storm was one of 3 landfalling Cat 5's in U.S. history. Nuff said.

What will be will be....but it is usual 2-4 weeks after the season cancel thoughts...or concerns...are raised that things start to take off...and by then we will be talking model runs, pros and cons, and things will get heated...that is when this board is really alive!

[Ed Mahmoud]

If we have a developing El Nino Modoki we could have a few storms retired this year.

Who's fooling who? We all know this is the sign of a giant Florida storm this year.

JB has lowered his storm total number for the Western Atlantic (he purposely excludes 94L type sub-tropical Azores systems) from 10 to 9, and says the long range Euro forecasts for later this season show the highest mean pressures in the tropical Atlantic since 1983.

The dullest season in the satellite era. JB thinks warmer Atlantic changes the numbers, but I have a gut 9 is too high.

Now, I know SE Texas had some 1983 action, but I was being transferred for my job in August 1983 from the North Chicago-Waukegan Metroplex to Orlando, FL 32813. I didn't even know Texas had a storm until months later. No interweb, no cable, just local Orlando TV. I was, despite limited info, excited about hurricane season in Florida.


I do remember, however, Christmas Season 1983 was cold enough in Orlando that the automatic sprinklers left icicles on the palm trees.

So perhaps a Florida Christmas Snow Miracle is in the offing.

Supposedly cooler than normal water surrounds the warmer than normal Equatorial temperatures in a pseudo-EN event, and I don't see that on the anamoly charts.

But Florida is as likely, maybe more likely, to have a 'big one' this year in a season of fewer, but further North and closer to land developers.

Everytime I visit the ENSO thread, temp anamolies seem to be meeting or beating model forecasts from a few months ago.

I know this isn't 1997, but the magnitude of that warm ENSO must have been grossly underforecast, for Dr. Gray, who is well aware of the ENSO and its effects on season totals, busted hugely, as I recall.

[jinftl]

Two conversations going on here...one is about the relative inactivity that climatology shows takes place at the point of the season we are in and the other is about the el nino impact not be factored in as much as it should in lowering season forecast #s. I don't believe we are not up to the "E" letter by July 4th because of an underestimated el nino. Put it this way, there is always shear to varying degrees at all times....and shear values range from low to high in places right now. As they would in any season.

We are part way through the 1st inning....way too soon to be explaining why a team won or less the entire ball game.

[cycloneye]

All the talk is about the North Atlantic,but what about the Eastern Pacific that has also a slow start with only one named system so far. It was supposed to be active based on warm ENSO,but so far it is not living to those expectations.My question about the EPAC is,by July 4th in a normal season,how the EPAC should be in terms of named storms?

[Lurker]

I believe it is 3 named storms up to this point.

All the talk is about the North Atlantic,but what about the Eastern Pacific that has also a slow start with only one named system so far. It was supposed to be active based on warm ENSO,but so far it is not living to those expectations.My question about the EPAC is,by July 4th in a normal season,how the EPAC should be in terms of named storms?

[Sanibel]

The last wave off Africa is thin but is sticking better than the others. It should dissipate but could be a sign of conditions slowly becoming more favorable.

[Ptarmigan]

JB has lowered his storm total number for the Western Atlantic (he purposely excludes 94L type sub-tropical Azores systems) from 10 to 9, and says the long range Euro forecasts for later this season show the highest mean pressures in the tropical Atlantic since 1983.

The dullest season in the satellite era. JB thinks warmer Atlantic changes the numbers, but I have a gut 9 is too high.

Now, I know SE Texas had some 1983 action, but I was being transferred for my job in August 1983 from the North Chicago-Waukegan Metroplex to Orlando, FL 32813. I didn't even know Texas had a storm until months later. No interweb, no cable, just local Orlando TV. I was, despite limited info, excited about hurricane season in Florida.


I do remember, however, Christmas Season 1983 was cold enough in Orlando that the automatic sprinklers left icicles on the palm trees.

So perhaps a Florida Christmas Snow Miracle is in the offing.

1983 was very inactive and El Nino was fading that time. Is there any data to find the mean pressure for the Tropical Atlantic?

[crownweather]

I've been looking at the archived SOI numbers and have found some interesting things. Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

The first thing I looked at were the numbers strictly for May and June (2009: -5.1 in May & -2.3 for June) only and came up with two "analog" years, 1894 (May: -5.1, June: -1.5) and 1935 (May: -6.6, June: -2.3). Both years had low overall numbers, but significant hurricane US landfalls.

The second item I looked at were the first six months of the year as a whole, where the first 4 months were positive and May and June were negative and came up with the following "analog" years: 1898, 1899, 1911, 1925, 1939 and 2006. 1898 and 1899 were both pretty destructive for the US coastline. 1911 had 6 storms with 2 hurricane US landfalls. 1925 had only 2 storms! and both made landfall. 1939 had 5 storms with 2 tropical storm US landfalls and 1 hurricane US landfall. Finally, not much to say about 2006, except fairly quiet with all storms making landfall as tropical storms with no US hurricane landfalls.

Take a look at the SOI numbers and see what you think. This isn't a forecast to what '09 may hold, but is a quick analysis of just the SOI numbers.

[Cookie]

We're bored, not panicking.

I agree.

this has been a long few months.

[HurricaneBill]

All the talk is about the North Atlantic,but what about the Eastern Pacific that has also a slow start with only one named system so far. It was supposed to be active based on warm ENSO,but so far it is not living to those expectations.My question about the EPAC is,by July 4th in a normal season,how the EPAC should be in terms of named storms?

Shades of 1977? (Quiet in Atlantic, EPAC, and WPAC)

[OpieStorm]

JB has lowered his storm total number for the Western Atlantic (he purposely excludes 94L type sub-tropical Azores systems) from 10 to 9, and says the long range Euro forecasts for later this season show the highest mean pressures in the tropical Atlantic since 1983.

Lowering his numbers before mid July? Wow, talk about no patience. Now if it were mid August and it was this dead then yeah, but its early July and its not abnormal at all to see nothing up til this point. Another example of how the recent active seasons still have us spoiled. I'm not saying this is going to be a busy season but I've been tracking hurricanes long enough to know not to make a assumption as early as July.

[wxman57]

Lowering his numbers before mid July? Wow, talk about no patience. Now if it were mid August and it was this dead then yeah, but its early July and its not abnormal at all to see nothing up til this point. Another example of how the recent active seasons still have us spoiled. I'm not saying this is going to be a busy season but I've been tracking hurricanes long enough to know not to make a assumption as early as July.

He's basing the lowering on current data which indicate that conditions will continue to be less favorable for development through September. New predictions of stronger high pressure across the Atlantic means more shear. And El Nino continues to strengthen. It's less of a guess now that El Nino will appear and more of a reality. So the fact that the Atlantic hasn't had a named storm so far is irrelevant as far as the decision to lower the prediction.

[Ed Mahmoud]

94E is still producing outflow boundaries, and storms are scarce near the center, but it is looking better and better.

And the GFS has a day 15 strong wave, maybe a depression, in the tropical Atlantic approaching the Antilles.


Who knows.


But I am curious to see of Orlando has a hard freeze this December.

[wxman57]

94E is still producing outflow boundaries, and storms are scarce near the center, but it is looking better and better.

And the GFS has a day 15 strong wave, maybe a depression, in the tropical Atlantic approaching the Antilles.

Who knows.

But I am curious to see of Orlando has a hard freeze this December.

Having to cite the 15-day GFS to find any potential development is really grasping at straws, as you know. Sometimes it can pick up on potential development a long way out. But whatever its seeing moves off the west coast of Africa in 8 days so it must be in the Indian Ocean now (or Ethiopia). Not exactly a data rich environment.

Ed, where are you located? Your profile has no location.

[Ed Mahmoud]

94E is still producing outflow boundaries, and storms are scarce near the center, but it is looking better and better.

And the GFS has a day 15 strong wave, maybe a depression, in the tropical Atlantic approaching the Antilles.

Who knows.

But I am curious to see of Orlando has a hard freeze this December.

Having to cite the 15-day GFS to find any potential development is really grasping at straws, as you know. Sometimes it can pick up on potential development a long way out. But whatever its seeing moves off the west coast of Africa in 8 days so it must be in the Indian Ocean now (or Ethiopia). Not exactly a data rich environment.

Ed, where are you located? Your profile has no location.

Work in an office near the Galleria, live in unincorporated Harris County but pay Spring ISD taxes. Children go to school in Aldine ISD because Mom is a bilingual 1st grade teacher, and one of the perqs of the teachers is children can attend from out of district.


I think come middle school time children may go to Spring schools, urban and barrio kids are cute in grade school, and my kids look Hispanic and fit in, but they'll probably be safer in Spring schools.

[Sanibel]

Ridin' Mighty Lowwwww...

[MGC]

"All my friends know the low rider"......MGC

[KWT]

Well EPAC upto 2 NS now, though Blanca was of very porr quality and yet again got into very poor conditions, if this season was going to be very active like some have suspecte din the EPAC, I'd have thought systems like Blanca will hold a lot better by this time.