Global- Tropics- So Quiet its Spooky!

[Dionne]

Someone give us a link to our predictions, please.

Do we get a second chance?


I really hope Derek is right!!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I am just waiting around to hear someone post a "season cancel" post right before something pops up. Those are always good for a laugh 30 days into the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

"Season Cancel" would be kind of stupid, I think the minimum in the satellite era is 5 or 6 storms.


We should at least manage that.

[Lurker]

1983 had 4 named storms and an ACE of 17. Lot of shear that year.

I am just waiting around to hear someone post a "season cancel" post right before something pops up. Those are always good for a laugh 30 days into the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

"Season Cancel" would be kind of stupid, I think the minimum in the satellite era is 5 or 6 storms.


We should at least manage that.

[cycloneye]

Three days without a invest around the world.When will the worldwide tropics start to have cyclones that we can track?

[jinftl]

Every year around this time it has become something of a personal dorky tradition for me to say on the board that the tropics are quiet right now, but it has not been a quiet season....because one wouldn't expect much of any activity by this point....it's semantics.

Put another way....name 10 memorable seasons...now how many of those gained their infamous status by what happened through July 2?

Mt. Everest is still left to climb according to the NHC season climatology chart....the point we are at now could still be crossed with flip flops....but rest assured, mountain climbing gear will soon be in order!




From NHC:
Avg Date of First Named System - July 10
Avg. Date of First Hurricane - August 14
Avg. Date of First Cat 3 or Greater - September 3
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

[Sanibel]

The more you look at what is out there the more you realize there's nothing developing. It's really negative out there at the moment.

[jinftl]

Enjoy the long weekend...celebrate the 4th...take a peak at the basin after that...july 4th is not really associated with much in terms of tropical development, but Labor Day sure is...enjoy the quiet of this long weekend...the next one may not be so benign!

The more you look at what is out there the more you realize there's nothing developing. It's really negative out there at the moment.

[KWT]

I wonder what would happen if you shift the dates from 1944-2002 to 1950-2008?

I'm willing to bet thanks to the spate of more recent early starting seasons that average would be earlier.

Also looking at the data it seems we are 23rd slowest start at the moment out of 59 years, which isn't really a big deal yet BUT as Sanibel has mentioned there isn't anything at all that looks like it could develop within the next 7-10 days and by that time we are near mid July...

[jinftl]

does that factor in the td we have seen? Have there been 36 seasons that had more than a td by this point? What is the data that ranks this season #23 to date?

If we have no storms by August 15th, then we can begin to speculate that it may be a weak season in terms of storms....with the andrew exception as a huge exception...and the fact that 90% of south florida hurricanes happen between aug 15 and oct 15....ok...so maybe even aug 15 is too soon a season cancel target...let's shoot for Labor Day weekend...we are one holiday weekend too early

Where would have the 1992 season ranked in terms of slow starts?

In an article from a few years back, Chris Landsea at NOAA was intereviewed on what slow or busy early seasons mean....an excerpt from that article:

In fact, an early start is sometimes followed by a weaker season on the whole, Landsea told LiveScience. In 1997, there were five tropical systems by the first of August, but the remaining season only had three.

This may have something to do with where these systems form. Storms in the early part of the year typically arise out of the subtropics -- between the latitudes 20N and 35N. Storms later in the year usually start farther south in the deep tropics -- between 10N and 20N.

"When conditions are conducive for tropical storms in the subtropics, they are usually unfavorable in the deep tropics, and vice versa," Landsea said.

An early start in the subtropics -- the argument goes -- would imply less conducive conditions in the deep tropics, and therefore less tropical storms for the peak of the season from August to October.

I wonder what would happen if you shift the dates from 1944-2002 to 1950-2008?

I'm willing to bet thanks to the spate of more recent early starting seasons that average would be earlier.

Also looking at the data it seems we are 23rd slowest start at the moment out of 59 years, which isn't really a big deal yet BUT as Sanibel has mentioned there isn't anything at all that looks like it could develop within the next 7-10 days and by that time we are near mid July...

[KWT]

Just systems that have had wind speeds above 35kts. 1992 actually was one of the earliest thanks to a subtropical storm that formed, but take that out of the equation and it would likely be in the top 10 slowest thats for sure.

I'd never say season cancel as it only takes one sly system to get through the net and go on a bad track and we have a memorable season.

What Landsea states is true, in El Nino you tend to get more mid-latitude systems rather then deep systems and often early systems are those mid latitude systems. Still with the 1997 example, its not a fair one to use as the El Nino was the fatest developing El nino ever, not in the same leauge as 90% of the El Ninos.

[jinftl]

point taken...and i don't think you are advertising a 'season cancel' in any way...it is just really early in the game to draw any conclusions of any sort....not to mention i would argue that it is not the actual # of storms, but the # of landfalling storms that really determine what kind of reputation a season will have in terms of being good or bad....15 fish storms would be better than 1 landfalling cat 3 over a major metro area

Just systems that have had wind speeds above 35kts. 1992 actually was one of the earliest thanks to a subtropical storm that formed, but take that out of the equation and it would likely be in the top 10 slowest thats for sure.

I'd never say season cancel as it only takes one sly system to get through the net and go on a bad track and we have a memorable season.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nice turning evident in low clouds with wave approaching 45ºW.


Not a hint of a shower with it, of course. 30 to 40 knots of shear won't help.

A little dry as well...

[Bailey1777]

One word say's it all "BORING"!!!!!!

[jinftl]

enjoy the quiet this holiday weekend...the next holiday weekend (labor day) may not be as boring....

One word say's it all "BORING"!!!!!!

[Macrocane]

These are the dates of formation for the first tropical storm, first hurricane and first major hurricane of Atlantic Hurricane Seasons during El Niño events. As you can see, there are some slow seasons, maybe we will have to wait until august or even september to see a major hurricane, if that's the case it will be a looong wait.

1982 (6 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane):
Hurricane Alberto (Cat 1): June 2
Hurricane Debby (Cat 4): September 13

1987 (7,3,1):
TS two: August 9
Hurricane Arlene (Cat 1): August 10
Hurricane Emily (Cat 3): September 20

1991 (8,4,2):
TS Ana: July 2
Hurricane Bob (Cat 3): August 16

1992 (7,4,1):
STS One: April 21
Hurricane Andrew (Cat 5): August 16

1993 (8,4,1):
TS Arlene: June 18
Hurricane Emily: August 22

1994 (7,3,0):
TS Alberto: June 30
Hurricane Chris (Cat 1): August 16

1997 (8,3,1):
Unnamed STS: June 1st
Hurricane Bill: July 11
Hurricane Erika: September 3

2002 (12,4,2):
TS Arthur: July 14
Hurricane Gustav (Cat 2): September 8
Hurricane Isidore (Cat 3): September 14

2004 (15,9,6)
Hurricane Alex (Cat 3): July 31

2006 (10,5,2)
TS Alberto: June 10
Hurricane Ernesto: August 24
Hurricane Gordon: September 10

[AdamFirst]

I've noticed on this forum everyone panics or gets irritable when a storm doesn't form exactly when June 1st arrives

[cycloneye]

I dont sense panic in this forum.What I see is many people bored as there is nothing to track around the world,but again,I dont see panic here.Also,members are looking to all the data available without going crazy about it to see how the conditions will be by the meat of the Atlantic season.Now,if you look thru other message boards in the net,its already a zoo.

[HURAKAN]

We're bored, not panicking.

[AnnularCane]

I've noticed on this forum everyone panics or gets irritable when a storm doesn't form exactly when June 1st arrives

You exaggerate. We don't usually start panicking and declaring "season cancel" until maybe mid-June.

[Sanibel]

Who's fooling who? We all know this is the sign of a giant Florida storm this year.