Possible Tropical Wave or maybe more per NWS AFD...

[cheezyWXguy]

He predicted an increased risk of Western GOMEX tropical action second half of June, way back in April...

Again, thats like predicting the first day of summer will occur in late june in april.

haha you've got a point

[ronjon]

Convection building in the western caribbean NE of Honduras. If the convection holds overnight, could be investigation worthy tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Ramsdis has a floater for the area.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[BigA]

This is where the NAM and CMC are sniffing, so I figure it's got better than a snowball's chance.

[storm92405]

The WRF is sniffing too in this area. Also the 18Z is hinting at something as well.

[tina25]

Interesting. I am in southwestern FL and earlier today we had an unusual band of strong winds and heavy rain pass through pretty quickly moving northeastern.

[cycloneye]

Jim Cantore at TWC was doing the Tropical Update tonight,and he said,he was impressed by the big flareup,but he said that persistance will be important.Also he said an anticyclone is forming as the TUTT trough retrogrades west.

[HURAKAN]

[lrak]

I don't recall something looking that good on satellite that fast before. The pacific seems to have really fast developement but the atlantic seems to "brew" before it pops. I know a few storms have popped out of no where before and I wonder if this one will stay the night

A big WOW.

[Bailey1777]

Presentation looks really good if we can get a surface reflection I think we got a player. Next question is will it shoot off to the NE or get trapped as high pressure builds in and head more Westward, if the 2nd happens then JB might have a winner.

[tailgater]

The 00z NAM BUT remember it's the NAM, stupid models.

[Shawee]

I don't recall something looking that good on satellite that fast before. The pacific seems to have really fast developement but the atlantic seems to "brew" before it pops. I know a few storms have popped out of no where before and I wonder if this one will stay the night

A big WOW.

more energy/water temp. in gulf to work off of now compared to the average this time of year... could explain the unusually quick flair up? we could use the rain and a good mixing of the GOM! I doubt it will persist, but would NOT bet against it at this point.

Then again, it may just be the eye of the LSU tiger!

[Sanibel]

Can't tell if this is cotton candy flaring up or a fast developer? Has the look in the right place for June.


The last wave did black IR in this spot. Could be a hot spot.

[Hurricaneman13]

Looks like it is persisting a bit. And it looks like it may be trying to organize itself. It looks pretty strong, too. Could this have a chance to develop?

[AdamFirst]

There's already two threads talking about this...I say it poofs by tomorrow afternoon

[Hurricaneman13]

Oh, I'm sorry. I didn't realize that. Should this be closed?

[Derek Ortt]

cloud tops already warming... chances of development quite low

[floridasun78]

let see one if stay togther overnight two were it move if move west or nnw that tell us were it be invest or not

[BigA]

CMC even a bit more bullish in 00z run. Of course, it is the CMC.

[AdamFirst]

We have a code yellow



So for the short term it's something to watch