is that pun jocularity...if not it stands for if i recall correctly.
Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
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lrak
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Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
cheezyWXguy (btw, I forget what IIRC stands for
is that pun jocularity...if not it stands for if i recall correctly.
is that pun jocularity...if not it stands for if i recall correctly.
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brunota2003
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
New NAM shows very healthy looking tropical wave crossing the Yucatan this weekend.
Nothing in the Caribbean really stands out.
However, technically, JB hasn't officially blown the forecast for another week.
Nothing in the Caribbean really stands out.
However, technically, JB hasn't officially blown the forecast for another week.
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Bailey1777
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Don't know how much credit to put into it, but reading all the different sites there are quite a few people who believe the trough extending into the GOM right now is going to split off and leave a low slowly drifting to the SW. This low will supposedly interact with the wave approaching the islands and who know's? Still not sure there's enough June left.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
12Z NAM still brings a very well developed wave Northwest, than West, into the Yucatan this weekend.
If one extrapolates the motion, it is no threat to Texas even if the NAM were taken seriously as a tropical model.
But JB still has a puncher's chance. 6 days left!
If one extrapolates the motion, it is no threat to Texas even if the NAM were taken seriously as a tropical model.
But JB still has a puncher's chance. 6 days left!
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Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
All I know is that we need a serious break from the heat...it's getting unbearable here. We broke record at 101 yesterday. Something has got to give, 3 weeks with no rain. I can only imagine how hot it will be in August here! 
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HouTXmetro
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Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
Sjones wrote:All I know is that we need a serious break from the heat...it's getting unbearable here. We broke record at 101 yesterday. Something has got to give, 3 weeks with no rain. I can only imagine how hot it will be in August here!
Where do you live? Officially Houston has gone 32 days without rain at BUSH Airport.
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HouTXmetro
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Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
Ed Mahmoud wrote:12Z NAM still brings a very well developed wave Northwest, than West, into the Yucatan this weekend.
If one extrapolates the motion, it is no threat to Texas even if the NAM were taken seriously as a tropical model.
But JB still has a puncher's chance. 6 days left!
No Chance unless the Ridge completely breaks down and that ain't happening.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
HouTXmetro wrote:Ed Mahmoud wrote:12Z NAM still brings a very well developed wave Northwest, than West, into the Yucatan this weekend.
If one extrapolates the motion, it is no threat to Texas even if the NAM were taken seriously as a tropical model.
But JB still has a puncher's chance. 6 days left!
No Chance unless the Ridge completely breaks down and that ain't happening.
JB didn't say Texas back in April, he said Western Gulf. If a system did develop and hit Vera Cruz, that is still the Western Gulf.
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Bailey1777
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Ed Mahmoud
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Bailey1777 wrote:When he say's system, is that named, or any old depression?
I don't know. GFS "sees" the NAM wave, lowers pressures a little in the BoC, but nothing resembling a tropical depression, even.
It closes off a very, very weak low at the 850 mb level (850 mb winds well below what would be considered TD strength), and lands that low just South of BRO in 1 week.
Never close to closing a surface low.
Not even a lot of rain.
Unofficial betting odds, Bastardi's Storm, starting from the outside now at 25 to 1 against.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
Just watched the video, the 0Z and 12Z NAM have given JB new hope he can pull out a fourth quarter field goal. Not how he put it.
But he is encouraged by the NAM, even as he admits it is not a preferred tropical model.
But he is encouraged by the NAM, even as he admits it is not a preferred tropical model.
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Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
HouTXmetro wrote:Sjones wrote:All I know is that we need a serious break from the heat...it's getting unbearable here. We broke record at 101 yesterday. Something has got to give, 3 weeks with no rain. I can only imagine how hot it will be in August here!
Where do you live? Officially Houston has gone 32 days without rain at BUSH Airport.
Southeast Texas, Beaumont area
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southerngale
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Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
Sjones wrote:All I know is that we need a serious break from the heat...it's getting unbearable here. We broke record at 101 yesterday. Something has got to give, 3 weeks with no rain. I can only imagine how hot it will be in August here!
102, actually.
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
SG...i agree...we under a heat advisory now....long dry summer im afraid
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
Ok, it again is only the NAM, but it is almost bed time.
And the area Joe has been pinpointing in video is flaring up just a bit.
And the area Joe has been pinpointing in video is flaring up just a bit.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
I lovingly personalized a close-up IR loop- NASA satellite page, like a "Build-A-Bear" workshop for your PC.
The NOAA SSD site has a better IR color scale, and the size of the coldest tops, colder than -70ºC but not as cold as -80ºC has shrunk a little the last few frames. Beginning of the fizzle, or will it still be going in the morning?
"Quien sabes?", as they say in France...
The NOAA SSD site has a better IR color scale, and the size of the coldest tops, colder than -70ºC but not as cold as -80ºC has shrunk a little the last few frames. Beginning of the fizzle, or will it still be going in the morning?
"Quien sabes?", as they say in France...
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Re: Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30
Looks like a fast former on satellite here folks. What do we have here? I said to myself this morning "check it later". Man!
The N wind we had for 12 days suddenly shifted to S and boom!
The N wind we had for 12 days suddenly shifted to S and boom!
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