TD8 Today??

[chadtm80]

Will Invest 90L be TD8 Tommorow??

[JetMaxx]

Why not....90L will be upgraded to TD 8 at 11 p.m. tomorrow night; and to tropical storm Erika at 5 p.m. Friday evening August 1st -- but unfortunately not in time to tie the all-time record of 5 named storms before the end of July

PW

[cycloneye]

It will be upgraded to TD#8 at 5 AM on friday morning.

[Rainband]

I say by 11pm!!

[ameriwx2003]

I will say TD# 8 AT 5 pm Thursday:):)

[Stormsfury]

I voted no...not because I don't think it'll be a depression soon ... I think it should be classified as a depression tonight at 11 pm.

IMO, it's already a depression. I already can see straight west winds on the SSW side of the convection and if anything, IMO, the LLC is already closed off and there's enough convection to classify 90L, even if it's only 30 mph. IMO, based on satellite imagery, the MLC is actually further east than the LLC. The stronger mid-level (easterly shear) may actually allow the MLC and LLC to stack together (if my estimate of the LLC versus the MLC is correct). Things are coming together folks ... 90l continues to exhibit a very well established equatorial outflow channel, plenty of convection, and moisture to feed upon. The northern semcircle is choked a bit by easterly shear but the upper-levels appear fine.

SF

[Stephanie]

The visible satellite in motion shows a nice little spin to her also now. It does look like the clouds are starting to rotate around a low!

[Lindaloo]

I believe it was a depression this morning. But I voted yes and believe it will be upgraded at 5 a.m.

[Sarah--Cb]

I think that it will be upgraded to TD 8 11:30 AM Thursday.

Sarah

[ColdFront77]

I assume you mean that Tropical Depression #8 will be declared at 11:00 AM Eastern. The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued at 11:30 AM Eastern.

[Rainband]

I voted no...not because I don't think it'll be a depression soon ... I think it should be classified as a depression tonight at 11 pm.

IMO, it's already a depression. I already can see straight west winds on the SSW side of the convection and if anything, IMO, the LLC is already closed off and there's enough convection to classify 90L, even if it's only 30 mph. IMO, based on satellite imagery, the MLC is actually further east than the LLC. The stronger mid-level (easterly shear) may actually allow the MLC and LLC to stack together (if my estimate of the LLC versus the MLC is correct). Things are coming together folks ... 90l continues to exhibit a very well established equatorial outflow channel, plenty of convection, and moisture to feed upon. The northern semcircle is choked a bit by easterly shear but the upper-levels appear fine.

SF

HMMM 11pm sound familiar

[The_Cycloman_PR]

TD tomorow at 5:00pm

Cycloman

[ALhurricane]

I think the NHC will declare this a TD at 5pm tomorrow.

The system is looking quite impressive, however, there is some definite easterly shear noted with all the convection to the west. Very nice outflow pattern setting up, especially on the equatorial side. Erika will be soon to follow.

I noticed on the quickscat yesterday that the monsoon trough has come a good deal northward. This provides a favorable condition for these tropical waves to spin up nicely.

Let the CV season begin!

[vbhoutex]

If it isn't already a TD, it is so close to it that it doesn't matter!! IMHO, it has been a TD all day. Quikscat, showed a closed or almost closed circulation this am. It has plenty to feed on ahead of it and very little hostility to deal with. I imagine Erika will follow within 36 hours of declaration as a TD at 5pm tomorrow. I feel like NHC is taking this one very conservatively. If they get a good quikscat pass earlier in the day tomorrow they might declare it earlier than 5pm. It appears set in stone for TS status within 48 hours, so the question them becomes "Is there going to be a weakness in the ridge that will take this TS poleward?" That remains to be answered before we have to "worry" about this system, but it sure is giving us some good practice!!

[ColdFront77]

I agree with you David. The system does looking "promising" for development. I don't recall the last time the National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center has not been conservative. It does make sense.

[vbhoutex]

I agree with you David. The system does looking "promising" for development. I don't recall the last time the National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center has not been conservative. It does make sense.

It is definitely smarter to CYA when you are an official agency that millions depend on for good information to make decisions concerning life and property. I may "call" a storm before NHC, as I basically have tonight, but that is an individual opinion that is not to be used for any purpose other than secondary information and/or entertainment(which it could be if I am way wrong!!). The NHC has come the closest I think I've ever seen to not being conservative with this system when they stated that it should be come a TD within 24hrs!!!! They actually gave a confined time period!! They certainly are the experts and have WAY MORE DATA available to them than I will ever have, much less be able to analyze.

[Sarah--Cb]

I think that pretty much everyone agree's -This system will be TD 8-, but the big question is when... AFter looking at images and reading dicussions/tropical outlooks from the NHC, I think that this system will become TD 8 around 1:00 PM.

It'll be interesting to see what happens! See y'all later!

-Sarah Barrick-
KLBB, Lubbock, Texas
TTUSIT/TTUHIT

[Hurrilurker]

Wow, Thursday morning's early visible floater loop shows a very definite spin, and a condensing of the center. I'm no expert, but even I can tell it's looking impressive early.