Severe weather outbreak: June 17 - 19

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS / SERN NEB/ NRN MO / SRN INTO CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191737Z - 191900Z

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 19-20Z.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER NWRN WI SWWD THROUGH CNTRL IA TO WEAKER...SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE NEAR FNB. THE FRONT THEN TRAILED SWWD INTO CNTRL KS.
TSTMS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN INTENSIFYING ALONG OR PERHAPS JUST IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT FROM W OF BIE TO NEAR OMA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
NEWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF NEB/KS.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND RESIDUAL STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAVE SLOWED THE RATE OF DESTABILIZATION
THIS MORNING WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE
OF 65-75 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS...CONTINUED INSOLATION AND
DYNAMIC MIDLEVEL COOLING ATTENDANT TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SERVE
TO HASTEN THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
INCREASING TO 2000-4000 J/KG.

LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP...WSWLY FLOW PREVAILS FROM NERN KS EWD
THROUGH NRN MO...WHEREAS SURFACE WINDS OVER SRN/CNTRL IA HAVE
REMAINED MORE SLY/SELY...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
THUS...WHILE BOWING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY BE THE
DOMINANT MODE...SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER IA AS AIR
MASS DESTABILIZES IN WAKE OF EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 06/19/2009


ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

[Dave]

COOK IL-
1256 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL COOK COUNTY...

AT 1254 PM...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EVANSTON TO
DOUGLAS PARK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
NAVY PIER...AND MEIGS FIELD BY 100 PM...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHICAGO.

MOVE INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE LINE OF STORMS HAS PASSED.

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN ITASKA IN
DUPAGE COUNTY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN THE
PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

[Dave]

COOK IL-
112 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL COOK COUNTY EXPIRES AT
115 PM CDT...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND NO LONGER POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE PREVIOUSLY WARNED AREA.

HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL STILL BE A DANGER WITH
THESE STORMS UNTIL THEY PASS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.

[Dave]

No active thunderstorm or tornado warnings at this time in the USA. 1 flash flood warning in effect until 2 pm cdt for Cook, DuPage, & Lake counties in IL still active.

Turning to watch central Indiana & SE NE/NE Kansas now..stay tuned.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
128 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GAGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHWESTERN OTOE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 125 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STERLING...OR 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BEATRICE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STERLING...BURR AND COOK

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN IOWA
EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHERN MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH OF
SHENANDOAH IOWA TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF OTTUMWA IOWA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 477...WW 478...

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST
KS INTO SOUTHEAST NE...AND INTENSIFICATION OF ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 3000
J/KG...AND STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 40-50 KT. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WITH SUPERCELL
AND BOW ECHO STRUCTURES...WITH ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS AS COLD POOLS MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE.
PRIMARY THREAT EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH LARGE
HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...WEISS

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI / NRN AND CNTRL IND / NWRN OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 478...

VALID 191837Z - 192000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 478 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY NRN PORTIONS OF
WW 478. THIS THREAT MAY DEVELOP E OF WW AREA BY 19Z AND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW OVER PARTS OF OH.

AS OF 1830Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS
ORIENTED LARGELY W-E FROM NEAR CHI EWD TO ALONG THE MI/IND BORDER
WITH A GENERAL SYSTEM MOTION OF 280/35-40 KT. THUS FAR...RESIDUAL
EFFECTS OF NOCTURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS WITHIN IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS OVER NRN
IND. HOWEVER...3-HR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS INDICATE FAIRLY
RAPID WARMING AND MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM FROM PARTS OF NERN IND INTO NRN OH. THESE PROCESSES CAN
ALSO BE INFERRED BY THE GRADUAL NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS FIELD
THROUGH CNTRL IND AND SWRN OH.

CURRENT PROFILER OVER NWRN IND CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50-60 KT THROUGH 6 KM/...WHICH
WHEN COUPLED WITH THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS...MAY SUPPORT A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING MCS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT APPEARS THAT
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

..MEAD.. 06/19/2009


ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL OK...WRN PORTIONS OF N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191840Z - 192015Z

A THREAT FOR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SWRN/CENTRAL OK AS WELL AS
WRN PORTIONS OF N TX. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING E
ACROSS NEB/KS...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 70+ KT MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK /PER REGIONAL PROFILER NETWORK/. THE RRQ OF THIS UPPER JET IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...PROVIDING A
SOURCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION.
MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE /POSSIBLY AN MCV/ EMBEDDED WITHIN
MOIST/TROPICAL SLY FLOW REGIME OVER WRN TX WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING
NWD DURING THE AFTERNOON TOWARD WRN PORTIONS OF N TX AND SWRN OK.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF OK HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM
THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BY LATE MORNING...WHILE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS AIRMASS IS
CONTRIBUTING TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS 12Z OUN RAOB
YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM SLIGHTLY...WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN
WEAKENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO COLD FRONT LOCATED NW OF THE
REGION...COMBINATION OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER AIR FEATURES AND
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY WITH APPROACHING W TX DISTURBANCE. THOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...30-40 KT MID LEVEL
FLOW MAY RESULT IN MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..GARNER.. 06/19/2009


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
442 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHWESTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL MIAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
NORTHWESTERN WABASH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROCHESTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE STORM INCLUDE...
AKRON...BEAVER DAM AND SEVASTOPOL...
BEAVER DAM LAKE AND BURKET...
DISKO...
SILVER LAKE...
CLAYPOOL...
LAKETON...

[Dave]

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
400 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
EAST CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.

* AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR FORT MADISON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...OR NEAR FORT
MADISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WEVER...AUGUSTA AND SOUTH AUGUSTA AROUND 405 PM CDT...
SPRING GROVE AND LOMAX AROUND 410 PM CDT...
CARTHAGE LAKE...BURLINGTON REGIONAL AIRPORT...HEAPSVILLE AND
BURLINGTON AROUND 415 PM CDT...
GULFPORT AROUND 420 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM
OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

[Dave]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
358 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SCHUYLER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.

* AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11
MILES WEST OF BROOKLYN...OR ABOUT 21 MILES WEST OF RUSHVILLE...AND
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BROOKLYN...
LITTLETON...
RUSHVILLE...

ANOTHER LOCATION IN THIS WARNING IS...BROOKLYN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

[Dave]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN IA...NERN MO...CENTRAL/NRN
IL AND IN..OH...NRN KY... SWRN PA AND WRN WV...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDWEST/OH
VLY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST WAS TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT IN
SVR PROBABILITIES ALONG NRN EDGE OF MDT RISK ACROSS NRN PARTS OF
IL/IND/OH. ALSO ADDED LOW SVR WIND PROBABILITIES IN SERN AZ/SWRN NM
AND REMOVED SLGT RISK /BUT RETAINED LOW SVR PROBABILITIES/ IN
MID-ATLANTIC/NC.

...CORN BELT TO THE OH VLY...
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER NWRN MO...SRN IA AND SERN NEB AT MID-AFTN.
EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG/N OF OVERNIGHT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTO CNTRL AND NRN IL BY LATE THIS AFTN. PROFILERS OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS CONFIRM THE WELL-ADVERTISED 60 KT WLY MID-LVL JET
AND THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A BOW
ECHO MCS WITH WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT DMGG WINDS. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AS STORMS LINK UP WITH NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND/OR PRE-SQUALL LINE STORMS...AUGMENTING CHANNELS OF
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE BOW. EXPECT THIS SVR
MCS TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...REACHING THE
MID/UPR OH VLY BY 12Z. AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COMPLEX...OTHER STORMS
/ISOLD SUPERCELLS/ ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF OF BOUNDARIES IN THE
WARM SECTOR. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...ISOLD TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL RISKS WILL EXIST BEFORE
THE PRIMARY SHOW UNFOLDS LATER.

...UPR MIDWEST/UPR MS VLY...
THOUGH COMPARATIVELY LESS UNSTABLE THAN AT LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP BOTH ALONG A WEAK FRONT/SFC
LOW ACROSS CNTRL WI AND PRIMARY SYNOPTIC CDFNT OVER PARTS OF MN SWWD
INTO NERN NEB/NWRN IA THIS AFTN/EVE. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE AT
LEAST ISOLD HAIL/DMGG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN WI
AND...EVENTUALLY LWR MI OVERNIGHT.

...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...
MID-LVL IMPULSE OVER NRN SONORA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD INTO SRN AZ
TONIGHT. JET-INDUCED CIRRUS HAS KEPT STRONG DESTABILIZATION AT BAY
THUS FAR...BUT EXPECT THINNING TO OCCUR ALONG WITH CONTINUED
INJECTION OF LLVL MOISTURE NWD FROM NRN MEXICO. RESULTANT INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY AMIDST MODESTLY SHEARED COLUMN WILL YIELD ISOLD STG
STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MICROBURSTS.

...VA/NC...
TERRAIN-INDUCED HIGH CLOUDS AND REMNANT COLD POOL HAS KEPT TSTMS
FROM FORMING DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE IS STILL A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH AND/OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...BUT THE THREAT SEEMS LOW. UPSTREAM MIDWEST MCS/S THAT
BECOME ORGANIZED LATER TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT CREST THE CNTRL
APLCNS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE REMOVED THE SLGT
RISK...BUT MAINTAINED LOW SVR PROBABILITIES.

..RACY.. 06/19/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009/

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH IN THE WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATELY STRONG
MID/HIGH FLOW ARCING FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. MAIN UPPER FEATURE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WILL BE A STRONGER IMPULSE MOVING FROM CO
ENEWD INTO IA BY EVENING...AND THEN EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM
WRN UPPER MI SWWD INTO ERN/SRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

...SRN MO RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...
SEVERE MCS IN EXTREME SRN WI/NRN IL AT MID MORNING IS LIKELY TO
SHIFT E/ESEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM NRN IL ESEWD INTO CENTRAL OH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50-60 KT AND
STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND INSTABILITY MAY
SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS COMPLEX AS FAR EAST AS SWRN PA/WV.


SOUTH OF THIS COMPLEX...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LOWER TO MID 70
DEWPOINTS/ WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS.
HEATING OF THIS VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY...MLCAPES FROM
2500-3500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INITIATE AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WIND FIELDS AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS. WHILE
HAIL...AND SOME TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE DISCRETE
STORMS...THE WIND THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO SEVERE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/S BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR ALSO FAVORS WIDESPREAD AND
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MCS/S
MOVE RAPIDLY EWD. CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF CURRENT
MCS/BOUNDARIES...OR ROUGHLY FROM SRN/CENTRAL IL EWD INTO NRN KY/SRN
OH AND WV.

...WV/NC...
LEADING MCS MOVING THROUGH WV THIS MORNING HAD WEAKENED AS IT
ENCOUNTERED THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THESE STORMS
WILL REINTENSIFY AS THEY SHIFT SEWD INTO SRN VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON.
NEGATIVES FOR REINTENSIFICATION ARE RELATIVELY WARM 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. FACTORS FAVORING STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE ARE STORMS MOVING SEWD ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS AND
WLY LOW LEVEL JET SUPPLYING GREATER INSTABILITY.

...SERN MN/WI/UPPER MI...
THOUGH CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION/HEATING THUS
FAR...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE LIFTING AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE
WEAK HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MAY YIELD SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

...SRN PLAINS...
WITHIN MOIST TROPICAL PLUME...AN MCV WAS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY NEAR SJT AT 15Z...MOVING NWD AT 25-30 KT. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON ERN SIDE OF THICKER
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S...AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE GUSTY WINDS. SINCE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ORGANIZED...GIVEN 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPES AROUND 2500
J/KG...A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED FOR A WIND THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OK AND NWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON.

...GREAT BASIN...
AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW...A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
A FEW HIGH BASED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

[Dave]

FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-WABASH IN-MIAMI IN-
507 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR EXTREME
NORTH CENTRAL MIAMI...NORTHWESTERN WABASH...SOUTHWESTERN KOSCIUSKO
AND EAST CENTRAL FULTON COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

AT 505 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BEAVER DAM...OR ABOUT 8 MILES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
BEAVER DAM LAKE...
DISKO...
SILVER LAKE AND CLAYPOOL...
LAKETON...

TRAINED SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED A ROTATING WALL CLOUD WITH THIS
STORM.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
410 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
MCDONOUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT.

* AT 408 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR
COLMAR...OR 10 MILES EAST OF CARTHAGE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TENNESSEE...COLCHESTER AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF FANDON AROUND 420
PM CDT...
MACOMB AND SCIOTA AROUND 430 PM CDT...
GOOD HOPE AROUND 435 PM CDT...
BARDOLPH AROUND 440 PM CDT...
BUSHNELL AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW PHILADELPHIA AROUND 445 PM
CDT...
PRAIRIE CITY AROUND 450 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN TREES AND
POWER POLES. MOVE INDOORS TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
424 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHERN KEOKUK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
NORTHERN VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

* AT 421 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM HAYESVILLE TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DOUDS/LEANDO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SIGOURNEY TO 13 MILES
WEST OF KEOSAUQUA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
RICHLAND...PACKWOOD...LIBERTYVILLE AND DOUDS/LEANDO AROUND 430 PM
CDT...
FAIRFIELD AND BIRMINGHAM AROUND 435 PM CDT...
STOCKPORT...PLEASANT PLAIN AND BRIGHTON AROUND 440 PM CDT...
LOCKRIDGE AROUND 445 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN TREES AND
POWER POLES.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
525 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
NORTHERN WABASH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
NORTHWESTERN HUNTINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
SOUTHWESTERN WHITLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 521 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR DISKO...OR 8 MILES WEST OF NORTH MANCHESTER...AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE STORM INCLUDE...
NORTH MANCHESTER...
LAKETON...
IJAMSVILLE...
LIBERTY MILLS...
URBANA...
BRACKEN...

TRAINED SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED A ROTATING WALL CLOUD WITH THIS
STORM.

[Dave]

Huntington cty Indiana cell

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
437 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

* AT 435 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR SMITHSHIRE...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONMOUTH...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PONEMAH...KIRKWOOD AND ROSEVILLE AROUND 445 PM CDT...
LARCHLAND AROUND 450 PM CDT...
ORMONDE...NEMO...MONMOUTH AND MONMOUTH MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AROUND 455
PM CDT...
PHELPS AND BERWICK AROUND 500 PM CDT...

[Dave]