Current observations at my house:
Humidity: 88%; Dewpoint: 65F; Temp: 70F; Winds: Calm; Pressure: 29.99 Rising
*Add thunderstorm moving in at 1025 hrs.
Severe weather outbreak: June 17 - 19
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHEASTERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY
NORTHWESTERN BULLITT COUNTY
NORTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTY
MEADE COUNTY
WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY
FLOYD COUNTY
HARRISON COUNTY
SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY
* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT/1000 AM CDT/
* AT 1018 AM EDT/918 AM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BRADFORD TO NEW AMSTERDAM TO GERALD...
OR FROM 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE TO 33 MILES WEST OF
LOUISVILLE TO 28 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCKPORT...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
GEORGETOWN AND GALENA AROUND 1030 AM EDT...
EDWARDSVILLE AND FLOYDS KNOBS AROUND 1035 AM EDT...
SHIVELY AND NEW BOSTON AROUND 1040 AM EDT...
LOUISVILLE AROUND 1050 AM EDT...
FAIRDALE AND FORT KNOX AROUND 1050 AM EDT...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHEASTERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY
NORTHWESTERN BULLITT COUNTY
NORTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTY
MEADE COUNTY
WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY
FLOYD COUNTY
HARRISON COUNTY
SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY
* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT/1000 AM CDT/
* AT 1018 AM EDT/918 AM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BRADFORD TO NEW AMSTERDAM TO GERALD...
OR FROM 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE TO 33 MILES WEST OF
LOUISVILLE TO 28 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCKPORT...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
GEORGETOWN AND GALENA AROUND 1030 AM EDT...
EDWARDSVILLE AND FLOYDS KNOBS AROUND 1035 AM EDT...
SHIVELY AND NEW BOSTON AROUND 1040 AM EDT...
LOUISVILLE AROUND 1050 AM EDT...
FAIRDALE AND FORT KNOX AROUND 1050 AM EDT...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
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Dave
- Retired Staff
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- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Upgrading to moderate risk for central KY/east TN/maybe north GA at 1630Z - looks like a derecho underway there...
Just saw this. I'll be back later, the festival is still open in a town south of me, have about 22,000 people outside & in tents/campers with a band of thunderstorms moving in. Worst thing I see in this line is cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy rain so I need to monitor our local area for now and try to keep people from diving into the trees to get away from the lightning.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Re:
ai9d wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Upgrading to moderate risk for central KY/east TN/maybe north GA at 1630Z - looks like a derecho underway there...
Just saw this. I'll be back later, the festival is still open in a town south of me, have about 22,000 people outside & in tents/campers with a band of thunderstorms moving in. Worst thing I see in this line is cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy rain so I need to monitor our local area for now and try to keep people from diving into the trees to get away from the lightning.
Good luck since you know things as well as anyone there!
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe weather outbreak: June 17 - 19
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF NORTHERN GEORGIA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
PARTS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ATHENS
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460...
DISCUSSION...BOW ECHO/DERECHO IS MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD CENTRAL KY
DRIVEN BY A 60-70 KT REAR INFLOW JET. MORNING SOUNDINGS SWD INTO GA
INDICATE THAT POTENTIALLY A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE CURRENT
ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33045.
...HALES
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF NORTHERN GEORGIA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
PARTS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ATHENS
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460...
DISCUSSION...BOW ECHO/DERECHO IS MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD CENTRAL KY
DRIVEN BY A 60-70 KT REAR INFLOW JET. MORNING SOUNDINGS SWD INTO GA
INDICATE THAT POTENTIALLY A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE CURRENT
ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33045.
...HALES
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 181442Z - 181615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MCS OVER NERN IA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE E/SE OF WW 460 AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED.
AN INTENSE TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG SRN END OF MCS /OVER
HARDIN AND MARSHALL COUNTIES AS OF 1430Z/ WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH
N-CNTRL INTO NERN IA THIS MORNING. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING
BOW ECHO OVER SRN IND. HOWEVER...20-30 KT SWLY LLJ /PER DSM VWP/ IS
MAINTAINING THE INFLUX OF A VERY MOIST AND STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR MASS
IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH MUCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG PER 12Z TOP
SOUNDING.
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SWLY LLJ WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS
SAME GENERAL AREA WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN MCS SEWD INTO PARTS
OF NRN AND CNTRL IL. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES.
..MEAD.. 06/18/2009
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 42349218 42649157 42469056 42058969 41718872 41038891
40438973 40729088 41649211 42349218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 181442Z - 181615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MCS OVER NERN IA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE E/SE OF WW 460 AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED.
AN INTENSE TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG SRN END OF MCS /OVER
HARDIN AND MARSHALL COUNTIES AS OF 1430Z/ WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH
N-CNTRL INTO NERN IA THIS MORNING. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING
BOW ECHO OVER SRN IND. HOWEVER...20-30 KT SWLY LLJ /PER DSM VWP/ IS
MAINTAINING THE INFLUX OF A VERY MOIST AND STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR MASS
IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH MUCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG PER 12Z TOP
SOUNDING.
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SWLY LLJ WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS
SAME GENERAL AREA WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN MCS SEWD INTO PARTS
OF NRN AND CNTRL IL. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES.
..MEAD.. 06/18/2009
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 42349218 42649157 42469056 42058969 41718872 41038891
40438973 40729088 41649211 42349218
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
This is unusual: this year I believe has had as many PDS severe thunderstorm watches (this is the 5th I believe) as PDS tornado watches. Usually PDS blue boxes are extremely rare (there was only 1 in each of 2004, 2005 and 2006, none in 2007 and 3 in 2008) while there are 20 or so PDS red boxes in a year.
The derechos sure have been mean this year though!
The derechos sure have been mean this year though!
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brunota2003
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- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
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brunota2003
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- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
Re: Severe weather outbreak: June 17 - 19
In Kentucky:
Louisville, Bowman Field Airport
Lat: 38.23 Lon: -85.67 Elev: 540
Last Update on Jun 18, 10:53 am EDT
Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy
70 °F
(21 °C)
Humidity: 93 %
Wind Speed: W 37 G 56 MPH
Barometer: 30.05" (1016.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 68 °F (20 °C)
Visibility: 1.00 mi.
Louisville, Standiford Field
Lat: 38.19 Lon: -85.73 Elev: 481
Last Update on Jun 18, 10:56 am EDT
Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Fog
66 °F
(19 °C)
Humidity: 96 %
Wind Speed: NW 20 G 54 MPH
Barometer: 30.04" (1016.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 65 °F (18 °C)
Visibility: 0.50 mi.
Louisville, Bowman Field Airport
Lat: 38.23 Lon: -85.67 Elev: 540
Last Update on Jun 18, 10:53 am EDT
Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy
70 °F
(21 °C)
Humidity: 93 %
Wind Speed: W 37 G 56 MPH
Barometer: 30.05" (1016.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 68 °F (20 °C)
Visibility: 1.00 mi.
Louisville, Standiford Field
Lat: 38.19 Lon: -85.73 Elev: 481
Last Update on Jun 18, 10:56 am EDT
Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Fog
66 °F
(19 °C)
Humidity: 96 %
Wind Speed: NW 20 G 54 MPH
Barometer: 30.04" (1016.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 65 °F (18 °C)
Visibility: 0.50 mi.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460...WW 461...
DISCUSSION...FORWARD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX/BOW ECHO ERN
IA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD ALONG AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT AND
WITH INCREASING DAY TIME INSTABILITY COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
COMPLEX TOWARD CENTRAL IL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.
...HALES
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460...WW 461...
DISCUSSION...FORWARD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX/BOW ECHO ERN
IA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD ALONG AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT AND
WITH INCREASING DAY TIME INSTABILITY COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
COMPLEX TOWARD CENTRAL IL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.
...HALES
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Mother Nature keeps fooling the models and the SPC...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181512Z - 181645Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK
AT 1630Z AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER FAR
NERN FL...NAMELY NASSAU...DUVAL INTO BAKER COUNTIES AS OF 1505Z.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV SPAWNED BY
NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAX/TBW
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS GIVEN AMPLE DIABATIC HEATING.
MOREOVER...CURRENT JAX VWP SHOWS 30-35 KT NNWLY WINDS IN THE 3-6 KM
AGL LAYER WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION INTO A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER EMBEDDED STORMS.
..MEAD.. 06/18/2009
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 28748254 29428276 29998258 30288217 30148168 29628136
28988130 28448146 28168184 28358246 28748254
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181512Z - 181645Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK
AT 1630Z AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER FAR
NERN FL...NAMELY NASSAU...DUVAL INTO BAKER COUNTIES AS OF 1505Z.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV SPAWNED BY
NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAX/TBW
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS GIVEN AMPLE DIABATIC HEATING.
MOREOVER...CURRENT JAX VWP SHOWS 30-35 KT NNWLY WINDS IN THE 3-6 KM
AGL LAYER WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION INTO A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER EMBEDDED STORMS.
..MEAD.. 06/18/2009
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 28748254 29428276 29998258 30288217 30148168 29628136
28988130 28448146 28168184 28358246 28748254
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA INTO NJ AND SWD THROUGH THE DELMARVA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181540Z - 181715Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL MD INTO
S-CNTRL/SERN PA WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD/SEWD THIS
AFTERNOON PER 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. AS THIS OCCURS...ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SSEWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE BAY SHOULD
DEVELOP EWD/NEWD THROUGH PARTS OF ERN MD...DE AND PERHAPS SRN NJ.
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER CNTRL/ERN VA INTO CNTRL MD IS
QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHEN
COUPLED WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING...AIR MASS WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. AS
SUCH...EXPECT CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM SERN PA THROUGH
CNTRL MD INTO NRN VA TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INTO CNTRL/ERN VA ALONG SEWD-MOVING
TROUGH/COLD FRONT.
CURRENT AREA VWPS INDICATE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E OF WARM
FRONT /REF. CURRENT DOX WIND PROFILE/ WITH NOTABLY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WITHIN WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY...30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS INVOF LOW AND WARM FRONT
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
..MEAD.. 06/18/2009
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37707829 39027762 40007706 40417636 40437556 40317493
39537483 38467573 37467621 36997679 37107796 37707829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA INTO NJ AND SWD THROUGH THE DELMARVA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181540Z - 181715Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL MD INTO
S-CNTRL/SERN PA WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD/SEWD THIS
AFTERNOON PER 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. AS THIS OCCURS...ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SSEWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE BAY SHOULD
DEVELOP EWD/NEWD THROUGH PARTS OF ERN MD...DE AND PERHAPS SRN NJ.
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER CNTRL/ERN VA INTO CNTRL MD IS
QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHEN
COUPLED WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING...AIR MASS WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. AS
SUCH...EXPECT CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM SERN PA THROUGH
CNTRL MD INTO NRN VA TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INTO CNTRL/ERN VA ALONG SEWD-MOVING
TROUGH/COLD FRONT.
CURRENT AREA VWPS INDICATE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E OF WARM
FRONT /REF. CURRENT DOX WIND PROFILE/ WITH NOTABLY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WITHIN WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY...30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS INVOF LOW AND WARM FRONT
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
..MEAD.. 06/18/2009
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37707829 39027762 40007706 40417636 40437556 40317493
39537483 38467573 37467621 36997679 37107796 37707829
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
Bunkertor wrote:Poll !
The 1630 will be
- in time
- 10 min delayed
> 10 min delayed
- issued prior to the scheduled time
I'm guessing it might be early, since a lot of decisions have already been made. The only big question mark is whether the Midwest goes up to a high risk.
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