Area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean

[Sanibel]

I think it is interesting to see how a weak wave mimics formation early in the season. Sort of like a fledgling flapping its wings on the nest edge but not having the feathers to fly yet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Decorum probably calls for closing this thread, but a slightly perverse curiosity wonders if this thread can keep going, possibly through Hurricane Season 2009, maybe to 2010, and the getting locked because of an Atlantic system moving into the Caribbean.


GFS looks quiet...

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, completely disorganized, low level winds appear to be from the East both North and South, even an outflow boundary moving out from under the convection, but there is a big blob of thunderstorms, which is all one needs to keep a blob watch thread going.

[NDG]

I am still waiting for convection to die off, lol.

Anyway, there appears to be a broad circulation in the GOH. I am sure it will move inland before it can really do anything.

[BigA]

I don't see the necessity of closing this thread. Its a slow day/week. If people want to comment on this, why not?

[tailgater]

These 3 maps alone should keep this thread going.
850mb Vorticity

Low Level convergence

Upper Divergence

And if you have noticed, when a weak wave or trough moving westward enters the GOH it usally tightens up a bit.
AND NO I'M NOT SAYING THIS WILL develop, but something to watch. IF YOU WANT TO.

[tailgater]

Pressure dropped a bit lately but still high, I think we will see a weak circulation tommorow before it enters the Yuctan. Maybe an invest in 24 hrs.?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[lrak]

Pressure dropped a bit lately but still high, I think we will see a weak circulation tommorow before it enters the Yuctan. Maybe an invest in 24 hrs.?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

Possible invest in the BOC 24hrs? Historically we don't get hurricanes this early but man S. Tex sure could use a tropical wave or depression. We're dryer than Dr. McCoy himself!

[gigabite]

It looks like that area of high pressure over the gulf is going to move off to the northeast gulf by Wednesday. That cloud mass could get spun up by the next passing front.

Agnes 1972

[NDG]

Absolutely not, steerings will stay the same through the week, head westward into MX, even it it makes into the BOC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Dr. Jeff at Wunderground has chosen this time for his Greek vacation. Second half of June since warm AMO started about 15 years ago averages under a 30% chance of a TC (29%, IIRC), none of which has become a hurricane. Based on unfavorable dual jet structure, and no identifiable features, Dr. Jeff is 20% on any Atlantic TC action the second half of the month.


I'll go watch the JB video and report back, but I'm leaning toward Wunderground and away from AccuWx.

....

Joe not backing off second half June Central/Western GOMEX, but nothing seems to indicate that now.

[wxman57]

Absolutely not, steerings will stay the same through the week, head westward into MX, even it it makes into the BOC.

Right, steering will remain east to wast through the region. That ridge over the northern Gulf isn't budging this week. There's actually a weak upper ridge over the western Caribbean today, but it's progged to move west over the Yucatan tomorrow then across the BoC Wed/Thu before moving into southern MX for good. Convection remains disorganized (there is no "blob") and pressures remain on the high side through the Caribbean. Without any feature to focus the convection, it should continue drifting westward across the Yucatan tomorrow/tomorrow night then across the southern BoC Wed/Thu before moving into Mexico. Development chances remain low, perhaps 5%, which is about typical for this time of year.

[lrak]

http://www.lajollasurf.org/images/caanim.gif

Is this wave model too aggressive for anyone? If no rain then I'll take the swell

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

Here's a 12Z analysis of the Caribbean with satellite. In the east, pressures are quite high across the NE Caribbean (1015-1017mb). Just scattered storms. Pressures are also relatively high across the western Caribbean in and near those scattered storms approaching the Yucatan. There's no rotation and no organization. These thunderstorms will all move inland by tonight. Could pop up in the southern BoC tomorrow/Thursday, but development chances are minimal at best.

[wxman57]

In making a screenshot of the western Caribbean/Yucatan area, I noticed some highly questionable obs (in red boxes). One of the reports, a pressure of 990.7 mb is from a ship. The other, a quite high pressure of 1021.0 mb is from another ship docked at Grand Cayman Island. Clearly, neither report is correct. Just goes to show you to be VERY WARY of ship reports. They are sometimes carrying equipment that is very poorly calibrated:

[Sanibel]

Black IR is always a clue in tropical energy. This wave burst deeply a week ago but then retrograded east with the trough and weakened. It kept a very weak 'blob' as an ill-defined center and has now separated from the trough into a weakly concentrated wave like feature. Still too weak to form, but offering a curling appearance to mimic formation. Should break down over Yucatan.