MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE KS...SW AND S CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420...
VALID 152350Z - 160115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420
CONTINUES.
IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED AT 01Z. A LOCAL
EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT WW IN TIME MAY BE A BETTER COURSE OF
ACTION.
ISOLATED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS FINALLY INITIATED TO
THE WEST OF WEST PLAINS...IN A WARM ADVECTION ZONE JUST NORTH OF A
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. MID-LEVEL WARMING ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE
WEST. AND THIS CAPPING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING OF THESE
STORMS TOWARD 02-03Z...AS WELL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS
NOW ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...BEFORE THEY REACH THE REGION
THIS EVENING. IT STILL SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT THE PRIMARY
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI PRIOR TO
06Z...BEFORE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE OZARK REGION LATER TONIGHT.
..KERR.. 06/15/2009
