Area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean

[cpdaman]

low level flow near jamaica appears this will travel NW in the next day or so.....then bend more west?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

TCHP map says http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 9162at.jpg

could there be something at 13.5 / 79.5 moving NNW'ward

[Sanibel]

Has the look of a "ghost" system trying to get together but doesn't quite have enough energy.

[hurricanefloyd5]

is something trying to form of not I don't think anything right now or soon will form but I could very well be wrong

[Nimbus]

The shear has finally dropped in the area and there is some convection. Usually wiser to wait till conditions at least warrant an invest but I'll watch this blob since conditions for development seem to be improving.

Looks like an upper level low slowly rolling west over the Yucatan is what is stirring up convection. Once a ULL leaves the area the convection often dissipates.

[wxman57]

There's a weak tropical wave moving westward past the upper trof. That's what has kicked up the convection today. The wave will be inland into southern Mexico in 24 hours, so the convection should die off tomorrow.

[NDG]

Big time difference in 24hrs across the central Caribbean, when 24hrs ago winshear was in the 20-40+ kt to now only in the 10-25kt range in that area of disturbed wx.

[Sanibel]

Can't help seeing the suggestion of a twist in there. The longer it stays over those June formation waters the better the chances. Won't surprise me if it disappears tomorrow either.

[NDG]

Hmmm, there is still is plenty of realstate for this trough to organize before moving into the Yucatan Peninsula with improving UL conditions, will be interesting to see how it looks tomorrow morning.

[tailgater]

Big time difference in 24hrs across the central Caribbean, when 24hrs ago winshear was in the 20-40+ kt to now only in the 10-25kt range in that area of disturbed wx.

I really hate to keep dragging this thread on but the upper trough that was over western cuba looks to have drifted SW and if that continues, conditions over the southcentral Caribbean would probably improve a good bit. I haven't check the models yet i'm just guessing. What do yall think?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Thank you very much.

[tailgater]

The GOES floater that had been on this area is now gone. HMMM
@ 15n 80w an area that has pulsed up and down, could be the area to keep an eye on. Nothing at the surface, pressures rising if anything.

[BigA]

I see a spin in the clouds south of western Jamaica, but its rather removed from the majority of the convection, and may be a transient feature.

[brunota2003]

just looked at the visible, IR, and water vapor...I see a few disorganized showers with a few storms...and some dry[er] air to the SW of them. I highly doubt much, if anything at all, beyond what it is will come from this.

[floridasun78]

let put it this way let see how area look like by noon on monday

[boca]

Like wxman57 said its a tropical wave interacting with that trough. Once that wave moves west into Central America the thunderstorms will dissipate over the W Caribbean by tomorrow.

[wxman57]

Convection is already diminishing as the wave axis moves into Nicaragua.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Haven't really perused the models, but I wonder if latest resurgence of this thread is the East Pac system past few days of Euro have either liked in the East Pac or sort of liked except too close to land.

Just checked, still there, although Euro sees a weak little something in the BoC which would be hampered by East Pac system. And is moving almost due West, into Mexico, even if something was there.


Canadian not as optimistic on this East Pac system, but only because it spins up a monster hurricane ahead of it that heads North towards the Baja, and would seem to be in position to maybe displace the big mid level ridge and sent a generous dose of mid and upper moisture across the Sierra Madre and maybe rain on Houston in a week.

The CMC doesn't seem supported. East Pac Hurricane Rosa Part Deux doesn't seem terribly likely.

But anyway, this seems an East Pac candidate.

[wxman57]

Here's a surface plot/satellite image of the region. Pressures are relatively high and rising. Nothing at the surface. Certainly no rotation at the surface. Just a weak passing wave. No development here over the coming week.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Caribbean kind of "muddy", but intense staring at loops suggests nothing interesting happening any time soon.





ETA:

What the trained professional wrote while I was typing.

[gatorcane]

I think its time we close this thread.

[cycloneye]

Well,if there are anymore replies,it will die down thru the pages.