Area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z is the second GFS run now I've seen where something sort of tries to develop, crosses Cuba, moves towards the Bahamas, then gets caught in a Nor'Easter looking frontal low and appears to add some strength to the Nor'Easter.

Euro brings a nice looking tropical wave into the Yucatan Day 7, and by Day 10 is trying to close off a weak low in the Eastern BoC.

500 mb pattern shows the sub-tropical ridge large and in charge, so if something did develop, it should move West or West-Northwest. Mexico probably, possibly effecting Deep South Texas.

But with wide divergence in the models, and recurring pattern of some models developing something for over a week, but always pushing back the start time, I unofficially and in my amateur opinion think nothing interesting happens for at least a week.

The GFS- a June Nor'Easter with a just a touch of tropical input seems potentially exciting, although while yesterday's GFS kind of targetted the Northeast US, today's seems more interesting for the Maritime provinces.

[tailgater]

Using this sat loop.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
I can see want looks like trough or elongated low trying to form in the southern Caribbean.
It's fighting the shear and we may have to wait a day or two to see which wins.

Shear on the decrease as of now, but you know how that can change.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... wg8sht.GIF

[Sanibel]

Something's trying to form down there but it's early June and the conditions are too weak with too much shear. I think it is making a run at it since that central round convection area is persisting.

[floridasun78]

model have it more over nw carribbean that area more toward central carribbean but i do see it been pull by shear to central carribbean

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian hits the general vicinity of Isla de la Juventud and Pinar del Rio with a tropical storm.

I don't believe it, myself

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS semi-consistent with 0Z as far as a very weak system coming into the Bahamas and being absorbed into a frontal storm, although the resulting frontal storm doesn't resemble the 0Z or yesterday's 12Z all that closely.

But weak energy carried out of the Caribbean towards the Bahamas is consistent. GFS tries to close off a surface low Sunday East of SFL, almost a depression maybe, before it gets captured.

[wxman57]

Chance of tropical development extremely slim. Just too much shear in the region.

[cycloneye]

That upper level low over Central Cuba is the cause of the shear now in the Caribbean.The question about this is if that ULL retrogades to the WSW,to then turn conditions better for any development to take place or it stays in the same place spinning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, I watched the JB video, and he would appear to be in line with the 0Z Euro.

A weak surface feature, with convection sheared away to the Northeast, drifts Northwestward toward Central America or the Yucatan, but doesn't develop until it reaches the Gulf.

The 0Z Euro appeared to show a closed low trying to form in the BofC on Day 10.

Of course, this would fit JB's June 20th +/- 10 days upward motion pulse first put out back in April or May.

[Sanibel]

The ULL is practically like a TUTT. Forget any development.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12Z Euro seems to suggest general low pressure in the BoC, but nothing organized, and anything that does try to develop in Euro-world would be battling something trying to organize on the other side of Mexico.


OK, the tropics are slow, but its June, and as noted on the #91E thread, since shear seems to be displacing all the storms West of the LLC, we might break the record of latest development in the East Pac (satellite era) if nothing does go in the next week.


OK, its the Canadian, but we are a week from a Louisiana hurricane, supposedly. And as long as one model a day spins up something, this thread will live, until something finally goes in the Caribbean. Maybe in 2010!

I wonder, if despite the anticipated ENSO state, if a cyclone does form in the MDR out East of the Lesser Antilles, and enters the Caribbean, whether than would lock this thread or not.


Look, the 18Z NAM, as it has been for over a week, is predicting a cyclone in 3 days!


It has to verify some day, month or year.

[wxman57]

OK, I watched the JB video, and he would appear to be in line with the 0Z Euro.... snip

I watched JB, too. He's not really going for development, he just says it's something to watch. Of course it is - any thunderstorms in the tropics should be watched. With a massive ridge building across the central and northern Gulf next week, any weather feature near the Yucatan would track west into southern Mexico. So development chances are very, very slim from this feature. By the time the shear drops off there won't be anything around to produce any more thunderstorms, most likely. The only reason the storms are there now is due to the sharp upper-level trof interacting with a weak tropical wave. Without the upper trof, the waves just progress westward with little or no convection.

So, no worries here across the northern Gulf with that ridge over us. That is, except for temps near 100 degrees.

[hurricanetrack]

I must say, that was nicely put.

[MGC]

Yep, that ridge over the N GOM will keep anything that develops away from us. Of course it is allowing a bunch of sunlight to warm the GOM.....MGC

[HouTXmetro]

GOM should be boiling after this Ridge gets done.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GOMEX gets warm every Summer, then cools off every Autumn, but there isn't always a tropical cyclone. If one counts Rita as a near miss, and I don't think we had hurricane force winds, we've had one hurricane and two snow miracles in the not quite a decade I have lived in my current house, snow is more frequent than hurricanes, and a lot less worrisome to prepare for.

Time for the NAM. Almost every run, for what, 8, 9 days now, it develops a storm 3 days out. I predict the 0Z run won't disappoint...


OK, wrong, almost closes something off, then the Yucatan seems to stop it.

[LaBreeze]

I can almost hear the warm bubbles popping in the GOM houTXmetro.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This is like 'Seinfeld Show' of threads, pages and pages about nothing.

I vote if a reliable (not the NAM, DGEX or Canadian) model doesn't show development in the next day of model runs, we put this thread out of its misery. Of course, my vote counts for little to nothing.



Although the idea of the thread running until 2010 when an actual hurricane enters the Caribbean from the Atlantic, extending to 50 pages, does have its appeal.

[JonathanBelles]

This thread could have been dead 24-48 hours ago. It's not going to happen.

[boca]

This thread could have been dead 24-48 hours ago. It's not going to happen.

I second that motion. All in favor of this thread dropping down to the bottom say I. IIIIIIII.Look the I's have it.