Area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS has a weak low moving from Western Caribbean into the Yucatan,then into the GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

12z EURO has a weak low moving from SW Caribbean into Yucatan.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[AdamFirst]

Man, this thing is still alive in some form?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Man, this thing is still alive in some form?

I think it should have just missed Miami yesterday, per a GFS run last week, but if we have a "disturbed Caribbean" thread, given enough time, maybe over a year, eventually we will get an Invest and the thread will be locked.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12z NOGAPS has a weak low moving from Western Caribbean into the Yucatan,then into the GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

12z EURO has a weak low moving from SW Caribbean into Yucatan.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

The PSU display of the Euro only goes out to 168 hours. The ECMWF site has pretty low graphic resolution (funny, in a way, NHC site touts Euro as having finest grid scale resolution of any global), but I don't see a closed low or 850 mb winds over 30 knots, so I am not sure ever closes off a low.

[Stormcenter]

Yawn.... it's still only June folks. Wake me up when it's late August.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yawn.... it's still only June folks. Wake me up when it's late August.

Claudette in 2003 hit in July.
Not to mention Allison and Audrey and Agnes.


But it looks like the more preferred models, GFS and Euro, are very subdued, the less preferred NOGAPS, a weak low, and the CMC, aka, the Crazy Uncle, is very enthusiastic.


Based simply on model worship as an unofficial and amateur poster, and adding significant figures in an attempt to make it look like I actually have a clue, I go 36.1% we get an Invest, 22.3% we get a tropical cyclone, and 8.7% chance of a hurricane from the blob in the SW Caribbean in the next 7 days.

[Stormcenter]

Yes we can have a TS or even a hurricane (rare but possible) in June but I guess I'm referring to the really bad ones that "normally" occur in August and Sept. Anyway thanks for the info and I'm sure others on this board also appreciate it.

Yawn.... it's still only June folks. Wake me up when it's late August.

Claudette in 2003 hit in July.
Not to mention Allison and Audrey and Agnes.


But it looks like the more preferred models, GFS and Euro, are very subdued, the less preferred NOGAPS, a weak low, and the CMC, aka, the Crazy Uncle, is very enthusiastic.


Based simply on model worship as an unofficial and amateur poster, and adding significant figures in an attempt to make it look like I actually have a clue, I go 36.1% we get an Invest, 22.3% we get a tropical cyclone, and 8.7% chance of a hurricane from the blob in the SW Caribbean in the next 7 days.

[srainhoutx]

CRP has a good disco this afternoon...snipet...

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE AREA PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNLESS RIDGE MOVES A BIT FASTER AND/OR FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST. WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD THEN SOME
COOLING AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES A BIT AWAY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
RAIN CHANCES INITIALLY LOW TO NIL THEN UPPER HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH
TO BRING A MORE EASTERLY FLOW...MOISTURE MAY BE BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. ON TOP OF THAT...SOME MODELS
(MOST NOTABLY CANADIAN AND NOGAPS) DEVELOPING A TROUGH/SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE YUCATAN...WITH NOGAPS TAKING IT INTO WESTERN GULF AND INTO
SOUTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY (CANADIAN IN WESTERN GULF TUESDAY). WHILE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE AT BEST A MUCH WEAKER FEATURE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AS IF UPPER RIDGE DOES MOVE NORTH AND EAST ANY
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH COULD FORM AND/OR DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
IMPACT AREA. GFS IS INCREASING MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY AND MOISTURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS DAY 7 WILL PREFER TO HOLD
OFF ON PUTTING 20 POPS IN FORECAST (COULD SEE SOMETHING ISOLATED
THOUGH). WINDS WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS INITIALLY THEN A GRADUAL
DECREASE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES NORTH AND EAST AND
MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CRPAFDCRP

[cycloneye]

HPC Discussion

THE PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PUZZLE THE MODELS. CYCLOGENESIS AS THE GFS
FORECASTED HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZED. IN EACH CYCLE THE GFS
DELAYS ONSET BY 12-18 HRS...AND THE LATEST RUN IS NOT THE
EXCEPTION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORESEE A MUCH SLOWER
EVOLUTION...AND THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK AS THE BEST OPTION. THE
EARLIEST WE MIGHT SEE A CYCLONE FORMING IS GOING TO BE AT 42-54
HRS...WITH A LOW FORMING NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...TO THEN PULL
NORTH TOWARDS JAMAICA/THE CAYMAN ISLES BY 66-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS SLOW TO DEVELOP...CONDITIONS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS JAMAICA-PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA. IN THIS AREA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-250MM. WE MIGHT SEE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY ON DAY 02...WITH ANOTHER SURGE ON DAY 03 AS THE SURFACE
CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. BUT OVERALL...THIS REMAINS A
HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[cycloneye]

Yes its the NAM,but it also shows the Western Caribbean low.

18z NAM.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ed Mahmoud]

We need the rain, I hope the NOGAPS solution is correct, but I'm not particularly optimistic.

My sprinkler is broken as well, so I am watering by hand. Sort of balanced, wet Summer periods can have me mowing every 4 or 5 days, and I didn't mow last weekend, and the grass is only now getting a little shaggy.

6Z DGEX has an impressive tropical system that reaches the middle of the Gulf and just poofs.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFS gone wild.

Not much of a surface reflection by 7 pm tomorrow CDT, but an impressive looking 850 mb vort max is right over Jamaica, with plenty of convection.

By Saturday evening, almost has an isobar closed off as it crawls to the West-Northwest.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC TAFB Surface Analysis has a Low Pressure in SW Caribbean



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

[floridasun78]

i see shear is going higher not lower so nam,gfs are not picking up shear well

[srainhoutx]

i see shear is going higher not lower so nam,gfs are not picking up shear well

Agreed. If guidance is correct, a front will enter the GOM or come very close. Hmmm

[cpdaman]

IF gfs keep this crap up it won't form the 1014 mb low till july

tropics sure does teach patience some times

[Cainer]

Latest Quikscat:

Clearly, there is something spinning around down there. Whether it will develop into anything is another question.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bed time, and staying up for the GFS could make me tired and cranky at the office...


NAM sort of kind of takes weak low pressure generally NW towards the Yucatan, but doesn't blow the socks off.

[boca]

The title of the thread needs to be changed to central Caribbean. Its now clear in the western Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

Another nocturnal burst. Hmm. Seems like this is the same general latitude of the original black IR burst of several days ago but pushed further east with the trough feature I pointed out. Could be something here. See if it persists.