What is JB's rant about- Is a Cat 3 now just 110 mph?

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB has an unofficial "land cane" watch developing from the Plains/Miss Valley severe.


If 2004 is the analog, shouldn't Florida, not Texas, be the caution zone? Not that anyone can really be more than in the general ballpark correct, IMHO.

[srainhoutx]

Various anomolies have caught my eye. SST's lower and snow/cold in the Plains and Canada. TX would fare better I believe.

[vbhoutex]

Perhaps the answer that we seek, we overlook. There is no need for "categories" for the general public, too much weight is placed on them...not to mention the fact that every system you can create to show the strength of a system ALWAYS overshadows something critical to the lives of someone, somewhere.

Wind...overlooks surge
Surge...overlooks wind
Pressure, well, pressure can vary with both wind and surge.
Overall potential destructiveness...overshadows each element.

Has anyone even given a thought as to rainfall? I've seen surge and wind, rainfall and inland flooding can be just as devastating (don't believe me? Ask those in the islands).

Keep the categories inhouse, for "reference" purposes...but as far as the general public goes? Get RID of them. Enough "oh it is just a Category 2" or "oh, it weakened to a 4!"



Tornadoes do not get rated until after the storm, why not do the same for hurricanes if you wish to still rate them? Rate it by the damage it produced or whatever, just not while it is ongoing.

Just my $0.02

Interesting, to say the least and not without merit, imo. However, how do you suggest the warnings, evacuation orders, etc. be done?

[Ixolib]

Not one mention of Category anywhere...........
But still gets the point across, does it not?

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

Perhaps the "the point" was well intended, but even this kind of forecast (or hype, actually) can cause future preparation to suffer. As shown below, much of this "weather message" proved false in the end. And if a similar message is brodcast in the future, many will ignore it since it proved false the first time around...

Excluding the New Orleans situation - which was caused by a city below sea level - here's my observation:

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS - True, some was uninhabitable for weeks, but certainly not most.
ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL - a definite miscalculation since no where near all gabled roofs failed.
AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE - Evidence proves that one half of the "well constructed" homes impacted by Katrina did not have roof and wall failure.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL - Certainly, some industrial building became non functional, but the negative impact was far from the majority.
ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED - not even close.
A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE - No reports of any highrise buildings collapsing.
ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT - Well, no they didn't ALL blow out.
PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK - Perhaps some exposed pets and livestock died, but no way did ALL of them face certain death.

[brunota2003]

snip...

Interesting, to say the least and not without merit, imo. However, how do you suggest the warnings, evacuation orders, etc. be done?

The same way they are now, the orders are not based off of the SSHS (otherwise, surge would be a lot more deadly, what would they of evacuated along the gulf coast if they had gone by the SSHS for a "Category 3", or even a 4?)

Warnings are done the same, hurricane warnings for hurricane force winds and tropical storm force for tropical storms...getting rid of the categories would get rid of focusing on the category, and focus more on the individual aspects of the hurricane (making readers actually "read" the bulletins, versus just look at the first couple lines to see what category it is).

Bulletins can look similar to the one that I posted right above my other post (the dire warning from NWS New Orleans prior to Katrina), covering what the winds can do and what the expected surge will do in THAT locale, versus trying to place it on a scale. Even now, surge varies from storm to storm, even if they are the same intensity...that already throws out the "Cat 1 Surge area" and so forth, because size, movement towards the coast, and speed all throw out different surges.

Example being Hurricane Alex and Hurricane Ophelia surge charts for Eastern NC

Hurricane Alex:


Hurricane Ophelia:


Alex was smaller and faster moving than Ophelia, but both were Category 1 hurricanes, taking a similar track (skirting past the Outerbanks). Look at the surge difference, some areas with Ophelia had 6 to 8 feet of surge, while Alex produced 2 to 4 in those areas.

So in this case, residents could've rode through Alex and been like "It was a category 1, and Ophelia is a Category 1, we're fine from the surge, there is no way." only to be surprised when it floods their house too...whereas without categories, perhaps they would've actually taken the time to read the statements, saying it was to produce "x" surge at that location.

[brunota2003]

Not one mention of Category anywhere...........
But still gets the point across, does it not?

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

...snip...

Perhaps the "the point" was well intended, but even this kind of forecast (or hype, actually) can cause future preparation to suffer. As shown below, much of this "weather message" proved false in the end. And if a similar message is brodcast in the future, many will ignore it since it proved false the first time around...

Excluding the New Orleans situation - which was caused by a city below sea level - here's my observation:

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS - True, some was uninhabitable for weeks, but certainly not most.
ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL - a definite miscalculation since no where near all gabled roofs failed.
AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE - Evidence proves that one half of the "well constructed" homes impacted by Katrina did not have roof and wall failure.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL - Certainly, some industrial building became non functional, but the negative impact was far from the majority.
ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED - not even close.
A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE - No reports of any highrise buildings collapsing.
ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT - Well, no they didn't ALL blow out.
PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK - Perhaps some exposed pets and livestock died, but no way did ALL of them face certain death.

The point of the bulletin was not to show it may have been overhyped, but that there can be bulletins put out without mention at all of what "Category" a storm is, but still get all of the critical information across that is needed by the general public, and often overlooked because they are stuck on the Category of the storm.

[brunota2003]

One main problem though, is the use of the Categories in the media...that is one reason I want them gone, other than maybe post analysis (can be done at the end of the season). The media needs to follow what the NHC is saying

(Sorry Florida)

Instead of
"CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE THREATENS FLORIDA
Storm to rival Category 4 Hurricane Charley in 2004"

It needs to say somthing like
"HURRICANE THREATENS FLORIDA, WARNINGS POSTED
Hurricane could produce surge of 15 to 18 feet and sustained winds of 145 mph"

Then if someone glances at the headlines (how many here are guilty of that? I am) all of the critical information (except rainfall and tornado threat) is right there for you. Then in the next few lines it can start off with the rest of the information.


THE FOLLOWING IS *NOT* REAL...just a couple articles I wrote up real quick.

Article without the scale:

HURRICANE THREATENS FLORIDA, EVACUATIONS ORDERED
Hurricane could produce surge of 15 to 18 feet and sustained winds of 145 mph

Hurricane June is expected to hit Florida today, with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and a storm surge of 15 to 18 feet. Residents living "insert place" are under a mandatory evacuation, with areas surrounding there under a voluntary evacuation. "We urge residents to please heed the evacuation orders" says "name", an official working with the local police department. "There are shelters set up at the local high schools for residents who do not have anywhere to go."
For a list of these and other shelters in the area, please visit: "website"

Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches are possible along and east of the Hurricane's track. This rainfall will cause flooding issues, especially due to the recent rainfall from Tropical Depression 8. Please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service offices, over tv, radio, NOAA Weather Radio or visit this website: "website"

Whereas alot of today's articles say stuff like:

CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE PREPARES TO SLAM FLORIDA
Officials fear worst for rain soaked region

Category 4 Hurricane June is expected to make landfall today along the Florida coastline. Latest observations indicate Hurricane June has weakened quite a bit overnight, her windspeed down from 160 mph to 145 mph. This makes the Hurricane now a dangerous Category 4 on the SSHS. It was an extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane yesterday before a phenomenon known as an eyewall replacement cycle weakened it down to a Category 4 Hurricane overnight. However, she still remains dangerous.

The latest prediction is for a 15 to 18 foot storm surge over portions of the area she makes landfall, along with 6 to 8 inches of rain. The rainfall may cause some flooding due to heavy rain in the recent past. Currently, evacuations are in place for "such and such areas", with officials pleading to residents to evacuate when told to do so.

For more on this system, please visit: "website"

The problem with the second article is that there is no real information in the headline...yeah, it might catch peoples' attention, but wouldn't the one in the first article, too? I know if I saw an article like that, I'd pick it up and read it (or if it is online, open it up), since it is clearly showing it has critical information I need in it readily available...whereas the other one seems to be more of a "hype" situation, rather than having the information I need.

The second article also focuses on the whole category thing, devoting the entire opening paragraph to the current windspeed and why it weakened. When a storm is bearing down on you, do you really care WHY it weakened? I dont...all I want is the most up-to-date information I can find on it. I can look up why it weakened later on, by reading the NHC Discussions on the system. Would the average person, who is not a weather "nut", even understand what they meant by an ERC, without it being explained? Possibly not.

/me jumps off soap box

[Derek Ortt]

Not one mention of Category anywhere...........
But still gets the point across, does it not?

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

Perhaps the "the point" was well intended, but even this kind of forecast (or hype, actually) can cause future preparation to suffer. As shown below, much of this "weather message" proved false in the end. And if a similar message is brodcast in the future, many will ignore it since it proved false the first time around...

Excluding the New Orleans situation - which was caused by a city below sea level - here's my observation:

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS - True, some was uninhabitable for weeks, but certainly not most.
ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL - a definite miscalculation since no where near all gabled roofs failed.
AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE - Evidence proves that one half of the "well constructed" homes impacted by Katrina did not have roof and wall failure.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL - Certainly, some industrial building became non functional, but the negative impact was far from the majority.
ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED - not even close.
A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE - No reports of any highrise buildings collapsing.
ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT - Well, no they didn't ALL blow out.
PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK - Perhaps some exposed pets and livestock died, but no way did ALL of them face certain death.

I believe that was written for 175 mph winds, not the low end cat 3 winds that Katrina struck with. That was a blown intensity forecast that ranks right up there with Hurricane Lili's

[DESTRUCTION5]

Was about to say that Ortt...This came out when she was peaking...

[Derek Ortt]

snip...

Interesting, to say the least and not without merit, imo. However, how do you suggest the warnings, evacuation orders, etc. be done?

The same way they are now, the orders are not based off of the SSHS (otherwise, surge would be a lot more deadly, what would they of evacuated along the gulf coast if they had gone by the SSHS for a "Category 3", or even a 4?)

Warnings are done the same, hurricane warnings for hurricane force winds and tropical storm force for tropical storms...getting rid of the categories would get rid of focusing on the category, and focus more on the individual aspects of the hurricane (making readers actually "read" the bulletins, versus just look at the first couple lines to see what category it is).

Bulletins can look similar to the one that I posted right above my other post (the dire warning from NWS New Orleans prior to Katrina), covering what the winds can do and what the expected surge will do in THAT locale, versus trying to place it on a scale. Even now, surge varies from storm to storm, even if they are the same intensity...that already throws out the "Cat 1 Surge area" and so forth, because size, movement towards the coast, and speed all throw out different surges.

Example being Hurricane Alex and Hurricane Ophelia surge charts for Eastern NC

Hurricane Alex:


Hurricane Ophelia:


Alex was smaller and faster moving than Ophelia, but both were Category 1 hurricanes, taking a similar track (skirting past the Outerbanks). Look at the surge difference, some areas with Ophelia had 6 to 8 feet of surge, while Alex produced 2 to 4 in those areas.

So in this case, residents could've rode through Alex and been like "It was a category 1, and Ophelia is a Category 1, we're fine from the surge, there is no way." only to be surprised when it floods their house too...whereas without categories, perhaps they would've actually taken the time to read the statements, saying it was to produce "x" surge at that location.

Alex was a 2 when it struck the OBX

[BigA]

Another problem with categories is that the NHC doesn't exist merely as a scientific entity. Say that there is a hurricane bearing down on some coastline, and the NHC is reasonably sure that it has weakened from a 115 mph category 3 storm to a 105 mph category 2 storm. The scientifically correct thing would be to declare it weaker in the next advisory, but keeping it stronger might cause people to take it more seriously and therefore potentially save lives.

I think that this may be the reason that we often see hurricanes best track landfall intensities adjusted downward when the NHC writes the end of season storm reports. The NHC understands, rightly I believe, that it must be very cautious when it declares that a hurricane soon to make landfall has weakened.

[MWatkins]

There are many, many disconnects between what is happening in the scientific community and what regular people perceive. For example, ask any of your non-hurricane friends what a hurricane with 100 mph winds means.

They will say something like, "well, a hurricane that has 100 mph winds", to which you reply, "yes, but measured over what amount of time"?

They will be perplexed by that answer and say something like.."well, all the time?"

Have fun explaining the one minute average concept to them...

But the one minute average idea is totally arbitrary. Why not two minutes? Why not 10 like in the UK? It takes only a 3 second wind to do damage to a structure on average. I fully contend that this, and not the 1 min average, should be the basis for classifying wind strength because that is what matters to people: what are the winds going to be like that could damage property and put lives at risk.

Second, the Saffir/Simpson scale was never intended to be a total destruction index. It was built for wind damage estimates first and foremost. The older surge ranges never were applicable for a local event.

It's been the media and people in general wanting a specific number to convey a threat (oooh it's a category 5!) that has furthered the rift between science and the general population.

Yes, tc's are measured in knots because that makes tracking them over a lat/long grid scalable. But Americans think in terms of miles per hour...so the conversion has to be made.

So in the conversion, rounding happens and that becomes the classification metric. It's kind of like rounding percents of percents up or down. You take a very uncertain measurement (a flight wind at 850 mb for example) and without understanding the dynamics of a specific storm in terms of the exact dynamics happening at that exact time, we convert to an alleged surface wind. And THAT becomes the winds for a storm when the advisory is released 3 hours from then.

The public needs a simple way to talk about wind and surge as one event and estimate the relative threat from both (preferably at the same time). There is no way to do that simply that I know of. So either we have to do way more education for people to understand the unique problems like Ike (Cat 2 wind at best, giant surge), or do the best we can with what we have.

The challenge, I think, is creating a simple scale that covers both threats at a "sustained wind" value that makes sense.

I don't think we are there yet.

MW

[Category 5]

There are many, many disconnects between what is happening in the scientific community and what regular people perceive. For example, ask any of your non-hurricane friends what a hurricane with 100 mph winds means.

They will say something like, "well, a hurricane that has 100 mph winds", to which you reply, "yes, but measured over what amount of time"?

They will be perplexed by that answer and say something like.."well, all the time?"

Have fun explaining the one minute average concept to them...

But the one minute average idea is totally arbitrary. Why not two minutes? Why not 10 like in the UK? It takes only a 3 second wind to do damage to a structure on average. I fully contend that this, and not the 1 min average, should be the basis for classifying wind strength because that is what matters to people: what are the winds going to be like that could damage property and put lives at risk.

Second, the Saffir/Simpson scale was never intended to be a total destruction index. It was built for wind damage estimates first and foremost. The older surge ranges never were applicable for a local event.

It's been the media and people in general wanting a specific number to convey a threat (oooh it's a category 5!) that has furthered the rift between science and the general population.

Yes, tc's are measured in knots because that makes tracking them over a lat/long grid scalable. But Americans think in terms of miles per hour...so the conversion has to be made.

So in the conversion, rounding happens and that becomes the classification metric. It's kind of like rounding percents of percents up or down. You take a very uncertain measurement (a flight wind at 850 mb for example) and without understanding the dynamics of a specific storm in terms of the exact dynamics happening at that exact time, we convert to an alleged surface wind. And THAT becomes the winds for a storm when the advisory is released 3 hours from then.

The public needs a simple way to talk about wind and surge as one event and estimate the relative threat from both (preferably at the same time). There is no way to do that simply that I know of. So either we have to do way more education for people to understand the unique problems like Ike (Cat 2 wind at best, giant surge), or do the best we can with what we have.

The challenge, I think, is creating a simple scale that covers both threats at a "sustained wind" value that makes sense.

I don't think we are there yet.

MW

I think you hit the nail on the head there.

[jinftl]

A lot of the confusions and misperceptions the public has could be easily overcome by doing one simple thing...listen to your local emergency management officials. If there is a cat 2 storm approaching and a mandatory evacuation is issued for where you live, you evacuate. Don't try and play armchair forecaster and making predictions based on prior storm experience, folklore, errors, rumors, etc. When told to evacuate, those orders are coming from people who figure this stuff out for a living....what the topography is, elevation maps, etc.

The same storm will produce different surges in different areas. A community's experience with a new storm won't be identical to a past one. What if your frame of reference for what a storm like in you area is from being 50 miles to the west of the eye wall, and the flow was offshore so there wasn't surge flooding. What if this time, you are 20 miles to the east of the eye wall? That could be a 20' difference under which people's homes and lives could be under. Many people who have 'been through' storms may have only had fringe effects.

When it comes to surge, the only thing to do is listen to what emergency management tells you. Prepare for the wind effects, leave for surge.

Think of the surge as separate from the wind event....the wind is like an earthquake, it can effect a large area, including those inland. But the surge is like an earthquake's resulting tsunami... will effect those in the coast in harm's way.

Again, following this one rule would save most lives lost in storms - if told to leave, leave. In the myriad of gut-wretching home videos on youtube from people documenting how they ended up on their rooftops in katrina, not one has ever said, 'i wish i had known to leave.' They only say, 'i have made a lot of mistakes in my life, but this was the biggest one. I should have left.'

[tolakram]

A lot of the confusions and misperceptions the public has could be easily overcome by doing one simple thing...listen to your local emergency management officials.

Two mistakes. One, you're asking people to change their behavior and two, you're asking people to put trust in others who may or may not be qualified. Apparently many thought the mayor of Galveston was a qualified emergency management official they should listen too.

Again I think it's important to stick to the idea that we need to convey information to people who really aren't interested in it but will react if it's presented in a simple enough fashion. We stumbled upon this system when categories were introduced and now I think it should be a simple enough task to quietly change how those number are derived so people react based on the real danger as perceived by hurricane forecasters.

[vbhoutex]

A lot of the confusions and misperceptions the public has could be easily overcome by doing one simple thing...listen to your local emergency management officials.

Two mistakes. One, you're asking people to change their behavior and two, you're asking people to put trust in others who may or may not be qualified. Apparently many thought the mayor of Galveston was a qualified emergency management official they should listen too.

Again I think it's important to stick to the idea that we need to convey information to people who really aren't interested in it but will react if it's presented in a simple enough fashion. We stumbled upon this system when categories were introduced and now I think it should be a simple enough task to quietly change how those number are derived so people react based on the real danger as perceived by hurricane forecasters.

I'm not sure how simple it will be to arrive at that "simple" number, but you are spot on when you say it has to be simple for the general public. 99% of the populus is not like our members here, even our newest members. They only want to know if the hurricane is going to hit them and what it is going to do to them, not all the information most of us understand and have access to. And ABOVE ALL, as stated above, PEOPLE NEED TO REALIZE THAT EACH TC IS DIFFERENT AND THEY CAN NOT BASE THEIR LIFE SAVING DECISIONS ON PAST EXPERIENCES!! I could go on and on here, but I am preachin gto the choir.

[MGC]

A lot of people didn't heed the mandatory evacuation orders issued here on the Mississippi Coast. They paid with their lives. I mean what can you do when a monster Cat-5 is just off the coast, dooms day forecast are issued and people living right on the coast ignore the warning? Can't do much except recover the bodies. I bet next big hurricane that threatens the coast there will be those that refuse to evacuate. Just like last time I'll have to smell their decomposing bodies for some time....sad.....MGC

[Cyclone1]

Is the public really this... oblivious?

After 2004, 2005, and 2008, people may have learned to fear hurricanes, no matter what Category. I'm not sure we're giving the general public enough credit here.

There will always be people who don't evacuate, no matter how accurate the category is in relation to the damage projection. Always. And there's really not much we can do about that except for continue to urge people to evacuate. I think the current categorization system is fine, personally.

[Category 5]

PEOPLE NEED TO REALIZE THAT EACH TC IS DIFFERENT AND THEY CAN NOT BASE THEIR LIFE SAVING DECISIONS ON PAST EXPERIENCES!!

Bingo, don't believe him? ask Mississippians who said "Camille didn't flood us, and Camille was stronger than Katrina", that is if they survived. Such misjudgments are often fatal.

[MiamiensisWx]

The reason as to why every individual tropical cyclone is different is the following: the fact is that the perception of "risk" is influenced by numerous regional factors, all of which vary significantly. Some areas are more prone to flooding, depending on adjacent topography, geology, and logical contributors to the mesoscale/synoptic weather environment. The variations in elevation can significantly affect local precipitation totals because of differing temperatures, orographic lifting, etc. Some areas of the country may be more vulnerable in an economic sense. Major port areas with high levels of infrastructure in surge prone vicinities heighten the risk of significant damage. Of course, other types of long term impacts depend on the degree to which areas (with varying demographics, real estate values, occupations, natural resources, etc.) rely on these ports and available means. You cannot even compare two separate cyclones with similar intensities or sizes. One TC's synoptic/thermodynamic environment and track may produce greater rainfall than the other TC.

It's an extremely difficult concept, but I believe that it should be emphasized. Another factor is the fact that climatology is continually shaped. One can examine thousands of years of historical climatological data such as TC distribution, intraseasonal variability, "typical" monthly tracks (depending on a mean derived from numerous factors influencing the global circulation), and other things. However, you can never detect the situation in which a "new" TC for a particular area will occur. The "new" TC may feature an unprecedented track, unique synoptic pattern, specific precipitation patterns, anomalously significant impacts (via duration of strong winds, coastal or inland flooding, etc.), or other attributes. In fact, the "new" TC's pattern may be very similar to previous historical cases in similar or different areas, but some subtle (different) factors may contribute to effects that were not exhibited by the previous cases in a particular area (or any location). These situations illustrate the fact that climatology can be easily misinterpreted or misapplied. If it is applied properly, climatology (for precipitation/temperatures, historical cases for specific areas, intraseasonal patterns, etc.) can be very applicable and useful. However, climatology is only pertinent to a point: it does not apply to subtle mesoscale factors, slight differences in low/mid/upper level patterns, and other factors that may affect one of several relatively similar cases. A similar TC in a relatively similar pattern may not produce the same results as a previous similar case. Differences in the mid level vorticity, surrounding thermodynamic environment, and variations in the upstream energy may influence the differences. Therefore, one TC or baroclinic/non-tropical coastal storm may feature a longer duration of higher coastal waves, slower/faster movement, more pronounced localized precipitation, and greater localized damage potential than a similar historical case. Additionally, the time of year (relative to population shifts) and recent alterations to beaches (including restoration efforts, debris removal, greater or lower accretion/erosion rates, breakwater construction/removal, previous storm effects, etc.) may enhance or reduce the risk of greater destruction when the system arrives.

Finally, it's easy to become complacent because of the rarity of extreme events. Do not dodge the issue: Category 4 and 5 hurricane strikes are extremely scarce. Any hurricane landfall (Cat 1-5) is unusual during any particular season. You do not observe United States hurricane strikes during every Atlantic season, including above average seasons during +AMO regimes. ACE values do not alter the truth. I think that general emergency preparedness should take these realities into account. In other words, the rarity of hurricanes should not affect (diminish or reduce) the importance of readiness. If a segment of the populace is unprepared when one hurricane arrives, that single incident (alone) would necessitate the value of readiness. In more than one hundred years of records, south Florida had ONE Category 5 hurricane in ONE August during ONE year. That tropical cyclone was Andrew. The probability of the recurrence of an event (based on "experience" or any excuse) should not dictate preparedness for ALL cases of TCs and ALL cases of emergencies. Finally, the preparedness would be very applicable for other man-made disasters, many of which are much more frequent and insidious than hurricanes.