What is JB's rant about- Is a Cat 3 now just 110 mph?

[Lurker]

I think you guys are getting a little too worked up about this "major" vs non major. They always say plan for 1 CAT higher anyway. I live in a very high risk area and will leave if ordered to regardless of the Category.

that is just a case of Bastardi being Bastardi. A meteorologist who is acting like a rabble rouser and not a serious scientist

Any objective look at the data clearly shows that Ike was not a category 3 hurricane at landfall. If anything, NHC's 95KT estimate is on the HIGH side (IMO, it was an 85KT cat 2 at landfall)

Bastardi is part of the problem that causes people to die in hurricanes. People do not take cat 2 hurricanes seriously and part of the reaosn why comments like Bastardi's that state Ike was a major hurricane (boy do I ever hate the term major hurricane and I no longer use it!). Instead, Ike should be paraded as an example of just how destructive a category 2 hurricane can be

100% agree, Bastardi lives on more of hype and grabbing attention than on science.This is just him trying to get attention.

IMHO, they should eliminate the term "Major hurricane" it is EXTREMELY misleading, considering major storms such as Ike, Gustav, Floyd, Frances, and Isabel, which caused severe damage when they struck the united states, didnt qualify as major, its an extremely flawed term and needs to be done away with.

[Category 5]

I think you guys are getting a little too worked up about this "major" vs non major. They always say plan for 1 CAT higher anyway. I live in a very high risk area and will leave if ordered to regardless of the Category.

that is just a case of Bastardi being Bastardi. A meteorologist who is acting like a rabble rouser and not a serious scientist

Any objective look at the data clearly shows that Ike was not a category 3 hurricane at landfall. If anything, NHC's 95KT estimate is on the HIGH side (IMO, it was an 85KT cat 2 at landfall)

Bastardi is part of the problem that causes people to die in hurricanes. People do not take cat 2 hurricanes seriously and part of the reaosn why comments like Bastardi's that state Ike was a major hurricane (boy do I ever hate the term major hurricane and I no longer use it!). Instead, Ike should be paraded as an example of just how destructive a category 2 hurricane can be

100% agree, Bastardi lives on more of hype and grabbing attention than on science.This is just him trying to get attention.

IMHO, they should eliminate the term "Major hurricane" it is EXTREMELY misleading, considering major storms such as Ike, Gustav, Floyd, Frances, and Isabel, which caused severe damage when they struck the united states, didnt qualify as major, its an extremely flawed term and needs to be done away with.

I see where your coming from but seeing as you're a member of this board, you're probably more eduacated then most of the general public, who will tend to have the "Oh its not a major hurricane therefore its not a big deal" attitude.

[Cyclone1]

I see both sides of the argument, but I do think "Major Hurricane" is a good term to help classify the activity of any given season from a scientific standpoint. Like, for instance, a Major Hurricane in the month of May would be climatologically more significant than non-major hurricane in May, but I do agree that the term Major Hurricane is flawed.

I don't know what to do with the phrase.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, I can say, best of my recollection as a child, while Hurricane Belle, a minimal Cat 1 in Massapequa, NY uprooted a lot of weeping willow trees, and killed electricity for a couple of days, it wasn't as intense as Cat 2 Hurricane Ike. I don't recall anyone with significant roof damage, except the Smith's, whose weeping willow tree punched a hole in their roof when it fell. In forested areas, the next year, some of those weeping willow trees were still alive and green, although uprooted.


So assigning hurricanes categories seems like a good idea.

[southerngale]

JB is just arguing (correctly) that the SSHS is sometimes not an accurate assessment of what a "major hurricane" is. Ike was clearly major in terms of its impact, though it was only a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. JB thinks pressure should be a consideration, since a large Cat 2 hurricane like Ike with a relatively low central pressure would result in a larger hurricane force wind field which would produce more widespread damage and a larger surge.

He seems to be misunderstood quite often around here. I'm not saying he's never due any criticism, but he definitely gets way too much of it, way too often.

I completely agree with what you (him?) are saying here. Although Ike wasn't officially a "major hurricane," it was clearly a major hurricane. And even in an area that has been hit hard by hurricanes the past several years, while many are more educated than before, I am amazed at how completely clueless a lot of people are. The information is out there... everyone who lives in a risk area should take the time to educate themselves. Unfortunately, it's just not going to happen.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I pay to read JB, I think he is worthwhile.

Maybe just poor wording, but he implied that NHC had changed the definition of a Cat 3 hurricane to 110 mph just for Ike, and looking at the new improved Saffir-Simpson scale, they haven't.


I think Derek Ortt has something there with the Integrated Kinetic Energy concept. (No, I doubt think he actually invented it, but he is a supporter).

[Cyclone1]

Integrated Kinetic Energy doesn't seem very tangible though. Wind is physically recognizable by everyone, and I think should remain the only basis for categorization. This goes with Pressure, too. Charley, if categorized by pressure, would have seemed much weaker than it really was. You have to remember that not every hurricane is huge in size like Ike was.

[tolakram]

Numerical scales that try and stick to a single statistic are dangerous, regardless of scientific validity.

I really do think forecasters should rate each potential danger indicator on an identical scale and use the highest number to rank the Hurricane. I can't imagine why they don't do this now other than consistency with older records, which is not a very good reason.

cat2 pressure
cat1 windspeed
cat4 surge

cat4 hurricane

People will only look at the final number to decide if they stay or go. You can't fight that.

[southerngale]

Integrated Kinetic Energy doesn't seem very tangible though. Wind is physically recognizable by everyone, and I think should remain the only basis for categorization. This goes with Pressure, too. Charley, if categorized by pressure, would have seemed much weaker than it really was. You have to remember that not every hurricane is huge in size like Ike was.

I believe he was saying pressure should be a consideration, not the only factor, so Charley wouldn't have seemed much weaker than it really was. The winds would have remained a determining factor.

I disagree that winds should be the only basis. Ike should be proof that it doesn't have to be a "major" hurricane to cause "major" damage. It's one of the costliest hurricanes to date. True that not every hurricane is huge in size like Ike was and not every hurricane is as small as Charley. Wind AND surge should be a determining factor, IMO.

[Ed Mahmoud]

NWS and local media were quite scary about the possible surge from Ike, I feel a little sorry for people on Crystal Beach who meant to leave but got caught early by the rising water, but as a rule, people were warned. 2 people stayed on one of the fishing piers that extends over the Gulf from the sea wall.


I also remember extremely strongly worded warnings for Katrina. Especially from NWS BIX/New Orleans.

[Derek Ortt]

Numerical scales that try and stick to a single statistic are dangerous, regardless of scientific validity.

I really do think forecasters should rate each potential danger indicator on an identical scale and use the highest number to rank the Hurricane. I can't imagine why they don't do this now other than consistency with older records, which is not a very good reason.

cat2 pressure
cat1 windspeed
cat4 surge

cat4 hurricane

People will only look at the final number to decide if they stay or go. You can't fight that.

you need to understand that there is no such thing as a cat 4 surge. NONE! Surge is dependent upon topography (largely), size, etc)

[Ed Mahmoud]

As far as applying categories to surge and topography, I'd think one would also need to consider surge and how far inland/to what average height seawater would travel, versus the height of waves breaking near or on the beach as well.


No idea how to calculate that, myself.

[tolakram]

you need to understand that there is no such thing as a cat 4 surge. NONE! Surge is dependent upon topography (largely), size, etc)

I do understand that, so the same storm heading to two different locations would get a different rating. Yea, no kidding! It's a radical departure from what we do now but it's focused towards the general public in the path of the storm and not toward hurricane nuts like us. Ike would get a much higher rating because of the size of the storm.

The category idea has to be dumped, it's the numerical scale that matters. You want to quickly convey how dangerous a storm is so people can make the best decision with limited knowledge.

Ike would have easily been a 3 or 4 due to it's size and the corresponding surge potential. Katrina would have been a 5 due to surge potential, etc.

The bottom line is simple. If we are having massive damage done by storms not rated at the top of some scale then we're doing it wrong.

[Macrocane]

you need to understand that there is no such thing as a cat 4 surge. NONE! Surge is dependent upon topography (largely), size, etc)

But that doesn't mean that surge can't have a scale, for example in earthquakes the Mercalli Scale is variable from one location to another. I think that it could be helpfull to make people understand the danger of the surge.

[MGC]

JB was on Fox News this afternoon. The topic of the talk was "year without a summer" and he eventually discussed his thoughts on the 2009 hurricane season. He seems to thinks 2004 is a analogue year as far as temps across the USA. Texas and the EC are his caution areas this season. He said El Nino should retard hurricanes in the Caribbean.....MGC

[brunota2003]

Not one mention of Category anywhere...........
But still gets the point across, does it not?

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

[brunota2003]

Perhaps the answer that we seek, we overlook. There is no need for "categories" for the general public, too much weight is placed on them...not to mention the fact that every system you can create to show the strength of a system ALWAYS overshadows something critical to the lives of someone, somewhere.

Wind...overlooks surge
Surge...overlooks wind
Pressure, well, pressure can vary with both wind and surge.
Overall potential destructiveness...overshadows each element.

Has anyone even given a thought as to rainfall? I've seen surge and wind, rainfall and inland flooding can be just as devastating (don't believe me? Ask those in the islands).

Keep the categories inhouse, for "reference" purposes...but as far as the general public goes? Get RID of them. Enough "oh it is just a Category 2" or "oh, it weakened to a 4!"



Tornadoes do not get rated until after the storm, why not do the same for hurricanes if you wish to still rate them? Rate it by the damage it produced or whatever, just not while it is ongoing.

Just my $0.02

[Downdraft]

The overwhelming energy expended by a tropical cyclone is in rain. People seem to forget that fact of tropical meteorology. Those that remember tropical storms Allison in Texas and Fay last year in Florida are now more acutely aware of that. We also need to remember that thanks to Hurricane Floyd we started looked at the potential for inland rains and flooding. Folks that are just wrapped up in wind speeds often miss the other even more damaging and lasting impacts of the big picture.

JB works for, and in fact has a major personal financial stake in the company's success in increasing sales and maintaining television ratings. While the NHC is not profit driven AccuWx is so best to keep that in fact when the theatrics begin. I'm not implying much of what JB says does not have merit it does but I find some of it can also relate to Accuweather's axe to grind with the NWS and NHC. Especially when it comes to quickly burying their own blown forecasts and mistakes and open verification of their forecasts. I'm all for any discussion that increases the public's awareness of the total impact of tropical cyclones but I am not for discussions that confuse the general public more than help them. Some issues would best be discussed at an AMS conference not on the t.v. screen.

[MGC]

I don't see the hype in a system's CP. It is just a measurement and has little value when determining the destructive potential of a hurricane. Its the wind, rain and surge that destroy things and kill people.....MGC

[brunota2003]

What kind of categories are used in other basins? (Obviously the SSHS in Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic).

Yes, I know I left off tornadoes in my post, they cause damage too.