What is JB's rant about- Is a Cat 3 now just 110 mph?

[Ed Mahmoud]

NHC didn't change the definition of a major hurricane, did they?


I suspect not. If one reads the latest PPV bastardi rant, one gets the impression they did just that.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nope, I don't think NHC changed a Cat 3 from >111 mph in updated new and modern SS scale


Let me go re-read the rant to see if I misinterpreted...


Nope, don't think so

Now what is TPC doing. Well since anyone who was in Ike knows it was major hurricane, they have to figure out what to do. They simply lower the wind standard to a 110 for cat 3.

[Derek Ortt]

that is just a case of Bastardi being Bastardi. A meteorologist who is acting like a rabble rouser and not a serious scientist

Any objective look at the data clearly shows that Ike was not a category 3 hurricane at landfall. If anything, NHC's 95KT estimate is on the HIGH side (IMO, it was an 85KT cat 2 at landfall)

Bastardi is part of the problem that causes people to die in hurricanes. People do not take cat 2 hurricanes seriously and part of the reaosn why comments like Bastardi's that state Ike was a major hurricane (boy do I ever hate the term major hurricane and I no longer use it!). Instead, Ike should be paraded as an example of just how destructive a category 2 hurricane can be

[BigA]

This is a bit of a non sequiter, but does it bother anybody when someone on TV uses the term "weak hurricane" or, as I have even heard "weak category 4 hurricane"?

As far as I am concerned, there is no such thing as a "weak hurricane," merely a "weaker hurricane." Yes, a 1008 40mph tropical storm could legitimately called weak, but any system capable of producing 74 mph sustained winds is hardly weak.

As for the terms "weak category 4" or "weak category 3," those seem even more outlandish.

Just my pair of pennies.

[Derek Ortt]

"low end" or "marginal" are better choices of words than "weak"

[somethingfunny]

It's all semantics. The NHC rounds off recon numbers on wind speed to a number ending in 5 or 0. 74 mph is the threshold for a tropical storm, so does a 73 mph sustained wind round off to the closest official speed, 75 mph? or since it's not technically at 74 mph, do they round down to 70 mph even though it's not quite as accurate as a 75 mph estimate? The difference in terms of damage is miniscule, and the NHC emphasizes that in warnings on strong TS/minimal hurricanes, but the psychological difference in the media is much greater. There has never been a storm with 95 mph winds because the storms' wind speeds are actually measured in knots, and 80 kts and 85 kts get rounded off to 90 mph (Cat 1) and 100 mph (Cat 2) respectively in public advisories. Does it really make a difference? No.

I'm not a meteorologist so I can't really convert mph to knots offhand easily. But if Ike's maximum sustained winds were say 112.3 mph....it'd be rounded down to 110 mph and be declared a Category 2. If the winds were 112.7 mph, it'd be rounded up to a 115 mph Category 3 and be declared a Major Hurricane. I guess that's what Joe is getting at....although the whole argument is ridiculous to me. Whether Ike was a high-end Category 2 or a low-end Category 3, it was the storm's enormous size that made the difference in terms of severe surge and widespread wind damage. Arguing over a point of five miles per hour is ridiculous.

One of the pro-mets here can probably explain more accurately how the NHC goes about estimating a storm's strength for public advisories. In fact I'm sure the question has been asked here before.

[Derek Ortt]

you're somewhat mistaken

Some forecasters pay very close attention to thresholds (Miles Lawrence only upgraded if a storm had 64KT winds... if the 850mb flight elvel winds were 79KT, or 63 at the surface, it was kept as a 60KT TS... I also tend to follow this... not even giving the benefit of a couple of tenths). Others tend to round

if the peak sustained winds were 112.3mph, that is 97.65KT. Even if rounding were used, it would be rounded up to 100KT. You are using the wrong units as hurricane winds are measured in KT, not mph

[Derek Ortt]

and as I said, Ike was probably overstated by NHC, if there was any error at all

[MGC]

If you look at the hard data, most hurricanes are over stated at landfall. Look at the data, Katrina was a Cat-2. I can't recall seeing any SFMR data supporting Cat-3. So, now we have the first and third most destructive hurricanes that were likely Cat-2 hurricanes. The media and NHC are equally responsible for the public attitude towards hurricane category. Because Katrina was not a Cat-5 people died here in Mississippi. Folks here perceived that there was a lessor threat since Katrian had weakened. I'm sure the people in Texas had a similar attitude with Ike with the memories of Alicia and Rita fresh in their minds....MGC

[inda_iwall]

Off topic, but can we ban all references to bastardi on this forum somehow? It amazes me people really listen to him and what he has to say, i believe it is because he is always predicting a big one is just around the corner, and many just want that big one so bad they will jump onto any ship that is sailing there regardless of the captain of the ship.

[Jagno]

If you look at the hard data, most hurricanes are over stated at landfall. Look at the data, Katrina was a Cat-2. I can't recall seeing any SFMR data supporting Cat-3. So, now we have the first and third most destructive hurricanes that were likely Cat-2 hurricanes. The media and NHC are equally responsible for the public attitude towards hurricane category. Because Katrina was not a Cat-5 people died here in Mississippi. Folks here perceived that there was a lessor threat since Katrian had weakened. I'm sure the people in Texas had a similar attitude with Ike with the memories of Alicia and Rita fresh in their minds....MGC

Actually MGC; Had it not been for the massive destruction in Katrina people here would NOT have evacuated for Rita. That's why, if you go back and read posts from that timeframe, I thanked God that we had witnessed what we did and most people left when advised, including hurricane Katrina evacuees which saved many lives.

[cpdaman]

Off topic, but can we ban all references to bastardi on this forum somehow? It amazes me people really listen to him and what he has to say, i believe it is because he is always predicting a big one is just around the corner, and many just want that big one so bad they will jump onto any ship that is sailing there regardless of the captain of the ship.

i think many are in awe of nature and the more extreme the more awe there is.....bastardi plays on this like news channels play on exteme events b/c they get better ratings.....$$

MCG i think you are correct that almost all storms are overstated wind wise at landfall......they always err on the side of caution.......also seems GOM systems always weaken "more than forecast" right before landfall......due to cooler water in N gom

[wxman57]

JB is just arguing (correctly) that the SSHS is sometimes not an accurate assessment of what a "major hurricane" is. Ike was clearly major in terms of its impact, though it was only a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. JB thinks pressure should be a consideration, since a large Cat 2 hurricane like Ike with a relatively low central pressure would result in a larger hurricane force wind field which would produce more widespread damage and a larger surge.

[brunota2003]

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day (unless you are using military time )

[Derek Ortt]

If you look at the hard data, most hurricanes are over stated at landfall. Look at the data, Katrina was a Cat-2. I can't recall seeing any SFMR data supporting Cat-3. So, now we have the first and third most destructive hurricanes that were likely Cat-2 hurricanes. The media and NHC are equally responsible for the public attitude towards hurricane category. Because Katrina was not a Cat-5 people died here in Mississippi. Folks here perceived that there was a lessor threat since Katrian had weakened. I'm sure the people in Texas had a similar attitude with Ike with the memories of Alicia and Rita fresh in their minds....MGC

there were dropsondes at Louisiana that suggested it was still at cat 3 intensity there. I would have perferred 105KT and 100KT for the landfall intensities (and 95 for Rita)

[Derek Ortt]

JB is just arguing (correctly) that the SSHS is sometimes not an accurate assessment of what a "major hurricane" is. Ike was clearly major in terms of its impact, though it was only a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. JB thinks pressure should be a consideration, since a large Cat 2 hurricane like Ike with a relatively low central pressure would result in a larger hurricane force wind field which would produce more widespread damage and a larger surge.

that's why I think we should be using I.K.E. for all classifications

[HurricaneBill]

I remember reading somebody suggesting that Category 3+ hurricanes be called "intense" instead of major.

[Derek Ortt]

I remember reading somebody suggesting that Category 3+ hurricanes be called "intense" instead of major.

I oppose even that as it implies that cat 2 storms (including Isabel, Gustav, Ike, Georges, Floyd, etc. are not intense)

or look at Dolly. Made landfall as a cat 1... yet was quite destructive to South Padre

[hurricanetrack]

This is a fascinating topic. Clearly there is a need for better understanding by the public, the public that lives in hurricane prone areas, as to exactly how to deal with hurricanes. Not everyone, not even close, is as tuned in to it as most of us are.

I wonder, do the Japanese have categories for the typhoons that hit their nation? Or do they just report that a typhoon with such and such a wind speed, etc. is headed their way?

[Category 5]

that is just a case of Bastardi being Bastardi. A meteorologist who is acting like a rabble rouser and not a serious scientist

Any objective look at the data clearly shows that Ike was not a category 3 hurricane at landfall. If anything, NHC's 95KT estimate is on the HIGH side (IMO, it was an 85KT cat 2 at landfall)

Bastardi is part of the problem that causes people to die in hurricanes. People do not take cat 2 hurricanes seriously and part of the reaosn why comments like Bastardi's that state Ike was a major hurricane (boy do I ever hate the term major hurricane and I no longer use it!). Instead, Ike should be paraded as an example of just how destructive a category 2 hurricane can be

100% agree, Bastardi lives on more of hype and grabbing attention than on science.This is just him trying to get attention.

IMHO, they should eliminate the term "Major hurricane" it is EXTREMELY misleading, considering major storms such as Ike, Gustav, Floyd, Frances, and Isabel, which caused severe damage when they struck the united states, didnt qualify as major, its an extremely flawed term and needs to be done away with.