Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

4th of June run of 12z GFS

Looks like a bullish run.I will post timeframes of the run to not make many posts.

102 hours=It starts to develop a low pressure.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

126 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

144 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

162 hours=Below 1000 mbs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

180 hours=997 mbs just north of Cuba and SE of Miami.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[floridasun78]

their say here that we going rainy weekend the weatherman here in miami are picking up on gfs because their say we could have rainy next week

[boca]

I wonder if the trigger mechanism will be the wave in the Atlantic or that area south of Panama.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[cycloneye]

I wonder if the trigger mechanism will be the wave in the Atlantic or that area south of Panama.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

See my post about that at page 8.

[boca]

At 162hrs it looks like the low is 150 to 200 miles west of the 06z run. A member on another board said the GFS is too far east and will adjust west as time goes by.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFS is quite aggressive in forming the low and it looks quite strong by GFS standards...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[floridasun78]

ok so we start believing gfs that low is going form nw carribbean??? by when will we see storm forming in that area???

[boca]

At 180 to 192 hr timeframe the low is over Andros Island on the 12z run.The 06z run that the low moving thru the Central/SE Bahamas. That's a big jump.Once it forms the run to run inconsistencies will resolve itself.

[cycloneye]

I think I will stop at 180 as you can see at my post at the top of page 9,because after that is fantasyland. or guessing game.A new thread will be made about this soon so the members can discuss about this.

[boca]

Gatorcane would be all over this a week ago, where is he?

[N2Storms]

12z GFS is quite aggressive in forming the low and it looks quite strong by GFS standards...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


From that run it would appear that it could ultimately end up being a threat to the Carolinas

[cycloneye]

I am posting this loooooooong range run of GFS in a loop only to let the members see a EPAC development after 300 hours and then it crosses to the Caribbean.I give this 0% chance until it gets to 144 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[wxman57]

Why 2 threads on this possible low development? We don't need a model discussion thread for next week's possible low and another thread to discuss the possible low development in the Caribbean. What else is there to talk about but model projections this far out, anyway?

[cycloneye]

Why 2 threads on this topic? If we're posting what this or that model says on the possible Caribbean Threat thread, then we don't need to post here, too.

This is a different system with the time frame after 300 hours vs the other one that we are posting at the other thread in much less time.

[wxman57]

Why 2 threads on this topic? If we're posting what this or that model says on the possible Caribbean Threat thread, then we don't need to post here, too.

This is a different system with the time frame after 300 hours vs the other one that we are posting at the other thread in much less time.

I don't see a second system forecast by the GFS, cycloneye. The 12Z GFS develops a low east of Nicaragua on the 8th (Monday), takes it across Cuba on the 11th, then off the east U.S. Coast on the 15th and out to sea the 16th. Where's the 2nd development after the 16th? The posts here all (except your one post) talk about the development between 100-180 hrs (the Caribbean low next week).

[cycloneye]

57,this models thread was used to post all about the Caribbean system including model runs.But DESTRUCTION5 started a new thread about it and after that the members are now posting all about the Caribbean by next week in the other thread.That is why you see comments about it here until the new thread opened.

[xironman]

First time I have noticed the GFS holding something together off the African coast. Sure it is the la-la land time frame, but that is what this thread is about.

[cycloneye]

We may see the first named system (Andres) in the Eastern Pacific if GFS is right in the long range,of course this is fantasyland.But if other models join by 144 hours,then this may come to fructition.

[cycloneye]

What is that thing rolling off Africa? I know,I know the drill.

[xironman]

The low that comes off the Carolina seems to detach and stick around for a while near the GS next week.