Possible subtropical development on EC

#41 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 25, 2009 7:30 pm

For the first time the probability of cyclone formation appears for this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/

#42 Postby **wxman57** » Mon May 25, 2009 7:39 pm

Development chances very low, much lower than for the system in the Gulf last week.

floridasun78 · #43 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon May 25, 2009 7:42 pm

let see what happen with area but we can see some model picking it up

Category 5 · #44 Postby **Category 5** » Mon May 25, 2009 7:56 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Wow...tropics are getting very active for late May...
first 90-L which came very close to getting a name and
now this area off the East Coast...if El Nino doesn't
develop this summer we may have an extremely active
season...on par with 1995--- unofficial of course

....seriously?

it is MAY! Offseason activity (in this case, one freakin invest) has absolutely nothing to do with activity in the upcoming season. Please think things through before saying a season that hasn't even started yet is on par with the 3rd most active season of all time.

#45 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon May 25, 2009 8:02 pm

Category 5 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Wow...tropics are getting very active for late May...
first 90-L which came very close to getting a name and
now this area off the East Coast...if El Nino doesn't
develop this summer we may have an extremely active
season...on par with 1995--- unofficial of course

....seriously?

it is MAY! Offseason activity (in this case, one freakin invest) has absolutely nothing to do with activity in the upcoming season. Please think things through before saying a season that hasn't even started yet is on par with the 3rd most active season of all time.

Exactly. Ive seen a few seasons with a TC either pre season or in June that turned out to be slow or average seasons.

#46 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon May 25, 2009 8:10 pm

george_r_1961 wrote:
Category 5 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Wow...tropics are getting very active for late May...
first 90-L which came very close to getting a name and
now this area off the East Coast...if El Nino doesn't
develop this summer we may have an extremely active
season...on par with 1995--- unofficial of course

....seriously?

it is MAY! Offseason activity (in this case, one freakin invest) has absolutely nothing to do with activity in the upcoming season. Please think things through before saying a season that hasn't even started yet is on par with the 3rd most active season of all time.

Exactly. Ive seen a few seasons with a TC either pre season or in June that turned out to be slow or average seasons.

SEASON CANCEL!!!

wyq614 · #47 Postby **wyq614** » Mon May 25, 2009 8:28 pm

Well, the shear has reduced to moderate around 20kts now, and it has a decent, albeit not very deep, vorticity, diffluence and convergence are there, so the area is worth watching at least.

Off season development is not impossible like super typhoon CIMARON in WPAC during February, in my humble opinion, it is always good to watch than to repeat the phrase "little chance for it, little chance~"

Chacor · #48 Postby **Chacor** » Mon May 25, 2009 8:46 pm

Uh, Cimaron was an in-season development.

#49 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 25, 2009 9:02 pm

wyq614 · #50 Postby **wyq614** » Mon May 25, 2009 9:03 pm

Chacor wrote:Uh, Cimaron was an in-season development.

Well I'm wrong, you can say that the WPAC typhoon season lasts a whole year because it does not have an official beginning or ending like the ATLC and EPAC season... but a February development is definitely rare for WPAC when the basin haas its lowest SST of the year.

#51 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 25, 2009 9:07 pm

#52 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 25, 2009 9:12 pm

#53 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 25, 2009 9:25 pm

Chacor · #54 Postby **Chacor** » Mon May 25, 2009 9:35 pm

wyq614 wrote:
Chacor wrote:Uh, Cimaron was an in-season development.

Well I'm wrong, you can say that the WPAC typhoon season lasts a whole year because it does not have an official beginning or ending like the ATLC and EPAC season... but a February development is definitely rare for WPAC when the basin haas its lowest SST of the year.

Check your source again, because what I meant was Cimaron 2006 formed in October.

#55 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 25, 2009 9:39 pm

850mb vorticity graphic.

#56 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 25, 2009 10:15 pm

00z NAM shows low just off Outerbanks in 54 hours.

floridasun78 · #57 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon May 25, 2009 10:46 pm

let see how area look on tue

Ed Mahmoud · #58 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon May 25, 2009 10:57 pm

george_r_1961 wrote:
Category 5 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Wow...tropics are getting very active for late May...
first 90-L which came very close to getting a name and
now this area off the East Coast...if El Nino doesn't
develop this summer we may have an extremely active
season...on par with 1995--- unofficial of course

....seriously?

it is MAY! Offseason activity (in this case, one freakin invest) has absolutely nothing to do with activity in the upcoming season. Please think things through before saying a season that hasn't even started yet is on par with the 3rd most active season of all time.

Exactly. Ive seen a few seasons with a TC either pre season or in June that turned out to be slow or average seasons.

1997 started fast out of the blocks, Hurricane Danny hitting Louisiana in July, and then El Neenyo just killed that season.
I think I went too high with my final hurricane numbers on the big poll. Oh well.

Rainband · #59 Postby **Rainband** » Mon May 25, 2009 11:00 pm

Category 5 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Wow...tropics are getting very active for late May...
first 90-L which came very close to getting a name and
now this area off the East Coast...if El Nino doesn't
develop this summer we may have an extremely active
season...on par with 1995--- unofficial of course

....seriously?

it is MAY! Offseason activity (in this case, one freakin invest) has absolutely nothing to do with activity in the upcoming season. Please think things through before saying a season that hasn't even started yet is on par with the 3rd most active season of all time.

That's his opinion, Chill out a bit and have some respect for his opinion ok. This is S2K

Ed Mahmoud · #60 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon May 25, 2009 11:04 pm

Color satellite loop

Shear is higher than what is considered favorable, but isn't excessive, the streamlines seem to suggest the clouds are just West of a weak anticyclone, and in the upward motion region of the jet.

I have no idea if this will develop, but I'll unoficially give it 33.3% chance of becoming 91L by lunch time Wednesday. No better than that, CIMMS low level convergence map not looking impressive.

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