Possible subtropical development on EC

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 25, 2009 12:18 pm

12z CMC has a weak low making landfall at outerbanks in 48 hours.

#22 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 25, 2009 12:30 pm

#23 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 25, 2009 12:30 pm

KWT · #24 Postby **KWT** » Mon May 25, 2009 1:01 pm

It looks very linear at the moment but can't rule out something developing along the storms as waters are warm enough and the models do try and develop a weak system out of it as well.

#25 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 25, 2009 1:28 pm

vacanechaser · #26 Postby **vacanechaser** » Mon May 25, 2009 1:45 pm

clearly a spin taking shape... does not look lke it is at the surface right now... but it is certainly taking shape... nice blow up over it too...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Aric Dunn · #27 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon May 25, 2009 2:09 pm

yeah keep an eye on this area today.. there some interesting aspects to this system..

sst's are marginal along the path..
gulf stream near north and south carolina are mid to maybe upper 70's in some spots..

if it stays farther west more of a chance, gulf stream is warmer..

Aric Dunn · #28 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon May 25, 2009 2:15 pm

also .. things will take shape fairly rapidly today and tonight ... could be tropical or sub trop ..( if something does get going ... )

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 25, 2009 2:18 pm

#30 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 25, 2009 2:35 pm

TropicalWXMA · #31 Postby **TropicalWXMA** » Mon May 25, 2009 2:40 pm

#32 Postby **xironman** » Mon May 25, 2009 2:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:yeah keep an eye on this area today.. there some interesting aspects to this system..

sst's are marginal along the path..
gulf stream near north and south carolina are mid to maybe upper 70's in some spots..

if it stays farther west more of a chance, gulf stream is warmer..

Diamond Shoals is 78 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41025

Aric Dunn · #33 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon May 25, 2009 2:45 pm

xironman wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:yeah keep an eye on this area today.. there some interesting aspects to this system..

sst's are marginal along the path..
gulf stream near north and south carolina are mid to maybe upper 70's in some spots..

if it stays farther west more of a chance, gulf stream is warmer..

Diamond Shoals is 78 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41025

yep thats plenty ... for sub trop and tropical if its moving a little faster..

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #34 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon May 25, 2009 4:39 pm

Wow...tropics are getting very active for late May...
first 90-L which came very close to getting a name and
now this area off the East Coast...if El Nino doesn't
develop this summer we may have an extremely active
season...on par with 1995--- unofficial of course

#35 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon May 25, 2009 5:23 pm

Well, QuikScat does not currently show any closed circulation, however, there are a couple of 50 knot barbs that are not blacked out (meaning possible rain contamination if they are blacked out) just to the east of the islands:

I do not know if there is actual surface winds that strong, but the fact that there are two barbs indicating 50 knot winds (estimated) is interesting nonetheless.

#36 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 25, 2009 5:27 pm

That pass was made at 6:58 AM EDT (Look at number at the bottom) Tonights pass will have more answers to what is really going on there..

#37 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon May 25, 2009 5:30 pm

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: That pass was made at 6:58 AM EDT (Look at number at the bottom) Tonights pass will have more answers to what is really going on there..

Glad someone knows how to read the numbers :lol:

I've been out of the loop for the past few days (was in Florida visiting my girl for memorial day weekend) and have been trying to catch up. Still interesting to see those barbs in the area we are looking at.

catastrophic · #38 Postby **catastrophic** » Mon May 25, 2009 5:36 pm

this pass shows a more definable area of winds

#39 Postby **wxman57** » Mon May 25, 2009 6:50 pm

There are a number of surface obs in the region. All are from the southeast at 15-20 kts. Surface pressures there in the 1013-1015mb range. Definitely no turning at the surface, and I don't see much aloft. Just an area to keep an eye on. Threat is minimal. Could cause a few thunderstorms across the Outer Banks of NC on Wednesday, that's about it.

#40 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 25, 2009 7:14 pm

From the TWD at 8 PM EDT:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N W OF
70W INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT INLAND LOCATIONS OF
FLORIDA...AS WELL AS S OF 24N W OF 67W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE SE BAHAMAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS EXTENDING FROM 25N76W TO 23N75W
TO 21N74W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE
TROUGH. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING
SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

Possible subtropical development on EC

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