What Are The Analog Years For 09 Hurricane Season?

[Blown Away]

What Are The Analog Years For 09 Hurricane Season?

[StormClouds63]

I think one year for sure is 1996 ... I've also read that 1951 and/or 1957 are possibilities. I may be omitting others, but I'm sure members on the board will chime in.

Check out the tracks at http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html

[jinftl]

Dr. Gray chose the 5 years he cites below in his April 2009 update:

We select prior hurricane seasons since 1949 which have similar atmospheric-oceanic conditions to those currently being experienced. We searched for years that were generally characterized by weak La Niña conditions, near-average tropical Atlantic SSTs and above-average far North Atlantic SSTs during February-March.
There were five hurricane seasons since 1949 with characteristics most similar to what we observed in February-March 2009.

The best analog years that we could find for the 2009 hurricane season were 1951, 1968, 1976, 1985 and 2001. We anticipate that 2009 seasonal hurricane activity will have activity in line with what was experienced in the average of these five years. We believe that 2009 will have about average activity in the Atlantic basin.
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... pr2009.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

Dr. Gray chose the 5 years he cites below in his April 2009 update:

We select prior hurricane seasons since 1949 which have similar atmospheric-oceanic conditions to those currently being experienced. We searched for years that were generally characterized by weak La Niña conditions, near-average tropical Atlantic SSTs and above-average far North Atlantic SSTs during February-March.
There were five hurricane seasons since 1949 with characteristics most similar to what we observed in February-March 2009.

The best analog years that we could find for the 2009 hurricane season were 1951, 1968, 1976, 1985 and 2001. We anticipate that 2009 seasonal hurricane activity will have activity in line with what was experienced in the average of these five years. We believe that 2009 will have about average activity in the Atlantic basin.
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... pr2009.pdf

1985 was not a good year for us. Four hurricanes and two tropical storm made landfall that year.
Bob
Danny
Elena
Gloria
Juan
Kate

2001 was the year of Allison.

[jinftl]

Looking at the tracks for those analog years, they don't lean too heavily in any area in terms of areas of development and tracks...there are long-trakkers, 'fish' storms, development in the gulf and close to the coast...all in all, very 'typical' seasons....any area is at risk...and it only takes one.

Dr. Gray chose the 5 years he cites below in his April 2009 update:

We select prior hurricane seasons since 1949 which have similar atmospheric-oceanic conditions to those currently being experienced. We searched for years that were generally characterized by weak La Niña conditions, near-average tropical Atlantic SSTs and above-average far North Atlantic SSTs during February-March.
There were five hurricane seasons since 1949 with characteristics most similar to what we observed in February-March 2009.

The best analog years that we could find for the 2009 hurricane season were 1951, 1968, 1976, 1985 and 2001. We anticipate that 2009 seasonal hurricane activity will have activity in line with what was experienced in the average of these five years. We believe that 2009 will have about average activity in the Atlantic basin.
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... pr2009.pdf

1985 was not a good year for us. Four hurricanes and two tropical storm made landfall that year.
Bob
Danny
Elena
Gloria
Juan
Kate

2001 was the year of Allison.