Third round...for an Unsetteled Weather in Eastern Caribbean

[Jimsot]

I powerful storm off of Anguillas Northeast Coast produced some small water spouts this afternoon. I didn't have my camera!

[knotimpaired]

All I can say about this crap is we are sick and tired of the rain and clouds.

The rain has been consistent but light and we literally have had sunlight maybe 1/2 day in the past few weeks.

Someone do a sun dance for us.

Well everyone, I guess it is the season to hear from us again.

[msbee]

send us some of your rain

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST FRI MAY 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN VERY PROBLEMATIC TODAY
AS TREMENDOUS AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
HAS BEEN MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...AND MAYBE EVEN A BIT NORTHEAST
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TO MID
LEVEL ROTATION ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...OVER PUERTO
RICO...WHICH SEEMED TO FORM EARLIER TODAY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE
AND MOVED EAST WITH THE ENTIRE MAZE OF CLOUDS FROM THE LARGER SYSTEM.
BOTH GFS AND NAM12 WEAKEN THEIR 500MB VORT CENTERS WHICH SEEM TO
BE THE DRIVING FORCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT NORTH OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THINK THEY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY HARD TIME
WITH IT.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE ALL IN PLACE...BUT HEAVY DENSE OVERCAST
HAS KEPT A SOLID LID ON CONVECTION THUS FAR. NEVERTHELESS...THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CHUG SLOWLY NEWD...CLOSER TO THE
AREA. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND CONVECTION IS WEAKENING...BUT
THIS COULD BE A TEMPORARY TREND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WESTERN
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
FORECAST...BUT GOING WITH HIGHER CHANCES WEST THAN EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN HIGH POPS AGAIN AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR
MOST OF PUERTO RICO AGAIN TOMORROW. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
SITUATION IS VERY HARD TO TRACK...SO STAY TUNED FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
FORECAST AND WATCHES. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AS
OF NOW...ALTHOUGH SEEMS LIKELY CHANCES OF CONVECTION ARE RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING.

BY SUNDAY...IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM HAS DISSOLVED OR LEFT
THE AREA...A DRIER AIRMASS MAY BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN AND LEAD
TO MORE LOCALIZED EFFECT TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONCENTRATED OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR/APPROACHING RUNWAY AT
TJBQ...TJMZ...TJSJ...TIST AND TISX AS LOW MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.MARINE...QUITE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOST LIKELY OVER THE MONA
CHANNEL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS...SEAS MAINLY LESS THAN 4 FEET.

[Jimsot]

Well I had to run and shut everything down as some of those storms headed for our southeast coast and Sandy Hill Bay. All quiet now, but the rain gauge says 2 inches in about 2 hours, happy, happy cistern. The lightening and thunder was awful and I hear more off in the distance. Going out for dinner.

[knotimpaired]

Well everyone loves rain. We have a acre of exotic plants. We always prayed for rain so we did not have to water.

But our dryer quit about a month ago and we are waiting for Sears to deliver the new one. I do not mind hanging clothes but this weather has made it almost impossible to dry anything.

We here on Vieques are way below the average rainfall, and little spits here and there, just enough to curb our fun, sucks.

[msbee]

Jimsot
you got all that rain in Anguilla?
we got nothing!

[Jimsot]

We did indeed get all that rain. Many times we sit on our dry pool patio as the skys open up at Grand Case or Orient on St Martin! Finally pictures are up of last weeks water spouts on the northeast coast of Anguilla(Shoal Bay).

[msbee]

Wow, what a fabulous picture.
thanks for posting it
Barbara

[floridasun78]

We did indeed get all that rain. Many times we sit on our dry pool patio as the skys open up at Grand Case or Orient on St Martin! Finally pictures are up of last weeks water spouts on the northeast coast of Anguilla(Shoal Bay).

their did any damage?

[Jimsot]

No, they stayed offshore and only lasted about 45 minutes.

[Cyclone1]

Wow! Beautiful pictures! That's quite a sight.