Less than a day to EPAC season!- Its here!

[Ed Mahmoud]

And with a warm cycle ENSO possible by prime time, maybe this will be the year we get a weakening tropical cyclone to California ala 1939.

They need the rain. We might get new Cali based members.



Plus we can read NHC tropical weather outlooks over 2 weeks earlier than those who wait for the Atlantic Season.

[cycloneye]

Here are the names that will be used for the 2009 EPAC season.

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Patricia
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina
York
Zelda

[RL3AO]

And with a warm cycle ENSO possible by prime time, maybe this will be the year we get a weakening tropical cyclone to California ala 1939.

Is it really worth the non-stop news coverage of "Is global warming bring hurricanes to California?".

[Ed Mahmoud]

And with a warm cycle ENSO possible by prime time, maybe this will be the year we get a weakening tropical cyclone to California ala 1939.

Is it really worth the non-stop news coverage of "Is global warming bring hurricanes to California?".

Joe Bastardi believes the California droughts and fires are a result of a warmer Atlantic and cooler Pacific, possibly related to global cooling, (or possibly just a normal part of a decadal cycle, which (IIRC) CSU's Dr. Gray postulates is influenced by ocean currents and effects of temperature and salinity thereon) because cold Pacific cycles have fewer/weaker El Niño events, which is causing reduced rainfall.

If you haven't noticed, the term now is 'climate change', so any change in climate can now be blamed on human interference, whether the evidence supports it or not.

I'm not at all certain that AGW isn't real, but I don't completely trust the most vociferous proponents of it.



On a side note, although I am in general (not complete) agreement with JB's doubts about AGW and its supporters, since the issue became bigger a few years ago, more rants about the issue, less detailed explanations of his theories of mid-long term weather patterns/trends make reading him a bit less enjoyable and informative.


But anyway, EPAC season is just around the corner, and soon we'll have NHC invests. I follow "off-season" TCs near places I've been, like Australia and the Philippines, or that become notably intense, but I plead guilty to paying way more attention to watching for storms closer to home.

I'm not the only one, BTW, because there is no way Hurricane Ike should have been storm of the year for 2008 when tens of thousands died in a cyclone in Myanmar. Even though I was directly affected by Ike, it makes no sense for me that it 'won' storm of the year. But people are most interested in what is close to them.

[RL3AO]

19 1/2 hours until EPac season (UTC) or 26 1/2 hours (PDT).

[KWT]

Yep very nearly at the EPAC season, with a weak/moderate El Nino setting up may well see another above average season like 2006.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB sees an active season for both EPAC and WPAC.

[KWT]

If we have an El Nino then odds do favour that occuring and to be honest I wouldn't be at all surprised if that is the case, though all depends on how much the atmosphere reacts to the El Nino's developments.

[Evil Jeremy]

Happy E-Pac season!

[JonathanBelles]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151140
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM ANNUAL
AVERAGES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES IN THIS BASIN ARE 15 AND
9 RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2009 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ANDRES AHN DRASE- MARTY
BLANCA BLAHN- KAH NORA
CARLOS OLAF OH- LAHF
DOLORES PATRICIA
ENRIQUE ANH REE- KAY RICK
FELICIA FA LEE- SHA SANDRA
GUILLERMO GEE YER- MO TERRY
HILDA VIVIAN
IGNACIO EEG NAH- CIO WALDO
JIMENA HE MAY- NA XINA ZEE- NAH
KEVIN YORK
LINDA ZELDA ZEL- DAH

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEGINNING THIS
YEAR...THE OUTLOOK WILL ALSO CONTAIN CATEGORICAL PROBABILITIES OF
FORMATION...I.E. LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...MEDIUM...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OR HIGH...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR EACH DISTURBANCE
DESCRIBED. THE ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5
PM...AND 11 PM PDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN
NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM
PST.

IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
COULD BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES
IN BETWEEN ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AND
WILL NO LONGER BE ISSUED. INSTEAD...A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN
BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER
THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE
DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED
EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN
ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME
TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES
OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR PRECEDING THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

USERS WILL NOTICE A SLIGHT CHANGE TO REFERENCES TO THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE IN NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PUBLIC
PRODUCTS THIS YEAR. EVEN THOUGH THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE CATEGORY
(1-5) IS DETERMINED SOLELY BY THE HURRICANE'S MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED...THE SCALE TRADITIONALLY HAS ALSO INCLUDED STORM SURGE
RANGES AND FLOODING REFERENCES. ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS FOR THE
2009 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON...THESE STORM SURGE RANGES AND
FLOODING REFERENCES WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE DESCRIPTIONS FOR EACH
CATEGORY. WITH THIS MODIFICATION...THE SCALE HAS BEEN RENAMED THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO
THE WIND SPEED THRESHOLDS OF THE SCALE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THIS EXPERIMENTAL CHANGE AND ON HOW TO PROVIDE COMMENTS...PLEASE
SEE /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/INFOSERVICECHANGES/SSHWS.PDF

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN/PASCH

[gatorcane]

JB sees an active season for both EPAC and WPAC.

It seems every year the EPAC is more active than the Atlantic, so this is nothing new.

[RL3AO]

13 hours and no storms yet? This seasons a bust.

[HURAKAN]

13 hours and no storms yet? This seasons a bust.

I agree, season cancelled!

[Category 5]

13 hours and no storms yet? This seasons a bust.

Yep, close the door on the 2009 EPAC season.

[Cookie]

13 hours and no storms yet? This seasons a bust.

I blame it on Obama

[cycloneye]

The Eastern Pacific has had since 1999 until 2008 one named system in May,but in 2009 no May named system developed so that streak is over.It had its first invest,but rapidly faded.The big question is,when will the first named storm form in that basin?

[somethingfunny]

The Eastern Pacific has had since 1999 until 2008 one named system in May,but in 2009 no May named system developed so that streak is over.It had its first invest,but rapidly faded.The big question is,when will the first named storm form in that basin?

Start a poll!

I say June 10.

[HURAKAN]

What is interesting is that 1999 was a slow year for the EPAC and 1997 was one of the most active, both didn't have a named May storm!

[Chacor]

ABPZ30 KNHC 011631
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING MAY IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC. ON AVERAGE A TROPICAL STORM FORMS ONCE EVERY OTHER
MAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1999 THAT NO TROPICAL
CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE