H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

[Dionne]

"At this time the CDC recommends that U.S. travelers avoid all non-essential travel to Mexico."

Seems like a straight forward warning.

[cycloneye]

Swine Flu case confirmed in Orlando

ORLANDO, Fla. -- Eyewitness News has learned of Orlando's first confirmed case of swine flu. According to the chief medical officer for Adventist Health System, Loran Hauck, the case was diagnosed Tuesday morning.

"A case was diagnosed here in Orlando today on a tourist from Mexico who came to Disney attractions two days ago to visit," Hauck wrote in an email obtained by Eyewitness News.

No further details have been released, but Eyewitness News is working to learn specifically what days the tourist was at the parks and which park the tourist went to.

http://www.wftv.com/news/19311020/detail.html

[O Town]

Great, now I can be really paranoid.
Time to put sanitizer in the kids pockets before they head out to school.
That is who I am most worried about is the kids at school because viruses
run rampid there and kids don't take time to wash hands and they cough and sneeze
everywhere. *sigh*

[Derek Ortt]

well... closing the borders would have stopped the Orlando case

it is time we stop worrying about if we offend Mexico and start doing what is in our best interest. That would be stopping the number of carriers into the country

[somethingfunny]

I'm just going to repost this because nobody ever reads the last post on the previous page.

My basic point is this is way overblown in my opinion, for those with ADD.

Little under 200 have died from the pig virus...and 36,000 die yearly from the basic flu..

Ill take my chances....

As of early this morning the kill ratio with this virus is 1/16. Those odds are nothing to take chances with.....

There is also the possibility that this is more than one virus.

That 6% mortality rate has been pretty consistent with each set of numbers released by Mexico. I'm not sure I trust it because I think the number of cases in Mexico has been underreported. For instance there have only been 172 laboratory confirmed cases in Mexico compared to the 2,000+ generally being reported right now. Even those 2,000+ are only the ones who were sick enough to be hospitalized and therefore reported to the authorities. Especially before the outbreak became a national emergency, most people with milder cases probably just stayed home from work and slept for about a week like a normal flu. Consider that out of 50 confirmed cases in the US, only 2 patients are currently sick enough to be hospitalized. The only reason the other 48+ were reported is because of hypervigilant testing by medical authorities here and elsewhere around the world.

The math is still subject to variability, but if you were to apply that ratio to Mexican swine flu cases as well it gives you a total of 50,000 Mexicans infected with swine flu, 2,000 of which are sick enough to requite hospitalization, and 150 dead, or a 0.03% mortality rate.

This is the best explanations I can come up with as to why none of the cases outside of Mexico seem to be very severe (yet):
- Statistically, by applying the Mexican ratio (6% mortality) to American cases, we ought to have at least 3 deaths from swine flu in the U.S. by now, and since we don't that implies that the strain in Mexico is somehow different and more deadly than the strain that crossed the border (in multiple places and airports simultaneously, it seems)
- By applying the American statistics to the Mexican cases, the numbers suggest that 50,000 or more Mexicans may actually be infected with the swine flu or were infected over the past month, implying that the Mexican government has only been able to track down and report the most serious cases. (0.03% mortality)
- Since the strains in the US and in Mexico have been proven to be genetically identical in laboratory testing, and since the Mexican government is understandably overwhelmed right now....I'm leaning towards the second explanation.

The truth is probably somewhere in between. I wish we had more information as far as how sick the 2,000+ suspected/confirmed flu patients in Mexico who survived actually got, because that would explain alot as to whether the Mexican numbers are underestimated compared to American/global numbers, or not.


...All that said, I'm not as concerned with this as I was about 48 hours ago. Even though the virus has been confirmed to exist and is likely spreading here in DFW right now, so far all of the cases have been in schoolchildren (not young adults as the apocalyptic pandemic would target) and they've been pretty minor cases at that. Also, if the children had transmitted the disease to their parents we should have heard about it by now....so that's also a bit confusing.

[artist]

my son said they had not traveled that he knew of (not to say they hadn't) but I think it interesting that they still are not showing the one in Orlando or the one here on the maps or tables from the cdc yet.

[RL3AO]

Keep your eye on this. Possibly the first American deaths from this outbreak.

"The Los Angeles County coroner's office is investigating two recent deaths for links to swine flu."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,518196,00.html

[PTrackerLA]

According to Fox News NY officials are reporting possibly hundreds of school children now sick with the swine flu. Not good at all if true.

[Brent]

Swine Flu case confirmed in Orlando

ORLANDO, Fla. -- Eyewitness News has learned of Orlando's first confirmed case of swine flu. According to the chief medical officer for Adventist Health System, Loran Hauck, the case was diagnosed Tuesday morning.

"A case was diagnosed here in Orlando today on a tourist from Mexico who came to Disney attractions two days ago to visit," Hauck wrote in an email obtained by Eyewitness News.

No further details have been released, but Eyewitness News is working to learn specifically what days the tourist was at the parks and which park the tourist went to.

http://www.wftv.com/news/19311020/detail.html

Now saying it's not true. There is apparently no confirmed Swine Flu in Florida.

[Dionne]

For "somethingfunny".......you comment about being the last post on a page and those of us having ADD was inappropriate.

Meanwhile as the virus spreads.....Fox News is now reporting the possibility of hundreds of NYC school children infected. An unnamed official at CDC has told us to expect deaths here in the states.

[HURAKAN]

http://wdbo.com/localnews/2009/04/swine ... n-orl.html

The Orlando case remains unconfirmed as they wait for the CDC lab report.

[Category 5]

Such panic, this will run its course and fade away.

[RL3AO]

Such panic, this will run its course and fade away.

Or it will become a global pandemic that kills 250 million. Who knows.

[Category 5]

Such panic, this will run its course and fade away.

Or it will become a global pandemic that kills 250 million. Who knows.

Who knows, I'm leaning strongly toward the media induced panic side.

[RL3AO]

Yep. The media loves these kinds of things.

[Brent]

Such panic, this will run its course and fade away.

Or it will become a global pandemic that kills 250 million. Who knows.

Who knows, I'm leaning strongly toward the media induced panic side.

So am I.

One of the L.A. deaths has been ruled out as Swine Flu, other one is still being tested.

[abajan]

I don't know if it's been mentioned in this thread before but is it possible that deaths have only occurred in Mexico because there's a genetic aspect to this particular strain of flu? For instance, it's been well documented that Africans (Blacks) in this hemisphere have a higher incidence of hypertension than the general population. The most widely accepted hypothesis for this can be found at http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index ... 948AAh84A5 (Best answer).

Were any of the infected people, outside of Mexico, Latinos?

[Rainband]

the media should take a day off, I think we would be shocked at the positive effects of this

[Stephanie]

That's a good question abajan.

It could be media hype, but the fact that this thing is popping up world wide is scary enough. I'd like to know where the other people from Scotland, New Zealand, Israel, etc. were recently. I'm hoping that it's media hype and that's it.

[RL3AO]

The pork industry is proposing the name "North American flu" for obvious reasons. Makes sense considering the virus is a mix of swine, avian, and human influenza.