Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll pay more attention to Day 4 and Day 5 tomorrow, the SWODY2 Outlook makes me thing tomorrow's SWODY1 will upgrade Arkansas and immediate vicinity to a MODERATE RISK.


Latest WRF doesn't show much precip tomorrow in the highest probability area, but while I used to trust the ETA, I don't trust the WRF all that much, and want to see the 12Z GFS.

I just pulled a muscle patting myself on the back.


Oh, the soundings around FSM and HOT seem to have favorable low level shear, instability and reasonably low LFC/LCL for tornadoes.

[Dave]

[Ed Mahmoud]

It is 16º (60ºF) in Hot Springs now, the NAM skew-T seems to believe temps will be closer to 70ºF. Looks pretty cloudy. Of course, mid April (same as early September) sun angle may warm things up a little even if the clouds don't break.


Dewpoints coming back, already 14º at HOT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The clouds seem in no hurry to break up, and the areas of rain shown on radar aren't helping with the warm up either.


In my amateur opinion, I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't a "Moderate" outbreak.


Comparing satellite loop to observed winds and dewpoints, the back edge of the clouds is pretty near the dry line.

[srainhoutx]

SPC continues Moderate Risk...



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU APR 09 2009

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO AND WESTERN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A FOCUSED BUT POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN
HIGH PLAINS. AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW ALONG KS/OK BORDER WITH
PRIMARY CENTER SWRN KS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE EWD TO BE
LOCATED S OF ICT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...SOUTHEASTERN KS/NORTHEASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY LINE CURRENTLY SHARPENING UP WRN OK WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AFTER 21Z. RAPID MOISTENING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING AS STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS GULF AIRMASS NORTHWARD INTO OK/AR. BY MID
AFTERNOON...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF EASTERN OK EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH NEAR 50F
DEWPOINTS WRAPPING WESTWARD ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW. THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION UNTIL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STRONG FORCING AND
COOLING ALOFT WILL YIELD A NARROW ZONE OF WEAKENING CAP ALONG THE
OK/KS BORDER BY 19-21Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN THIS ZONE AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SUGGEST THE RISK OF RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...EASTERN OK/SOUTHWEST MO/WESTERN AR...

ONLY ADJUSTMENT IN THIS AREA WAS TO SHIFT THE INITIATION ZONE A
LITTLE FURTHER W BASED ON SUGGESTIONS BY HIGH RES MODELS AND RUC
THAT THE STRONG HEATING COULD ERODE CAP SUFFICIENTLY ALONG DRY LINE
TO REMOVE CINH PRIOR TO DRY LINE MIXING TO THE E OF A TUL/MLC LINE.
UPON DEVELOPMENT...THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND
WESTERN AR DURING THE EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL VEERING AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT...POSING A RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE
LOWER 60S AT BEST ACROSS THE MDT AREA...BUT RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG AND WIND PROFILES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS AR AND SOUTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KY/TN. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...BUT STRONGER CELLS
WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

..HALES/SMITH.. 04/09/2009

[Ed Mahmoud]

I guess that is why they are paid experts, and I am only an amateur.

But it still looks like the back edge of the clouds is near the dryline. OKC looks like the dryline just mixed through. (Times are EDT, adjust one hour). Temperature spike, dewpoint dropping and wind shifted.

Latest 1 PM (17) Apr 09 82.0 (27.8) 39.9 (4.4) 29.41 (995) SW 24
Noon (16) Apr 09 73.9 (23.3) 43.0 (6.1) 29.44 (996) S 16

Looks like that is near the back edge of the clouds.


About 'strong heating', Tulsa warmed one degree, from 18 to 19º in the last hour (66ºF).


I'll take their word about strong wind profiles and cooling aloft, but I think the cloud cover knocks the level of severe down a category.

Just one guys opinion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

15Z RUC still shows a mother of all severe weather soundings for Hot Springs at 7 and 10 pm tonight, with EHI in excess of 6. Which is pretty impressive.

However, the 3 hour RUC forecast temp, looking at the PSU e-Wall RUC display and the forecast skew-T, for 1 pm, suggests temps should be between 66 and 68ºF at 1 pm.

63º as of Noon CDT. If the temp gets closer to 66ºF in the next 20 minutes, I'll pay a little more attention, as RUC generates scary numbers with temps between 68º and 70ºF at 7 pm.


ETA: Satellite loop does suggest clouds are eroding away faster than the dryline is moving, so maybe there will be some strong heating ahead of the dry line.

And to think, I was doubting SPC.


Double Edit to Add- radar seems to suggest the dryline is barely moving now in the I-35 corridor, so we should get some primo mid-day insolation in the warm sector.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091747Z - 092015Z

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER E CNTRL OK BY 20-21Z.
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19-20Z.

THIS AFTERNOON A SHARPENING DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW IN SW KS SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK THEN SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL AND W
CNTRL TX. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MULTILAYER CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION IS ADVANCING RAPIDLY EAST...ALLOWING FOR A CORRIDOR OF
PARTIAL CLEARING AND DIABATIC HEATING FROM N CNTRL TX THROUGH E
CNTRL OK. AXIS OF MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS IS ADVECTING RAPIDLY NWD
THROUGH ERN OK BENEATH VERY STEEP 8+ C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE WARM
EML. HOWEVER...AS AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION
OF APPROACHING UPPER JET BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE CONVERGENCE AXIS
ALONG THE DRYLINE...THE CAPPING LAYER WILL LIKELY MOISTEN AND COOL
SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY 20-21Z. COUPLED LOW-MID
LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL MAINTAIN LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 04/09/2009


ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN KS / NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091757Z - 091900Z

SURFACE-BASED INITIATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE 1930-2100Z PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN KS AND EXTREME NRN OK. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ONCE STORMS ORGANIZE AND MOVE INTO
MOISTURE AXIS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF IMPLIED ASCENT PUSHING EWD
OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AS CU FIELD DEVELOPS OVER NWRN OK WITHIN
POST-DRYLINE THERMAL AXIS. SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MASS/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE OK/KS BORDER IS OCCURRING ALONG SLOWLY
RETREATING WARM FRONT/BULGING DRYLINE AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE SITUATED OVER SWRN KS. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE UNCAPPED SURFACE-BASED PARCELS AS EARLY AS 19-20Z. AS ZONE
OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP ASCENT OVERSPREAD HIGHLIGHTED REGION
CONCURRENT WITH FURTHER DIABATIC HEATING--WILL RESULT IN STORMS
LIKELY INITIATING NEAR ABOVE DESCRIBED INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES.

ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...NNE-NELY STORM MOTIONS WILL ENABLE STORMS TO
CROSS INTO WELL DEFINED THETA-E AXIS ACROSS NRN OK EXTENDING NWWD
INTO SRN KS WITHIN BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH RAPIDLY COOLING
MID-LEVEL PROFILES /-20 DEG C AT 500 MB PER LATEST DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT/ WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE
1000-2500 J/KG/. LARGE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY INVOF DESCRIBED
BOUNDARIES AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL AUGMENT UPDRAFTS IN
VICINITY OF WARM FRONT/DRYLINE BULGE LEADING TO THE RISK OF ISOLD
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

..SMITH.. 04/09/2009


ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

[RL3AO]

That little table under the image is pretty cool if you go to this link.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0123.html

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

DISCUSSION...POTENT TROUGH AND STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS
OK AND N/S DRY LINE IN ADVANCE JUST E OF I35 CORRIDOR. AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF DRY LINE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AND WITH STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES AND LARGE ASCENT WITH TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ERN OK. IN ADDITION TO VERY
LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES POSSIBLY STRONG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.

[Dave]

[srainhoutx]

Before it get too active today, Updated Day 2 SPC Outlook may Offer another Moderate Risk tomorrow as well...


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH AND TN
VALLEY SWD INTO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES AND EWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE TRANSLATING EWD FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT AN UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM/JET STREAK WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE MEAN TROUGH BASE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO VA/NC FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS ERN U.S. WAVE WILL PRECEED A MORE
INTENSE TROUGH WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER
THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO NRN BAJA AND THE GULF OF CA.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH
RIVERS AT 10/12Z WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS NRN KY AND SRN
WV...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE DELMARVA BY 11/12Z. ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND GULF STATES TO ALONG
THE MID/SERN ATLANTIC COASTS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES AND EWD TO THE
CAROLINAS...

EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME OBSERVED OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL BE ADVECTED EWD INTO THE REGION WITH WSWLY AIRFLOW
REGIME...ALONG SRN THROUGH ERN PERIPHERIES OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
WHILE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE OVERLY MOIST /I.E.
DEWPOINTS IN 50S OVER KY/TN TO LOWER/MID 60S OVER THE GULF
STATES/...THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH GENERALLY COOL
MIDLEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL YIELD MLCAPE APPROACHING
1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE TN VALLEY/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...TO 1500-2000
J/KG OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.

TSTMS /SOME SEVERE/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN
ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OH
AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...AS WELL AS WITHIN WAA REGIME FARTHER E ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN TN/AL/NRN GA. THE FORMER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN SWD INTO AL AS
STRONGER FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ACT ON DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.

GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR RANGING FROM 30-40 KT INVOF SURFACE LOW OVER KY TO 50-65 KT
INTO MS/AL/GA...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO NRN PARTS OF AL/GA AND PERHAPS AS FAR E AS
WRN SC FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HERE...REINTENSIFICATION OF A
SWLY LLJ WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO ABOVE-MENTIONED...SECONDARY
VORTICITY MAXIMUM RESULTING IN NOTABLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
/I.E. 0-1 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 30-35 KT/. SHOULD FUTURE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIMILAR
THREAT...A MODERATE RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT DAY ONE
OUTLOOKS.

PRE-FRONTAL CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND PIEDMONT...
EVENTUALLY INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME...A STRONGLY SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WILL
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 04/09/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

[Dave]

Radar screen is full of chasers setting between Tulsa OK & Wichita KS. No activity on the screen yet.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL THROUGH NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091939Z - 092130Z

CORRECTED GRAPHIC PRODUCT

N CNTRL TX IS BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF
IT BEGINS TO APPEAR INITIATION IS IMMINENT...A WW WILL BE NEEDED.

DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OK SWD INTO NW TX JUST WEST OF FORT WORTH
TO NW OF AUSTIN. TOWERING CUMULUS CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED ALONG
CONVERGENT DRYLINE AND HAS BEEN MOST CONCENTRATED FROM W AND SW OF
FORT WORTH TO JUST EAST OF STEPHENVILLE. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ALONG MOIST AXIS. THE 18Z RAOB FROM
FORT WORTH INDICATED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION BASED JUST BELOW
850 MB. GIVEN THAT THE STRONGER DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EWD
ADVANCING UPPER JET WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF THIS
REGION...EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...THE 18Z SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW-MID 80S INDICATES THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...BULK SHEAR AND LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 04/09/2009


ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

[Ed Mahmoud]

First cells have popped in Oklahoma. Almost show time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

One lonely cell trying to break the cap - if it does, could affect Round Rock and Georgetown area

[srainhoutx]

OT FYI: Fires W and NW of Dallas/Ft Worth showing up nicely on radar this afternoon behind the dryline...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[srainhoutx]

One lonely cell trying to break the cap - if it does, could affect Round Rock and Georgetown area

HGX mentioned that it was possible to see some activity form as it appeared the CAP was a bit weaker near KCLL.

[srainhoutx]

First Warning of the afternoon...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT.

* AT 314 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ARKANSAS CITY...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF WINFIELD...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ARKANSAS CITY...ATLANTA...BURDEN...WINFIELD...ROCK...STROTHER FIELD
AIRPORT.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
347 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT.

* AT 347 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MAPLE CITY...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINFIELD...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ATLANTA...BURDEN...CAMBRIDGE...DEXTER...MAPLE CITY.