Dr Klotzbach / Dr. Gray's April Forecast (12/6/2)

[Evil Jeremy]

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/For ... pr2009.pdf

12/6/2, bit lower than I expected from them.

[cycloneye]

They have as the main factors for the downgrade,ENSO and the cooler ssts in the Atlantic.But as always we say here,it only takes one to do all the havoc to an area so lets be prepared always even if it may not be a busy season.

[Evil Jeremy]

True, it only takes one. On an unrelated note, if anyone ever gets the chance to make a movie about a hurricane, "It Only Takes One" would be the perfect title lol.

Anyways, as we know all to well by now, anything can happen in the tropics, so lets wait and see what happens.

[jinftl]

SST around the Cape Verde islands are below normal, the rest of the basin is pretty close to normal...+/- 1 deg. Not seenig a widespread area of sustained below normal sst....but this may be something that emerges closer to the start of the season. Of interest, the areas that are looked to for early season development are generally running above normal.

[Ed Mahmoud]

To be accurate, Klozbach is the lead scientist now on this project, and Gray his semi-retired assistant.

[Ed Mahmoud]

To be accurate, Klozbach is the lead scientist now on this project, and Gray his semi-retired assistant.

That was quick. New thread title is Dr Klotzbach / Dr. Gray's April Forecast (12/6/2)

[Stormcenter]

Overall 2009 has the makings of an average season number wise but as several have posted already it only takes ONE. We deserve less activity after last year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Where is the guess thread? I can't find it. I wanted to check my preliminary guess against the Klotzbach number.

[cycloneye]

Where is the guess thread? I can't find it. I wanted to check my preliminary guess against the Klotzbach number.

You meant the 2009 poll right? Is up at the Announcement section at the top of the Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104788&start=0

[Ed Mahmoud]

Where is the guess thread? I can't find it. I wanted to check my preliminary guess against the Klotzbach number.

You meant the 2009 poll right? Is up at the Announcement section at the top of the Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104788&start=0

Ah, ok

16-Ed Mahmoud=13/7/2 (Preliminary)

I'm close.

[HURAKAN]

I'm close too. 13/7/3. If that's worth anything!!!!

[cycloneye]

I didnt have advanced knowledge of their numbers as I downgraded mines on April 2 to 12/6/2.

[hurricanetrack]

The section I found most interesting at this point was the one regarding the weaker than normal Azores High for March. Dr. K mentions that they will be keeping a close eye on that element of their forecast parameters in the coming weeks. What is really nice about this is that we can all watch along as well. There is no smoke and mirrors to this. It is pure science from what I do understand. Therefore, we can all watch as things evolve and by us watching, we are engaged and connected with the weather- meaning we will certainly be ready for what ever might come our way. This will be very interesting to watch.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I didnt have advanced knowledge of their numbers as I downgraded mines on April 2 to 12/6/2.

I think having their numbers is like having your house at the center of the Day 5 cone. Odds are you're going to be a little off.

[jinftl]

Overall # of total storms making landfall is really what will detethe 12/6/2 could equate to very different seasons if of that total, 2/0/0 make landfall somewhere vs. 8/4/2 making landfall.

[OuterBanker]

This is good news. Any time the hurricane season is downplayed it is good for those of us in tourist areas. Because of the economy rentals are down (mostly people holding out for bargains). The last thing we needed was for a doom and gloom pre season forecast. BTW, JB stated that he also thought it would be a low number year (a month ago).

With this forecast we can pretty well count on the news organizations ignoring the season. And I know that too can be as dangerous as over hyping. But it is very good for tourism. Which is our livelihood.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters makes an interesting analysis of both the Colorado team and Tropical Storm Risk April forecasts.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1207

[Javlin]

Dr Jeff Masters makes an interesting analysis of both the Colorado team and Tropical Storm Risk April forecasts.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1207

Quite a difference in opinion in some regards there Luis esp about the trade winds.I would gather then that TSR is relying on neutral or El Nino scenario(and it might be in there I read it really quick )

[cycloneye]

In my view,the May forecasts from the experts including the NOAA one will be more conclusive to what may occur as there will be plenty of more data to look at.

Link to the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season S2K Forecast Numbers poll.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104788&start=0

[OuterBanker]

I guess an example of the accuracy of the Apr forecast would be like the CBS commentators of last night's game. Both had Michigan State winning.

The Aug forecast would be like calling the game at halftime