Severe Weather - March 25-28 - Mid/Deep South/OH Riv Valley

[Bunkertor]

WFUS52 KTAE 271308
TORTAE
FLC005-013-063-133-271345-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0019.090327T1308Z-090327T1345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
808 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT

* AT 804 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COUNTRY OAKS...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF VERNON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
COMPASS LAKE...ROUND LAKE AND BETTS BY 815 AM CDT...
SIMSVILLE...ROCK CREEK...OAKDALE AND SINK CREEK BY 830 AM CDT...
ALLIANCE BY 835 AM CDT...

[KWT]

000
WUUS52 KTAE 271340
SVRTAE
FLC039-063-GAC087-253-271430-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0064.090327T1340Z-090327T1430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
840 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GADSDEN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MARIANNA...
WESTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
SOUTHERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT/1030 AM EDT/

* AT 836 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARIANNA...
AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTH OF CHATTAHOOCHEE BY 1000 AM EDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING/NOON EDT FRIDAY/ FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3063 8465 3060 8500 3061 8516 3059 8517
3058 8523 3079 8529 3091 8495 3107 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 1340Z 252DEG 41KT 3072 8513

$$

38-GODSEY

[Ed Mahmoud]

New SWODY1 update has North Louisiana hatched for hail and tornadoes, and a MODERATE RISK.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN
AR...CENTRAL MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SRN PLAINS ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS CO/NRN NM EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE ELY BY LATE TODAY AS 100+ KT
MID LEVEL JET BEGINS TO ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW NOW DEEPENING OVER NWRN TX WILL LIKEWISE DEVELOP ENEWD
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION BY THE EARLY EVENING AND INTO THE MID
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. COMPLEX WARM SECTOR IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
INTENSE SPRING-TIME SYSTEM DUE TO EXTENSIVE CONVECTION THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. RICHEST GULF MOISTURE IS BEING CONTAINED SOUTH
OF THIS FEATURE EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER AS PRESSURE FALLS
INCREASE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUAL
RECOVERY/NWD ADVECTION OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN TX/WRN-CENTRAL LA. AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ERODES...EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED MORE
W-E FROM NERN TX ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/SERN MS. GIVEN
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ALREADY IN PLACE AS EVIDENCED BY 12Z
SOUNDINGS AND AT LEAST MODEST HEATING...AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY REACHING NWWD INTO PORTIONS OF OK/AR.

/EARLY DAY THREATS/
REFERENCE LATEST SWOMCD AND/OR WATCHES FOR THESE AREAS.

ONGOING...LONG-LIVED LINEAR MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT
INGESTS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR OVER NRN FL/GA. ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THIS LINE MAY REMAIN INTENSE THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG
THE FL PANHANDLE COAST INTO THE NERN GOM. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AND/OR WIND DAMAGE MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY NEAR THE
COAST.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY NEAR SVR LEVELS OVER WRN/CENTRAL OK
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON
ACROSS MORE OF OK/NRN TX. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY
ELEVATED...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODEST
MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL.

/MID-LATE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
MODELS ARE IN ALMOST COMPLETE AGREEMENT IN GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONT OVER ERN TX BETWEEN 18-21Z. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SURFACE-BASED AND DEVELOP WITHIN MODERATE MLCAPE
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF LA/SRN AR
THROUGH THE EVENING...OVERSPREADING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DESPITE GENERAL BACKING OF
MID LEVEL FLOW IN TIME TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION AS DEEP/CLOSED LOW
PROGRESSES EWD. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INTENSIFY LATE
TODAY/THIS EVENING ALONG AXIS OF STRENGTHENING LLJ.

CONVECTIVE-MODE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS COMPETING INFLUENCES
OF INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DOWNSHEAR COMPONENT OF
STORM-RELATIVE WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS...WHILE
FAST MOTION OF N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT MAY INHIBIT STORMS FROM
MOVING OFF INITIATING BOUNDARY. THIS COULD FORCE A LARGE QLCS WITH
EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELLS QUICKLY EWD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG/. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED INVOF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT/LOW CENTER...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECEEDING DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN BROAD WARM SECTOR WOULD LIKELY REMAIN DISCRETE WITH ATTENDANT
TORNADO THREAT. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL OVER
A LARGE PART OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGEST HAIL /POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ EXPECTED AS INITIAL SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP OVER ERN TX/WRN LA IN STRONGEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..EVANS/GARNER.. 03/27/2009

[KWT]

000
WUUS52 KTAE 271400
SVRTAE
FLC013-037-045-077-271445-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0065.090327T1400Z-090327T1445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF APALACHICOLA...
SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTH CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PORT ST. JOE...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EDT/945 AM CDT/

* AT 855 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 36 MILES NORTH OF PORT ST. JOE TO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PORT ST. JOE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PORT ST. JOE BY 1015 AM EDT...
APALACHICOLA BY 1045 AM EDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY/1100 AM CDT
FRIDAY MORNING/ FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 2968 8521 2969 8531 2967 8536 2980 8542
2988 8540 2973 8538 2970 8534 2971 8532
2982 8531 2993 8539 3010 8539 3035 8526
3034 8471 2974 8494 2970 8502 2970 8517
2969 8508 2963 8508 2962 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1359Z 262DEG 38KT 3034 8520 2970 8553

$$

38-GODSEY

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not sure there is much South of Port Sulphur to damage anymore...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
917 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 915 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
BOOTHVILLE...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH AT 930 AM CDT

THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

[Texas Snowman]

From Fort Worth NWS...

-----
1004 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

.UPDATE...
EXTRAORDINARILY POWERFUL SPRING TIME UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NEW MEXICO
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS IS COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL FEATURES EVOLVING QUICKLY WITH
DEGREE OF DYNAMIC MOTIONS TAKING PLACE. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
INTEREST IS THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR BROWNWOOD...
WHICH IS POISED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
DRAPED OVER THE METROPLEX AND INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE --SPECIFICALLY THE RUC-- IS 3-6 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST. RUC USUALLY DOES WELL
WITH MASS FIELDS IN DYNAMIC SITUATIONS AND THEREFORE THE MODEL IS
TRUSTED TODAY. RUC PAINTS A SCENARIO WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK OVER THE METROPLEX AND INTO THE PARIS REGION. INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE WITH WEAK DIURNAL HEATING...BUT THE CAP WILL ERODE
AS STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WE EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ALONG
OR JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EAST OF 35
BY MID AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. [color=#400000]COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. 0-3KM CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
MARGINAL...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM ATHENS TO GAINESVILLE WILL BECOME VERY STRONG. THIS SHEAR
COMBINED WITH LOW LCLS/WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS DISCRETE CELLS
WILL HAVE A HIGH POTENTIAL OF BECOMING TORNADIC IN THIS REGION.

UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING POPS BACK TO THE WEST A COUPLE ROWS OF
COUNTIES DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WHERE BEST MIXING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SNOW FORECAST ALONG THE
RED RIVER...STILL EXPECTING JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL ADDRESS
THIS ISSUE AND POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPS MORE CLOSELY WITH
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

-----

Looks like another round of severe storms and possibly tornadic storms is setting up again.

Already did one round in the storm closet last night, guess I had better make it comfy for the family in case things get rough again.

Tx Snowman

[Bunkertor]

Unfortunately a friend of mine will relocate tomorrow by 11 z and i have to help him. Damnit.

@ + Fresh Coffee is stocked

[somethingfunny]

From Fort Worth NWS...

WE EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ALONG
OR JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EAST OF 35
BY MID AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. 0-3KM CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
MARGINAL...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM ATHENS TO GAINESVILLE WILL BECOME VERY STRONG. THIS SHEAR
COMBINED WITH LOW LCLS/WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS DISCRETE CELLS
WILL HAVE A HIGH POTENTIAL OF BECOMING TORNADIC IN THIS REGION.
-----

Tx Snowman

I saw that as well.....

Bring on round two tomorrow!

Meh.

[Texas Snowman]

From Fort Worth NWS...

WE EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ALONG
OR JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EAST OF 35
BY MID AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. 0-3KM CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
MARGINAL...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM ATHENS TO GAINESVILLE WILL BECOME VERY STRONG. THIS SHEAR
COMBINED WITH LOW LCLS/WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS DISCRETE CELLS
WILL HAVE A HIGH POTENTIAL OF BECOMING TORNADIC IN THIS REGION.
-----

Tx Snowman

I saw that as well.....

Bring on round two tomorrow!

Meh.

Let's hope round two is just more beneficial rain so you can work and the roofers and insurance adjusters in our area aren't any more busy tomorrow than they undoubtedly are today.

Severe weather, tornadoes, big hail, etc. - it's all a part of my weather fascination.

But I never look at it as fun because someone is always underneath all of that weather getting pounded and or blow away.

Sitting in a closet last night with my wife and kids reminded me of that.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT NOON CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOMERVILLE... MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SNOOK AND SOMERVILLE.

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 77
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 76...

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF INITIALLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL TX APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING INTO SURFACE-BASED STORMS AS THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE ACROSS SE TX. THIS STORM CLUSTER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT MOVING EWD IN ADVANCE
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER W TX...WHILE A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LIFTING NWD ACROSS SE TX/SW LA WILL PROVIDE A CORRIDOR FOR THE
STORMS TO TRAVEL EWD. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED
BOWS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...THOMPSON

[Dave]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well guys- I haven't had ANY rounds just yet...but am forecasted
to get my one and only round in the next 36 hours- tomorrow night...
Right now it is really windy...if this were August or September
you would think there was a tropical storm just off the FL coast...
many beaches are reporting wind gusts close to tropical storm force

In any case..there is a line of rain 100 miles west of Tampa Bay and the
west coast, it is only light rain but I am really hoping the day time
heating and very strong low level winds along with high humidity
and heat (temperatures approaching 90 in interior Florida) could fuel
some summer-like thunderstorms today along sea breeze boundaries-
north florida is getting all the rain right now...just want some rain showers
to move into Tampa Bay today- what do you all severe weather monitors
think about today concerning that line of right now light showers offshore?
Do you think there is enough instability for heavy rain- because parts
of the line are drying up...even despite daytime heat and high humidity

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...FAR SRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 76...

VALID 271711Z - 271815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 76 CONTINUES.

LONG-LIVED QLCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES E OF THE
BIG BEND IN NRN FL AND ACROSS FAR SERN GA. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 76.

AS OF 1705Z...RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTED THE LEADING EDGE OF
WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS STRETCHED FROM COOK COUNTY GA INTO TAYLOR COUNTY
FL...WITH A GENERAL ELY MOTION OF 35 KTS. THE NRN EXTENT OF MORE
INTENSE REFLECTIVITIES HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...ALONG WITH IR CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND CG LIGHTNING FREQUENCY
WANING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE GIVEN LESS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
DOWNSTREAM /PER 12Z RAOBS/. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE SLOWLY
RISEN TO NEAR 60 F...MODIFIED RAOB/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MLCAPES SHOULD REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
70S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE QLCS AMIDST
MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS.. 03/27/2009

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1218 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HILL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NAVARRO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1217 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. ANOTHER
SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF HUBBARD ALSO NOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BYNUM BY 1225 PM
HUBBARD BY 1230 PM
DAWSON BY 1235 PM
BLOOMING GROVE BY 1255 PM
BARRY BY 100 PM
ANGUS BY 105 PM

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Finally getting closer to Central Florida!!! Please come down to Tampa!! So close- Starting
April 3rd we have the worst water restrictions in Tampa Bay History unless it pours

[yzerfan]

Light storm damage reported in the FL Panhandle:

http://www.nwfdailynews.com/news/county ... sther.html

Severe storms swept through Northwest Florida Friday morning, leaving downed trees in north Walton County, damaging homes in north Santa Rosa County and knocking down a carport in Mary Esther.

Seven homes were damaged in Chumuckla by a tornado or straight line winds, according to a Santa Rosa County press release.

In Walton County, trees were knocked down along Interstate 10 around 7 a.m., which forced the closure of one lane until they could be cleared.

[Dave]

Long range radar shot out of Tampa at 1:35 PM EDT

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SWRN AR...NWRN LA...SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271733Z - 271830Z

LARGE SCALE FORCING IS BEGINNING TO NUDGE MAIN SFC FRONT EAST ACROSS
NCNTRL TX WITH SFC LOW EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER
INTO SERN OK BY EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS A BIT MEAGER
ATTM...IT APPEARS CONTINUED MOISTENING WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF NERN TX INTO SERN OK/SWRN AR AND NWRN LA AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW SERN TX TSTM
COMPLEX WILL INFLUENCE THIS REGION...PRIMARILY BY DISRUPTING
MOISTURE RETURN AND POSSIBLY LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY. EVEN SO
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED.
STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
AND DESPITE LIMITED BUOYANCY A FEW TORNADOES MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.

..DARROW.. 03/27/2009

[brunota2003]

where did you get the layer for GR with the convective outlooks?