Severe Weather - March 25-28 - Mid/Deep South/OH Riv Valley

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Bunkertor
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#21 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:13 am

Crazy sounds omnious 8-)
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Re:

#22 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:20 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Friday, on the other hand, could make today look like nothing. I expect a MDT on the first Day 2 tomorrow, and it could very well be a HIGH in the end. It could definitely be a major tornado outbreak.


I agree CrazyC83. Models have "under estimated" the strength of this setup and I have felt that this system would need to be watched closely for the past several days due to the large area that could be effected. We shall see.
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#23 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:25 am

Of course, there are always short-term variables as well, such as cloud cover and initiation (I remember April 10 last year was forecast to be a huge, huge outbreak and then parameters faded overnight due to increased cloud cover as an overnight MCS slowed down and didn't clear the area until early afternoon).
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Re:

#24 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:27 am

KWT wrote:Crazy, I think it could well end up on the cusp on a high risk though we've seen even them go bust nearly totally before, I remember one last year for example.


You mean the 5000 J/kg day when the forcaster, don´t remember his name, took the plane to Lousiana to have a Magarita ? :lol:
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Re: Severe Weather - March 25-27 - Mid/Deep South

#25 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 25, 2009 10:37 am

And so it begins...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1028 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CALLAHAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN COLEMAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 1027 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES EAST OF
SILVER VALLEY...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLEMAN...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
BURKETT BY 1055 AM CDT...
CROSS CUT AND CROSS PLAINS BY 1100 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
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Re: Severe Weather - March 25-27 - Mid/Deep South

#26 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:05 am

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251555Z - 251700Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS CENTRAL TX AS ELEVATED
STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE. WW WILL EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED S TO THE
TX GULF COAST/S TX...WITH ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW N OF THIS FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. ELEVATED STORMS -- BASED INVOF H8 TO H85 -- HAVE
BEGUN TO INCREASE FROM ROUGHLY SJT TO ABI...ATOP A DRY/STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING CO/NM/NRN MEXICO ATTM. WITH
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL ROTATION...DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS
THIS REGION WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

WITH TIME...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
FEATURE TO INCREASE/SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX...WITH AN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME NWD RETREAT OF THE SURFACE FRONT WITH TIME.
AS THIS OCCURS...INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES NWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY/ERN TX WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT. IN THE MEAN TIME...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO COVER THE MORE
IMMEDIATE/INCREASING HAIL THREAT WITH THE ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
NOW OCCURRING OVER W CENTRAL TX.

..GOSS.. 03/25/2009


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
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Re: Severe Weather - March 25-27 - Mid/Deep South

#27 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:42 am

SPC AC 251626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX
EWD TO MS/AL...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...THE
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOOSE PHASING
OF AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM WITH A SUBTROPICAL SPEED
MAX EJECTING EWD FROM NRN MEXICO TO CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT JUST S OF I-10 IN TX/LA WILL STALL AND BEGIN
TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY. A WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
E TX...IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING SPEED MAXIMA AND PERHAPS FEEDBACK
FROM WIDESPREAD/INTENSE CONVECTION. THE WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

...TX/LA TODAY INTO MS/AL TONIGHT...
12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM S TX INTO SRN
LA...AND A PLUME OF 7-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER S AND W TX.
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR N OF THE SURFACE FRONT TODAY
OVER CENTRAL/E TX...WHERE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD ALONG AND N OF THE
FRONT. THE ELEVATED STORMS N OF THE FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND EVEN SOME DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN RELATIVELY
LARGE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE SHALLOW/COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER S
ALONG THE FRONT...SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEED
OF 68-70 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE S...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE HEATING WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS WILL SUPPORT
MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG FROM S CENTRAL INTO SE TX THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS DEPICT A RELATIVELY QUICK NWD RETREAT OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS TX/LA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WHILE CLOUD COVER AND LATER DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE PATH OF THE SURFACE WAVE GIVEN
ROUGHLY 30 KT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS. STILL...THE BOUNDARY LOCATION...ALONG WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONSE AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...CONTRIBUTE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE EXPECTED CORRIDOR OF
GREATER SEVERE STORM/TORNADO THREAT. THE AREA FROM E TX ACROSS
LA/MS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
TORNADO THREAT IN LATER UPDATES...THOUGH A SLIGHT RISK STILL APPEARS
APPROPRIATE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS.


..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/25/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1641Z (12:41PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:43 am

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 62
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF CORSICANA
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND N TX OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
SURFACE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
WITH 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL WSWLYS ATOP VEERING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH -- GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNDRAFT
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING...PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...GOSS
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#29 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:44 am

TORNADO WARNING
MSC023-251715-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0012.090325T1636Z-090325T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1136 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF QUITMAN...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1136 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DE SOTO...
OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF QUITMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CRANDALL AND SYKES BY 1145 AM CDT...
9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SNELL BY NOON CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3223 8844 3194 8847 3186 8870 3202 8879
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 243DEG 30KT 3198 8865

$$


7
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#30 Postby RL3AO » Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:30 pm

Very interesting wording for day 3.
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#31 Postby RL3AO » Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:49 pm

Jackson, MS sounding for Friday evening.

Image
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#32 Postby KWT » Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:50 pm

Occ.front making slow progress northwards with the higher dew points also taking time to work northwards, still some severe storms already kicking off in the main risk zone:

000
WUUS54 KSJT 251735
SVRSJT
TXC095-451-251815-
/O.NEW.KSJT.SV.W.0008.090325T1735Z-090325T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN TOM GREEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
CONCHO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1234 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WALL...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
VANCOURT BY 1240 PM CDT...
MERETA BY 1245 PM CDT...
EOLA BY 1250 PM CDT...
PAINT ROCK BY 110 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3121 10039 3158 10027 3157 9970 3117 9969
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 261DEG 32KT 3133 10025

$$
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Re: Severe Weather - March 25-27 - Mid/Deep South

#33 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:04 pm

Tornado Watch coming soon...

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY REGION EWD INTO
SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251751Z - 251945Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION EWD INTO SERN TX
THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED -- OR EVEN BEGUN A SLOW
RETREAT -- ACROSS S TX PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S INVOF THE FRONT. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...AND A SECOND/SUBTLE
SUBTROPICAL FEATURE NOW NEARING THE BIG BEND APPEARS TO BE PHASING
WITH THE MORE NRN FEATURE. IN RESPONSE...A SLOW INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SLYS -- AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/ASCENT -- WILL
CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX.

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EROSION IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
OVER S TX AND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH
A SLOW NWD-SHIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION -- EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FROM
THE DRT TO SJT REGION -- WHERE CU FIELD IS INCREASING JUST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELD WILL BE
INCREASINGLY-SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. WHILE MUCH OF THE
STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WHILE FORECAST ENELY STORM MOTION SHOULD CARRY ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE FRONT/ATOP THE
SHALLOW COOL SURFACE AIRMASS...WARMING/MOISTENING WITH TIME N OF THE
FRONT SUGGESTS THAT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST N OF THE
FRONT DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED NATURE OF ANY STORMS RESIDING
JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INVOF THIS BOUNDARY TO WARRANT TORNADO
WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 03/25/2009


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
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Re: Severe Weather - March 25-27 - Mid/Deep South

#34 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:09 pm

Synoptics for the next 4 days:

Today/tonight
EHI - Peaking around 4.50 this evening in Texas.
CAPE - Generally 1,250-2,000 with a Texas peak.
LI - Peaking around -7 on the dryline.
Dewpoints - Mid to upper 60s
Helicity - Isolated peaks near 550.

Thursday
EHI - Peaking around 2.00 in the greatest threat area.
CAPE - Widely variable but generally 1,000-1,500 in the greatest threat area.
LI - Generally -2 to -4 in the greatest threat area.
Dewpoints - Low to mid-60s
Helicity - Generally in the 200-300 range.
NOTE: Values are MUCH higher in the Red River valley, but the SPC has not really mentioned that area - capping?

Friday
EHI - Peaking near 5.50 in the Mississippi Delta region.
CAPE - Peaking OVER 4,000 in Louisiana!!!
LI - Peaking near -10 in Louisiana
Dewpoints - Mid-60s to low 70s
Helicity - Generally in the 200-300 range.

Saturday
EHI - Isolated peaks near 2.00 in Alabama.
CAPE - Generally under 1,000 in the late afternoon.
LI - Generally in the -3 to -5 range.
Dewpoints - Low to mid-60s
Helicity - Peaking around 600 in Georgia.
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#35 Postby KWT » Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:25 pm

Today and Friday looks like being good days, hopefully Thursday isn't too active as sometimes the cloud cover left over from MCS can dampen severe episodes. Friday does look like being a pretty big day though, whilst they likely will stay mod there is a chance they will upgrade it to a high risk threat.

000
WUUS54 KFWD 251818
SVRFWD
TXC367-251915-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0047.090325T1818Z-090325T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
118 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 118 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF COOL...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WEATHERFORD BY 140 PM
HUDSON OAKS AND ANNETTA BY 145 PM
WILLOW PARK AND ALEDO BY 150 PM
SPRINGTOWN BY 155 PM
RENO BY 200 PM
BRIAR BY 205 PM

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3267 9805 3290 9806 3300 9756 3300 9753
3299 9753 3299 9754 3287 9754 3256 9755
3256 9806 3267 9806
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 253DEG 36KT 3267 9801

$$
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#36 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Mar 25, 2009 2:11 pm

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 63
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

TORNADO WATCH 63 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-019-021-029-031-041-051-053-055-091-137-149-171-177-185-
187-209-225-259-265-267-271-287-289-299-313-319-325-331-339-373-
385-395-407-435-453-455-463-465-471-477-491-260200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0063.090325T1905Z-090326T0200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BANDERA BASTROP
BEXAR BLANCO BRAZOS
BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL
COMAL EDWARDS FAYETTE
GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES
GUADALUPE HAYS HOUSTON
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
KINNEY LEE LEON
LLANO MADISON MASON
MEDINA MILAM MONTGOMERY
POLK REAL ROBERTSON
SAN JACINTO SUTTON TRAVIS
TRINITY UVALDE VAL VERDE
WALKER WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
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#37 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 25, 2009 2:13 pm

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 63
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF DEL RIO
TEXAS TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 62...

DISCUSSION...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN DRT AND SJT.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS EWD FROM THE BIG
BEND...AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS S CENTRAL
AND SE TX. MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 1500 J/KG/ AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL/SE TX IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...THUS
SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.


...THOMPSON
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srainhoutx
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Re:

#38 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 25, 2009 2:16 pm

Bunkertor wrote:TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 63
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

TORNADO WATCH 63 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-019-021-029-031-041-051-053-055-091-137-149-171-177-185-
187-209-225-259-265-267-271-287-289-299-313-319-325-331-339-373-
385-395-407-435-453-455-463-465-471-477-491-260200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0063.090325T1905Z-090326T0200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BANDERA BASTROP
BEXAR BLANCO BRAZOS
BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL
COMAL EDWARDS FAYETTE
GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES
GUADALUPE HAYS HOUSTON
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
KINNEY LEE LEON
LLANO MADISON MASON
MEDINA MILAM MONTGOMERY
POLK REAL ROBERTSON
SAN JACINTO SUTTON TRAVIS
TRINITY UVALDE VAL VERDE
WALKER WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON


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CrazyC83
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Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: Severe Weather - March 25-27 - Mid/Deep South

#39 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 25, 2009 2:52 pm

SPC AC 251944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX THRU THE CNTRL GULF STATES....

...TEXAS THRU THE GULF STATES...
STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED
UPPER JET STREAKS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT A BROAD LOW/MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR AN EVOLVING STORM CLUSTER...IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG...AND
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE BEGINNING TO ENLARGE
ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.

TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH
OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...NOW CURVING FROM A WEAKENING STORM CLUSTER
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN THE LOWER AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...A DRAMATIC RETREAT OF THE BOUNDARY
STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT...THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND SOME ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE FORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. FORCING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...JUST
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

EVEN AS UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH OCCURS THIS EVENING...A FOCUSED
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND COULD INCREASE...NEAR
THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHERLY
850 MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 50 KTS. OTHERWISE...THE RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE PROMINENT THAN
HAIL...AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

..KERR.. 03/25/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009/

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...THE
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOOSE PHASING
OF AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM WITH A SUBTROPICAL SPEED
MAX EJECTING EWD FROM NRN MEXICO TO CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT JUST S OF I-10 IN TX/LA WILL STALL AND BEGIN
TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY. A WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
E TX...IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING SPEED MAXIMA AND PERHAPS FEEDBACK
FROM WIDESPREAD/INTENSE CONVECTION. THE WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

...TX/LA TODAY INTO MS/AL TONIGHT...
12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM S TX INTO SRN
LA...AND A PLUME OF 7-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER S AND W TX.
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR N OF THE SURFACE FRONT TODAY
OVER CENTRAL/E TX...WHERE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD ALONG AND N OF THE
FRONT. THE ELEVATED STORMS N OF THE FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND EVEN SOME DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN RELATIVELY
LARGE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE SHALLOW/COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER S
ALONG THE FRONT...SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEED
OF 68-70 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE S...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE HEATING WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS WILL SUPPORT
MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG FROM S CENTRAL INTO SE TX THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS DEPICT A RELATIVELY QUICK NWD RETREAT OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS TX/LA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WHILE CLOUD COVER AND LATER DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE PATH OF THE SURFACE WAVE GIVEN
ROUGHLY 30 KT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS. STILL...THE BOUNDARY LOCATION...ALONG WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONSE AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...CONTRIBUTE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE EXPECTED CORRIDOR OF
GREATER SEVERE STORM/TORNADO THREAT. THE AREA FROM E TX ACROSS
LA/MS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
TORNADO THREAT IN LATER UPDATES...THOUGH A SLIGHT RISK STILL APPEARS
APPROPRIATE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1951Z (3:51PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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RL3AO
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Location: NC

#40 Postby RL3AO » Wed Mar 25, 2009 3:50 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
349 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MASON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 348 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF
LOYAL VALLEY...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MASON...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
LOYAL VALLEY BY 405 PM CDT...
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