Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[Extremeweatherguy]

So nothing again for Dallas? Ugh it's so hard to be happy for you EWG :[

I know. I'm sorry. I wish I could send the heavy stuff down to Dallas too. There is some glimmer of hope though that you guys (especially the north side of town) might get some flurries or a light rain/snow mix if the 00z GFS plays out...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[iorange55]

So nothing again for Dallas? Ugh it's so hard to be happy for you EWG :[

I know. I'm sorry. I wish I could send the heavy stuff down to Dallas too. There is some glimmer of hope though that you guys (especially the north side of town) might get some flurries or a light rain/snow mix if the 00z GFS plays out...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

Something is better than nothing I guess. I'll just go back to my favorite quote "It could happen"

[msstateguy83]

the way this appears to me the oun has put out some amounts on a graphic on there website but it
appears the situation is still fluid to me, depending on where the low goes and how far south is everything.
rightnow last i saw it appeared it would track very near me (wichita falls,tx) area and the heavyer snow will
be just to my north. although i wouldnt be surprized with it going a bit further south. either way you go
someone is going to get some very impressive snowfall amounts between 12-16 inches some indications
of over 20 inches!! currious anyone elses thoughts on this system, chime in if you dont mind its really
caught my eye the past couple days, it appears attm atleast that its going to pan out to the only question is for sure on amounts and where, be nice to see a big snow here, just before we get locked into spring for sure.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is looking to be a big ticket event for NW Oklahoma. I am thinking about possibly driving up toward Watonga or Woodward on Friday to try and get into the thick of the near-blizzard to blizzard conditions that are expected in that region. I haven't seen snow to the magnitude they are expecting up there since I lived in Raleigh back during the "Carolina Crusher" of January 2000.

[msstateguy83]

same here, if things dont change, myself & the girlfriend might head up for nw ok for a little weekend outing
see something you dont get to see to often in these parts of the country for sure! iam still hoping & praying for
a turn south though =)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Impressive...



3-6" in OKC with drifts over 1 foot!

6-12" in NW Oklahoma with drifts over 2 feet!

[iorange55]

Wow if only I could make it into oklahoma this weekend. Dang hopefully something changes where the 2 inches or less makes it down here. I'll be happy with 2 inches.

[wall_cloud]

I'll take pictures. Personally, I'd rather not be in the Panhandle the next few days. This is what makes me miss the palm trees of Corpus Christi.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll take pictures. Personally, I'd rather not be in the Panhandle the next few days. This is what makes me miss the palm trees of Corpus Christi.

Blizzard Watch. Issue that yourself?
How exciting.


Not exactly winter, but I did see very tiny hail tonight, not even pea size.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting Update from Norman, OK concerning Major Snow/Blizzard Event ...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

.UPDATE...
REMAINING LOW POPS ACROSS N OK AND SE OK HAVE BEEN REMOVED. SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM CO/NM LATER TONIGHT BUT STILL THINK
MOSTLY CLEAR WILL WORK.

WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS EVENING TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH. 00Z NAM IS JUST ARRIVING. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS POTENTIAL
TO BE A PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AND DISRUPTIVE HEAVY SNOW EVENT
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. NAM
AND GFS HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR GUNS WITH RUN-TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN THE RANGE OF 20+ INCHES IN PARTS OF NW OK AND ADJACENT KS/TX -
WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR MUCH LESS THE
FIRST WEEK OF SPRING. 00Z NAM HAS DOUBLE-DIGIT TOTALS INTO EXTREME
NW OK BY MID-EVENING FRIDAY... 15-20 INCHES INTO HARPER COUNTY BY
09Z SAT... AND AGAIN DUMPS AN EXTRAORDINARY 30+ INCHES IN SW KS.
THIS RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LEADING TO
INCREASING CONCERN THAT THIS SNOW EVENT WILL BE ONE FOR THE
AGES... AND THAT WE NEED TO RAMP IT UP FURTHER WITH WHAT AMOUNTS
TO A "PDS" WINTER STORM WATCH. UPDATED WSW WILL TREND THAT WAY
AND SHOULD BE OUT BY 10 PM. STRONG WINDS AND RELATED BLOWING/DRIFTING
EASILY COULD MAKE THIS ONE OF THE MOST CRIPPLING S-PLAINS
SNOWSTORMS IN RECENT HISTORY... ALTHOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE UNLIKELY TO ATTAIN BLIZZARD CRITERIA. ALL
USERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION SERIOUSLY AND
PREPARE AS WELL AS POSSIBLE FOR WHAT MAY END UP BEING ESSENTIALLY
AN UNPRECEDENTED LATE-SEASON HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN NW OK. 24

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, that was an absolutely insane AFD from Norman this evening. They seem to be becoming very concerned about this upcoming event.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a look at the 00z GFS and 00z NAM runs...

00z NAM approx. total snowfall amounts
Dodge City, KS = 35 to 37 inches (wow!)
Woodward, OK = 18 to 20 inches
Watonga, OK = 9 to 11 inches
Oklahoma City, OK = 4 to 6 inches
Norman, OK = 3 to 5 inches
Ada, OK = Dusting to 1 inch

00z GFS approx. total snowfall amounts
Dodge City, KS = 15 to 17 inches
Woodward, OK = 12 to 13 inches
Watonga, OK = 8 to 10 inches
Oklahoma City, OK = 3 to 5 inches
Norman, OK = 2 to 4 inches
Ada, OK = Dusting to 1 inch

[Texas Snowman]

Yep, looking like a snowstorm/blizzard for the "ages" if those totals verify.

I'm still holding out hope that if the storm track is a bit farther south, the Red River Valley of N. Texas could get in on the dusting to 1" portion of the storm.

Tx Snowman (hoping for a spring snowstorm miracle!)

[iorange55]

Wow if only the low would come further south. This is going to be pretty amazing, I only wish it was amazing for me. But weirder stuff has happened we could still get something. If not there is always traffic cams and pictures.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[Portastorm]

Oh EWG, that looks awesome! Hope for your sake it verifies ... those of us further south will be living our winter dreams vicariously through you! Enjoy it buddy.

[CrazyC83]

I remember a couple months ago posting about PDS on winter watches - I guess someone at Norman was reading it?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anybody see the liquid equivalents 12Z NAM is predicting for Wichita?


Would almost double their all time one storm snowfall record of 15 inches, although I'd guess that much snow would kind of compress, and almost 30 inches of snow would smoosh down into the low 20s before it could be measured.

[msstateguy83]

this is one heck of an impressive system & in my opinion will likely go down as the or one of the top
heavy snowstorms this region has ever seen! i still am even at this late hour holding out
hope atleast for sw ok, portions of nw tx... simply becouse of a more possible southern track
(all though that is looking less and less likely at this point) but the other being frontal system
timing, such if we can get the front thru abit quicker we might all see a little bit more snow atleast...
time will tell, but if something dont change soon i might be heading nw later today!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z NAM and 12z GFS continue to look very impressive. In fact, the potential snowfall totals for the OKC metro have gone up considerably. Both models are showing a growing likelihood of 6+ inches across this region.