#44 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 9:11 pm
WTPS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (KEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (KEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 25.6S 160.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 160.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.5S 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 32.8S 154.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 159.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH
OF RAROTONGA, HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTION AROUND ITS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED INTENSITY. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A FRONT-LIKE CONVERGENT
LINE HAS FORMED ON THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 21P IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FULLY TRANSITION INTO
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z WAS 12 FEET.
//
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