Accuweather 2009 Forecast

[Evil Jeremy]

13/8/2, with a lot of activity in the NE.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather ... &year=2009

[KWT]

To be honest I can't remember the last time they didn't forecast a big east coast season, maybe I'm being unfair with that and my memory is skewed though?

Reasoning for numbers seems fair enough, though I think its a little low on the majors given there is some uncertainty about evn getting an el nino and if it does form it won't really take hold till the meat of the season is nearly finished.

[HURAKAN]

I hope the Caribbean has an easier year because Cuba can't handle another hurricane.

[wxman57]

I'm wondering what the 4th US hurricane impact last year was. There was Dolly, Gustav and Ike. He's not possibly claiming that the unnamed non-tropical low off the Carolinas counts as a U.S. hurricane impact, is he?

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm wondering what the 4th US hurricane impact last year was. There was Dolly, Gustav and Ike. He's not possibly claiming that the unnamed non-tropical low off the Carolinas counts as a U.S. hurricane impact, is he?

Did Fay make Cane off melbourne? I cant remember..

[HURAKAN]

Did Fay make Cane off melbourne? I cant remember..

No.

[DESTRUCTION5]

LOL..Guess Bastardi is wrong then...not that im surprised...

[wxman57]

I watched the interview and I completely agree with his reasoning. The overall pattern out there is very similar to the late 1940s through the 1950s now. And during that period, Florida northward up the east coast was hammered. They did get lucky that both Hanna and Fay spent so much time over land across the northern Caribbean prior to impact. Could have been major hurricane impacts along the east Coast.

[jasons2k]

Here are some thoughts from Eric Berger's blog (Houston Chronicle) on Joe's forecast:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... _ma_1.html

[hurricanetrack]

This will be an important hurricane season on many levels. If there are a series of bad hurricanes or even one serious one in the right location, how will the nation respond? The economy stinks and we can ill-afford any trouble from the tropics. The notion that perhaps the East Coast would be under more peril this season is cause for some alarm since so many people live there. We'll just have to wait and see I guess. By mid-August, who knows what the pattern will look like? Not too much longer until we begin to find out- at least about the early part of the season.

I just don't know about these types of forecasts though. What does "probably" mean anyway? I could say that Carolina will probably win the NCAA tourney. But what does that mean? What is the probability? Accuweather says in their graphic "probably less activity than last year" when referring to the path through the northern Caribbean and in to the Gulf. I would just like to know what that means exactly? Is there a 30% probability of less activity? 80%? What? It makes it harder to be wrong when you say something like that.

[cycloneye]

Here are some thoughts from Eric Berger's blog (Houston Chronicle) on Joe's forecast:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... _ma_1.html

In case you're wondering what I think: I think pre-season hurricane predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only.

I agree with that last sentence from Eric Berger.

[CrazyC83]

Could we see a 2006-like pattern instead?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Here are some thoughts from Eric Berger's blog (Houston Chronicle) on Joe's forecast:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... _ma_1.html

In case you're wondering what I think: I think pre-season hurricane predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only.

I agree with that last sentence from Eric Berger.

You can predict everything you want but when another Ike enters the WGOM all his theorys and predictions are out the window....Every season is different even if the pattern is similar..

[margiek]

I took a very quick glance and what struck me funny was the statement on the map, "PROBABLY MORE RANDOM ACTIVITY THIS YEAR."

Oh, every year Accuweather does the "danger, danger east coast" thing to get subscriptions, since they're based in PA. And every year they find some convoluted way to claim how terrific last year's prediction was, sans any verification.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm wondering what the 4th US hurricane impact last year was. There was Dolly, Gustav and Ike. He's not possibly claiming that the unnamed non-tropical low off the Carolinas counts as a U.S. hurricane impact, is he?

There was a 4th US impact... Omar at St. Croix

[HURAKAN]

There was a 4th US impact... Omar at St. Croix

Very true. I guess we were thinking mainland.

[cycloneye]

Now lets wait and see if Accuweathers forecast coincides with what the other forecasters (CSU,TSR and NOAA) will do in April and May.

[KWT]

Could we see a 2006-like pattern instead?

Possibly something to watch IF El Nino does develop but I suspect that at least for the first 2/3rds of the season we are going to have a neutral pattern.

FWIW I highly doubt the pattern will set-up like 2006 in terms of pressure, the Azores high was VERY displaced for much of that and the UK got its hottest July and one of the warmest Septembers as a result...

However I do think pressure will be higher overall in the tropics this summer...I suspect overall it'll be a ENSO neutral season unlike Joe's ideas of a El Nino.

Also Joe has got a very good point about the east being lucky, Ernesto could have been a good deal strong if it was further east, Hanna spent time attached to land and could have been stronger as well.

[wxman57]

I'm wondering what the 4th US hurricane impact last year was. There was Dolly, Gustav and Ike. He's not possibly claiming that the unnamed non-tropical low off the Carolinas counts as a U.S. hurricane impact, is he?

There was a 4th US impact... Omar at St. Croix

I don't consider St. Croix or PR the "United States", though Obama did mention the 57 United States in one speech. There are only 50 United States. Besides, Omar didn't make landfall on St. Croix, it missed the island to the east.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm wondering what the 4th US hurricane impact last year was. There was Dolly, Gustav and Ike. He's not possibly claiming that the unnamed non-tropical low off the Carolinas counts as a U.S. hurricane impact, is he?

There was a 4th US impact... Omar at St. Croix

I don't consider St. Croix or PR the "United States", though Obama did mention the 57 United States in one speech. There are only 50 United States. Besides, Omar didn't make landfall on St. Croix, it missed the island to the east.

Yea Maine was closer to Kyle IMO if he wants to talk about US effects...