Are Atlantic Tropical Systems Getting Larger?

[vbhoutex]

Correct, Ike's core was shrinking rapidly Friday evening before landfall. Peak size was reached before sunrise on Friday. By late afternoon Friday, Ike's RMW was shrinking from about 80nm down to about 40-50nm.

If Ike's RMW was still the same size at 80 nm, would the storm surge have been higher?

Late Friday afternoon, it looked like Ike's RMW was aimed right at Port Arthur. This would have put Ike's max surge into Port Arthur rather than High Island. And the surge would have been a little higher than was observed for 2 reasons. First, the larger RMW. Second,the shoaling factor increases east of High Island (shallower water offshore).

And remember folks, Ike's Cat 2 winds were confined to a narrow band east of its center. Ike was nowhere near a good representation of a high-end Cat 2 in terms of wind field organization. And a Cat 1 that could produce the same surge that Ike did. Removing that tiny area of Cat 2 winds wouldn't have diminished the surge appreciably.

Maybe we need to rethink the term "major hurricane".

Couldn't agree with you more!!!! Tell NHC to "git 'er done!!!!"

[Ptarmigan]

Late Friday afternoon, it looked like Ike's RMW was aimed right at Port Arthur. This would have put Ike's max surge into Port Arthur rather than High Island. And the surge would have been a little higher than was observed for 2 reasons. First, the larger RMW. Second,the shoaling factor increases east of High Island (shallower water offshore).

And remember folks, Ike's Cat 2 winds were confined to a narrow band east of its center. Ike was nowhere near a good representation of a high-end Cat 2 in terms of wind field organization. And a Cat 1 that could produce the same surge that Ike did. Removing that tiny area of Cat 2 winds wouldn't have diminished the surge appreciably.

Maybe we need to rethink the term "major hurricane".

Considering the damage that Ike did was really catastrophic and in many ways worse than some major hurricanes, I think we need to rethink the term "major hurricane". Some major hurricanes are small and produce small storm surges, like Charley in 2004 or the Freeport Hurricane of 1932, but had really strong winds.

Gilbert caused a huge scare for us, the biggest prior to Rita. Also, it was the most intense hurricane prior to Wilma. Had Gilbert hit our area in 1988, the damage would of been much worse than Ike and Andrew, and possibly even Katrina.

I remember Chantal and Jerry well. The dirty side of Chantal was on the southwestern quadrant and I remembers lots of rain and wind from this hurricane. Most areas got 8 to 12 inches of rain, while Friendswood got up to 20 inches of rain. I wonder how that happened?

Jerry was small and I don't remember much other than some clouds since Jerry was small, like Humberto. In fact, when Humberto came, I thought of Jerry. I am surprised that Jerry was larger than Chantal though. I thought Chantal was larger.

I notice in your graph that Katrina is one of the more larger hurricanes. It is one of the largest in your graph, only Opal, Ike, and Gilbert are larger. I always thought Carla was large.

[jinftl]

Agree...there really needs to be a change in the perception of even what a cat 1 or 2 can do....there are no weak hurricanes...any community that is subjected to sustained cat 1 winds will bear the scars....not to mention the variability in surge being greater than one would expect.

There is no such thing as 'just a cat 1' or 'just a cat 2'. That's like saying 'just a small bomb' or 'just a small train wreck'. We have to get the word 'just' out of those statements.

Late Friday afternoon, it looked like Ike's RMW was aimed right at Port Arthur. This would have put Ike's max surge into Port Arthur rather than High Island. And the surge would have been a little higher than was observed for 2 reasons. First, the larger RMW. Second,the shoaling factor increases east of High Island (shallower water offshore).

And remember folks, Ike's Cat 2 winds were confined to a narrow band east of its center. Ike was nowhere near a good representation of a high-end Cat 2 in terms of wind field organization. And a Cat 1 that could produce the same surge that Ike did. Removing that tiny area of Cat 2 winds wouldn't have diminished the surge appreciably.

Maybe we need to rethink the term "major hurricane".

Considering the damage that Ike did was really catastrophic and in many ways worse than some major hurricanes, I think we need to rethink the term "major hurricane". Some major hurricanes are small and produce small storm surges, like Charley in 2004 or the Freeport Hurricane of 1932, but had really strong winds.