Tornado outbreak - February 10-11, 8+ dead

#241 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:33 pm

TORNADO ON THE GROUND

Third cell, south of Yukon

#242 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:34 pm

Radar showing ~100 kt rotation on that cell.

#243 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:34 pm

Unconfirmed report

Second cell has a tornado on the ground in Edmond

Bunkertor · #244 Postby **Bunkertor** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:35 pm

PDS should have been appropriate

#245 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:35 pm

The fifth cell - NW of Lawton looks quite impressive...

#246 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:35 pm

Bunkertor wrote:PDS should have been appropriate

Yeah it probably would have verified. But it depends on the actual reports.

#247 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:36 pm

#248 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:38 pm

#249 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:39 pm

Cells 1 and 3 both look really mean and capable of strong tornadoes. Is that a debris ball on Cell 1 in Langston?

Cells 4 and 5 to the southwest are taking shape as well...

Ed Mahmoud · #250 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:42 pm

Tor Watch 10 includes DFW area. Not PDS.

#251 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:42 pm

New watch coming out.

I would personally kill off 8 and put up PDS Tornado Watch 11 right now.

Bunkertor · #252 Postby **Bunkertor** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:42 pm

This event takes place way more north than forcast

#253 Postby **Dave** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:44 pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 340 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF
STEPHENVILLE TEXAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 8...WW 9...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS WW THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF INTENSE UPPER SYSTEM NOW
EJECTING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED LLJ WILL INTENSIFY
AND INCREASE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...MAY EVOLVE FROM PERSISTENT
TSTMS OVER NERN TX THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM.
MORE WIDESPREAD/ LIKELY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING BOW ECHOES...IS EXPECTED DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS WW THROUGH TONIGHT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

#254 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:44 pm

Watch 10 is also very borderline when it comes to going PDS, with 60/50 probs. I'm sure if Jack Hales was working this afternoon we'd have a PDS or two...

#255 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:45 pm

3rd cell near Yukon is looking better on velocity. Tighter couplet in the past few minutes

#256 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:48 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102145Z - 102315Z

STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 008 AND
SWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX TOWARD JCT. WW WILL BE EXTENDED SWD TO
ENCLOSE THIS THREAT.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SURGING EWD ACROSS THE
TRANSPECOS REGION ATTM. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH/OVERTAKE
THE DRYLINE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...INVOF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
ROUGHLY ABI TO SJT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT NEW STORM TO DEVELOP S
OF ONGOING CONVECTION -- WHOSE SRN END EXTENDS INTO AREAS N OF ABI
ATTM. WHILE STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BECOME LINEAR AS STORMS DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THUS -- ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL POTENTIAL...ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE.

..GOSS.. 02/10/2009

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 33369960 33419876 33119800 31869847 30469880 30190040
30810093 32539993 33369960

Bunkertor · #257 Postby **Bunkertor** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:49 pm

what a wall

#258 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:50 pm

What I would do:

Cancel Tornado Watch 8, and put up PDS Tornado Watch 11 for the area now in 8 (also incorporating westernmost parts of 9 and 10)

Introduce two new Tornado Watches 12 and 13 to the north and south

#259 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:50 pm

LSR on the first tornado.

0305 PM TORNADO 3 WSW EDMOND 35.64N 97.53W
02/10/2009 OKLAHOMA OK TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO LASTED APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES. TORNADO WAS
CONFIRMED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. TORNADO APPEARED TO TRAVEL
THROUGH THE NW SIDES OF EDMOND. RECEIVED DAMAGE REPORTS
ON PENNSYLVANIA AVE. BETWEEN 149TH AND 156TH. THIS
INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY AND MORE INFORMATION WILL BE
KNOWN TOMORROW.

Bunkertor · #260 Postby **Bunkertor** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:54 pm

That is what it looks like right now

Tornado outbreak - February 10-11, 8+ dead

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Re: Tornado outbreak? February 10-11, Plains/Midwest/South

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