2009 Farmer's Almanac

[Blown Away]

Predicting a busy 2009 Hurricane Season.

http://www.almanac.com/weather/

[wxman57]

Predicting a busy 2009 Hurricane Season.

http://www.almanac.com/weather/

Can't find the link on that web page.

[Blown Away]

Predicting a busy 2009 Hurricane Season.

http://www.almanac.com/weather/

Can't find the link on that web page.

Open the link and then click on the region to get the info. Nothing to involved just a basic outlook.

[JonathanBelles]

There are already things wrong with it.

For January 2009 for Florida, it says 2" of precip above normal, its been the complete opposite.

"The coldest periods will occur in mid-December and early to mid-January." --This isnt right either.

[wxman57]

For Texas - "Expect a hurricane in late July or early August. " I guess that's the outlook for the season? The almanac reads like your daily horoscope in the paper. It's so vague most of the time that it could apply to any weather pattern.

[cycloneye]

I thought they would have a longer outlook for the hurricane season,instead they only have this when you click Florida:

The hurricane season will be active, with the greatest threats in mid- to late August and early September.

Expect a tropical storm in early October.

[wxman57]

I thought they would have a longer outlook for the hurricane season,instead they only have this when you click Florida:

The hurricane season will be active, with the greatest threats in mid- to late August and early September.

Expect a tropical storm in early October.

Very vague. "Greatest threat" may or may not be an impact, just a threat. Could be from a major hurricane east of the Caribbean that may or may not turn and miss Florida from 7 days out. Some secret forecasting formula.

[wxman57]

I did find their full 2009 outlook, though:

"The 2009 season will be an active one. Fewer storm will form early on in June and July than between mid August and October. But by late August activity will increase, peaking in mid September than trailing off through October. There may be a hurricane threat to the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the southeast U.S., or the open Atlantic sometime between late August and late September, but we're not sure. We'll have to go back and re-run our secret hurricane forecasting formula later."

[george_r_1961]

I did find their full 2009 outlook, though:

"The 2009 season will be an active one. Fewer storm will form early on in June and July than between mid August and October. But by late August activity will increase, peaking in mid September than trailing off through October. There may be a hurricane threat to the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the southeast U.S., or the open Atlantic sometime between late August and late September, but we're not sure. We'll have to go back and re-run our secret hurricane forecasting formula later."

Isnt that like saying it will snow in Montana in the winter??

That "outlook" is very vague.

[hurricanetrack]

Sarcasm. It is vague though. We just need to get our hands on "100 years of hurricane history" published 100 years from now. That would do the trick. We would just have to wrangle it away from Biff.

[Blown Away]

Old Farmers Almanac: Global cooling may be underway

DUBLIN, N.H. — The Old Farmer's Almanac is going further out on a limb than usual this year, not only forecasting a cooler winter, but looking ahead decades to suggest we are in for global cooling, not warming.

Based on the same time-honored, complex calculations it uses to predict weather, the Almanac hits the newsstands on Tuesday saying a study of solar activity and corresponding records on ocean temperatures and climate point to a cooler, not warmer, climate, for perhaps the next half century.

"We at the Almanac are among those who believe that sunspot cycles and their effects on oceans correlate with climate changes," writes meteorologist and climatologist Joseph D'Aleo. "Studying these and other factor suggests that cold, not warm, climate may be our future."

It remains to be seen, said Editor-in-Chief Jud Hale, whether the human impact on global temperatures will cancel out or override any cooling trend.

"We say that if human beings were not contributing to global warming, it would become real cold in the next 50 years," Hale said.
For the near future, the Almanac predicts most of the country will be colder than normal in the coming winter, with heavy snow from the Ozarks into southern New England. Snow also is forecast for northern Texas, with a warmer than usual winter in the northern Plains.

Almanac believers will prepare for a hot summer in much of the nation's midsection, continuing drought conditions there and wild fire conditions in parts of California, with a cooler-than-normal season elsewhere. They'll also keep the car packed for the 2009 hurricane season, as the Alamanac predicts an active one, especially in Florida.

But Editor Janice Stillman said it's the winter foreasts that attract the most attention, especially this year, with much higher heating prices.

So, in line with the weather and economy forecasts, the Almanac includes information on using wood for heat: the best wood, how to build a fire in a fireplace, whether to use a wood stove and how to stay warm — all winter — with a single log.

Here's the secret, popularized in 1777: Throw a log out an upstairs window, dash down the stairs and outside, retrieve the log, dash upstairs, throw the log out the window and so on.

"Do that until you work up a sweat and you'll be warm all winter," said Stillman.

Last year, the Almanac correctly predicted "above-normal" snowfall in the Northeast — an understatement — and below-normal snowfall in the mid-Atlantic states.

New Hampshire, home of the Almanac, saw the most snow in 134 years and missed an all-time record by 2.6 inches.

[margiek]

Jeff Masters has an excellent blog entry on the "cooling" claims:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1187

[RL3AO]

I did find their full 2009 outlook, though:

"The 2009 season will be an active one. Fewer storm will form early on in June and July than between mid August and October. But by late August activity will increase, peaking in mid September than trailing off through October. There may be a hurricane threat to the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the southeast U.S., or the open Atlantic sometime between late August and late September, but we're not sure. We'll have to go back and re-run our secret hurricane forecasting formula later."

Heres my Spring and Summer tornado season forecast. I expect to be paid by anyone who reads this brilliant forecast.

Number of tornadoes will start to increase in the deep south as late-February and March approaches. Threat of tornado outbreaks will increase in April and May for the Southern Plains. A number of severe weather outbreaks are expected in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest starting in June and lasting into July.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I was skimming through a farmer's almanac...it does appear that the almanac
employs some form of astrology- there are numerous astrological symbols and
references to the position of the moon and various space weather
phenomina...I wonder if there is a connection with the astrology "space
weather" and the earth weather

[wxman57]

I was skimming through a farmer's almanac...it does appear that the almanac
employs some form of astrology- there are numerous astrological symbols and
references to the position of the moon and various space weather
phenomena...I wonder if there is a connection with the astrology "space
weather" and the earth weather

A long time ago (back in high school in the 1970s, I think) we were learning about gravitational attraction. Being the curious type, I calculated the gravitational attraction between the various planets and the average baby, since astrologers theorize that the planets have some sort of gravitational effect at birth that can somehow affect our lives. The resulting force was quite small. Then I calculated the gravitational force between the doctor delivering the baby and the baby. I found that the gravitational forces exerted by the various people in the delivery room were far greater than the forces exerted by any planet in our solar system. Kind of suggests a new branch of astrology based upon the mass of your mother's gynecologist at your birth.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB thinks a brief weak El Nin-yo (since ñ doesn't produce an en-ye) will develop this Summer, and start to fade in time for a wild and crazy Winter 2009-2010.


But he hasn't said a thing about hurricane season yet.

[wxman57]

JB thinks a brief weak El Nin-yo (since ñ doesn't produce an en-ye) will develop this Summer, and start to fade in time for a wild and crazy Winter 2009-2010.

But he hasn't said a thing about hurricane season yet.

If the current pattern persists (ridge over Rockies/trof over eastern U.S.), then I'd think that the southeast U.S. and East Coast had better watch out.

[vbhoutex]

I was skimming through a farmer's almanac...it does appear that the almanac
employs some form of astrology- there are numerous astrological symbols and
references to the position of the moon and various space weather
phenomena...I wonder if there is a connection with the astrology "space
weather" and the earth weather

A long time ago (back in high school in the 1970s, I think) we were learning about gravitational attraction. Being the curious type, I calculated the gravitational attraction between the various planets and the average baby, since astrologers theorize that the planets have some sort of gravitational effect at birth that can somehow affect our lives. The resulting force was quite small. Then I calculated the gravitational force between the doctor delivering the baby and the baby. I found that the gravitational forces exerted by the various people in the delivery room were far greater than the forces exerted by any planet in our solar system. Kind of suggests a new branch of astrology based upon the mass of your mother's gynecologist at your birth.

ROFLMBO!!!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

JB thinks a brief weak El Nin-yo (since ñ doesn't produce an en-ye) will develop this Summer, and start to fade in time for a wild and crazy Winter 2009-2010.

But he hasn't said a thing about hurricane season yet.

If the current pattern persists (ridge over Rockies/trof over eastern U.S.), then I'd think that the southeast U.S. and East Coast had better watch out.

I'll have my camera ready for tropical action this season...hopefully I can get some good footage
close to home...nothing too strong...but the eye of a strong tropical storm or low end
category 1, though certainly capable of damage...would be excellent for the purpose
of the experience and the video

[wxman57]

I'll have my camera ready for tropical action this season...hopefully I can get some good footage
close to home...nothing too strong...but the eye of a strong tropical storm or low end
category 1, though certainly capable of damage...would be excellent for the purpose
of the experience and the video

I certainly hope they're closer to your home (than mine) this year. The lower-end Cat 1 winds we experienced across Houston with Ike knocked our power out for 2 weeks and basically ground the city 4th largest city in the U.S. to a halt for weeks after impact. Be careful what you wish for.