Tornado/FF/Watch for AZ

Arizwx · #1 Postby **Arizwx** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 3:41 pm

This is a very dangerous scenario..one that I have not seen since 94-95.
I have a current sfc of 95F with a 62F dewpt..with sun.
Very unstable air is parked over us with cooling aloft another 9C from yesterday!Upper air plots are off the wall.Sat shows Neg80 aloft in N Mex and Northern Sonora,Mx..already SEv Trstrms are firing along the SpeedMax incoming from TX/Okla on a wrap around inverted Trof..extending also to an inverted trof in Mex..and a UL over Baja Norte.
More?Yep...the Hi which we need for steering influence is centered of Albuquerque...this is fetching deep moisture from a GOMEX ELY that has propogated strong boomers from El Paso with the influence of the already very moist air mass in SE AZ.Moreover...a confluent line with some dry air has formed just ENE of TUS..and extends past Douglas,AZ on the Mex/AZ border...I have speedmax inline with this feature on the leading Esatern edge.
With a PW of 1.60+ and this combo mentioned above..this allowed me to take a peak at the Skew-T...yup..it's all there.Now I wait.Should take another 1.5 hrs from now or 3pm MST for the features to react...IF they collide AND a Mexican MCS reforms we will have flooding..that was bad enough last night.
Some areas of TUS got 2+in RA..I recorded 1.45 in 55min!FF City.
Over 40,000 LTG strikes recorded last eve alone in SE AZ!!!
Thursday was bad.Last night horrendous.Put those together and I have Saturday Night Fever!
Worse....Sunday is progged to go beyond these limits.
TUS and all of SE AZ is under a FF Watch from 4pm until Midnight.
I am progging the possible Twister...not the NWS.It's too ripe out there.
I also think that PHX may get in on this act...so heads up.Latest 88-D already has strong/sev incoming boomers on the NM/AZ line headed due West.Looks like a nasty line at that.
Dennis may also see a Rimmer of local severity.
Hang On 'Zonis!This is the 'E' Ticket Ride at Disney! 8-)

weatherwunder · #2 Postby **weatherwunder** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 3:58 pm

Very unstable situation you are in right now. Keep an eye on the sky and stay safe.

M2 · #3 Postby M2 » Sat Jul 26, 2003 3:59 pm

It's about bloody time 8-)

I see the incoming on the Eastern border
and the CUs developing over the Catalinas from my vantage point...
on top of the UA Atmos building, hehe.

Allright -just buzzed over to NWS; we have a severe potential here but
no watches of any kind yet for Phx. SPC hasn't jumped in yet either.
We'll have to wait a couple more hours closer to 5pm MST. Then outflow
if you get yours early DJ, which could trigger some big dev here - and you
know we need it. We're juiced now with dewpoints in the mid 60s already like
you guys but our temps are higher at 102-105F/humidity near to 30. Winds
are NW13G17 - not much yet but that should pick up substantially. We
continue the Monsoon Watch for Phoenix. Candle time.

Arizwx · #4 Postby **Arizwx** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 4:13 pm

You better sit down M2...this could be rough tonight.
Check this out

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

we actually rated a Meso Discussion.
Next..the upper air soundings are indicating a DRY LINE that now extends to PHX West Metro.
check

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/tucson/satellit ... CAPE.shtml

Watch the next pass of a Sat Shot with a nice juicy V-Notch covering all of SE and SE Cental AZ.

Have some yucks with these..they can tell one alot

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/tucson/products/SWRMX.shtml

I'll open the Sunset Grill and Close her Too..Its Disco Nite.

M2 · #5 Postby M2 » Sat Jul 26, 2003 4:31 pm

I am sitting but not for long...Just checked out your links and I've seen SPC
with Mesos for us before but the CAPE is surely interesting. I amended my
post up above here with our latest dews; looks like your Mexican Chiquita
has been dancing on the tables to our south - - are you sure you reserved
her for tonight's performance? I have guests who have never seen the Show.
...hell I can't hardly remember it myself except for posting last year during
the first week of the Soons - we got it good three times and you guys had
nada, so it's payback time I guess :wink:

That's ok - we have lots of cold
Dos Equis, Corona, Tecate cerveza on ice con mucha lima awaiting.
Umm, that reminds me....

m0

weatherlover427 · #6 Postby **weatherlover427** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 4:41 pm

It sounds very nasty out there tonight, stay safe. If anyone knows of a Mormon Drive in Tucson, let me know what happens in that area because my grandpa lives on that street. :o

Arizwx · #7 Postby **Arizwx** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 4:44 pm

You seem to be in what I call 'The 'Soon Swoon' up there..a sort of Manic/Polar Opposite of the Monsoonal Meds dearly needed.
Seriously..if you have guests from Non-ZoniLand...this could be a real show for them.
BTW..last night I dam near got hit by a CG strike just as I parked 'Chaser 1'..it was close.Very close.Chaser has more hail damage to her BTW..ah well..War is Hell.I call them 'Character Scars'.
Now..watch the Skew-T over the next hrs...this is gonna get interesting.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/tus.gif

I have the Blender on Backup Power ..MargaritaVille will stay open.

weatherlover427 · #8 Postby **weatherlover427** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 4:45 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 315 PM MST

* AT 232 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT... OR ABOUT 16 MILES NORTH OF DOUGLAS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ELFRIDA...BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT AND MCNEAL AT 250 PM MST

DAMAGING WIND...INTENSE RAIN AND HAIL IS LIKELY. MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING. DO NOT DRIVE INTO ANY FLOODED AREAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
259 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR HIDALGO COUNTY NEW MEXICO UNTIL 310 PM...

AT 3 PM A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS LORDSBURG AND INTERSTATE 10. THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED THREE-QUARTER INCH HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORM WAS MOVING TOWARD THE COTTON CITY VICINITY. PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

M2 · #9 Postby M2 » Sat Jul 26, 2003 4:54 pm

Arizwx wrote:
You seem to be in what I call 'The 'Soon Swoon' up there..a sort of Manic/Polar Opposite of the Monsoonal Meds dearly needed.
Seriously..if you have guests from Non-ZoniLand...this could be a real show for them.
BTW..last night I dam near got hit by a CG strike just as I parked 'Chaser 1'..it was close.Very close.Chaser has more hail damage to her BTW..ah well..War is Hell.I call them 'Character Scars'.
Now..watch the Skew-T over the next hrs...this is gonna get interesting.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/tus.gif

I have the Blender on Backup Power ..MargaritaVille will stay open.

Blender? blender? We don't need no stinkin' blender, or meds
or polar ice capped biconfigural delusions of condensed educational nucleii -
we need rain dammit. The cervezas will suffice; there are plenty of
locations up here that give a choice - and a view; margaritaville was
Monday at I/T. After all, "Saturday is another day"... 8-)

Arizwx · #10 Postby **Arizwx** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 5:03 pm

M2 wrote:
Arizwx wrote:
You seem to be in what I call 'The 'Soon Swoon' up there..a sort of Manic/Polar Opposite of the Monsoonal Meds dearly needed.
Seriously..if you have guests from Non-ZoniLand...this could be a real show for them.
BTW..last night I dam near got hit by a CG strike just as I parked 'Chaser 1'..it was close.Very close.Chaser has more hail damage to her BTW..ah well..War is Hell.I call them 'Character Scars'.
Now..watch the Skew-T over the next hrs...this is gonna get interesting.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/tus.gif

I have the Blender on Backup Power ..MargaritaVille will stay open.

Blender? blender? We don't need no stinkin' blender, or meds
or polar ice capped biconfigural delusions of condensed educational nucleii -
we need rain dammit. The cervezas will suffice; there are plenty of locations up here that give a choice - and a view; margaritaville was
Monday at I/T. After all, "Saturday is another day"...

Well as the Grinn' Jackelope Says to all late night libation customers:
'Why walk when you can Crawl?'The Colorado River Toads were in my front yard(a wash!) Croakin' and Bawlin' all night!Cute baby critters.Thousands of 'em..that's the final criteria for a REAL 'Soon!
'Chief Thundernuts'..my 'Proggin' Kachina Doll' has been calibrated more SEastrly thru the Southface Porthole...he's dancin' up a Storm!

Seriously...thx for that update Josh21...HOWEVER moving SW my sweet azz!Look at the 88-D..she split and is headed NW just off the Willcox/I-10 split to Texas Canyon..nice rotation too.
Looks like backbuilding Meso near Silver City,NM as well...ah the Mud of New Mexico..'If yer truck ain't red..it is now!'
Lets keep an eye on that line bowing out incoming from E.C Zona..thats the airmass that is the kicker.

M2 · #11 Postby M2 » Sat Jul 26, 2003 5:12 pm

Arizwx wrote:
M2 wrote:
Arizwx wrote:
You seem to be in what I call 'The 'Soon Swoon' up there..a sort of Manic/Polar Opposite of the Monsoonal Meds dearly needed.
Seriously..if you have guests from Non-ZoniLand...this could be a real show for them.
BTW..last night I dam near got hit by a CG strike just as I parked 'Chaser 1'..it was close.Very close.Chaser has more hail damage to her BTW..ah well..War is Hell.I call them 'Character Scars'.
Now..watch the Skew-T over the next hrs...this is gonna get interesting.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/tus.gif

I have the Blender on Backup Power ..MargaritaVille will stay open.

Blender? blender? We don't need no stinkin' blender, or meds
or polar ice capped biconfigural delusions of condensed educational nucleii -
we need rain dammit. The cervezas will suffice; there are plenty of locations up here that give a choice - and a view; margaritaville was
Monday at I/T. After all, "Saturday is another day"...

Well as the Grinn' Jackelope Says to all late night libation customers:
'Why walk when you can Crawl?'

Seriously...thx for that update Josh21...HOWEVER moving SW my sweet azz!Look at the 88-D..she split and is headed NW just off the Willcox/I-10 split to Texas Canyon..nice rotation too.
Looks like backbuilding Meso near Silver City,NM as well...ah the Mud of New Mexico..'If yer truck ain't red..it is now!'
Lets keep an eye on that line bowing out incoming from E.C Zona..thats the airmass that is the kicker.

..."walking" is a loosely-used term...float is more
descriptive. Happy Hour starts in 2.5 hours - come on up to the dry Arctic
Circle for a D.E., D.O. or whenever the O.B. gets here :wink:

weatherlover427 · #12 Postby **weatherlover427** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 5:33 pm

You have a severe thunderstorm watch out now :o !!! Details follow.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 805
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2003

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL 900 PM MST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SIERRA VISTA ARIZONA TO 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SHOW LOW ARIZONA.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE MIGRATING WWD ALONG THE AZ/NM LINE INTO AREA OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR. ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING WWD ACROSS SWRN NM. COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND 35-40F TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS SUGGESTS THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 09030.

...MCCARTHY

Look at the cities they used!!! :o :o :o

weatherlover427 · #13 Postby **weatherlover427** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 5:34 pm

This is the radar we all need to be watching today:

edit to add Dennis' radar

Arizwx · #14 Postby **Arizwx** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 5:42 pm

Could you imagine AFD's looking like this?LOL!!!!!!!!!They wish they could have this much fun with a combo of 'Meterological/Mixological Sciences'!I studied both.
I am watching the 88-D expode now..looks like the 'Chaquita' is inbound from Chihuahua.MX...MCS is setting up.Late floor show tonight.
Under SEV Trstrm Watch now..

weatherlover427 · #15 Postby **weatherlover427** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 5:44 pm

Good luck all in that area (Steve, DJ, Dennis, M2, and everyone else)! :o

M2 · #16 Postby M2 » Sat Jul 26, 2003 7:37 pm

MAMMATUS in Tucson already as we speak - across the whole horizon -
check it out before it's gone:

http://www.cs.arizona.edu/camera/

If we get 70 mph winds here, prepare for mucho damage. The blender
will come through by itself with no help from us. Umbrella in your drink, sir?
:lol:

Colin · #17 Postby **Colin** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 7:40 pm

Man...looks dangerous! :o Stay safe!

#18 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 7:47 pm

we are anvilled out form the blowoff riding that H3 speed max-cut down the heating and what activity we are getting is fairly low intensity right-will have to see if the nocturnals kick in. After the working over we got yesterday here I would not expect much today but do tomorrow.

Steve

Arizwx · #19 Postby **Arizwx** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 7:52 pm

Steve,
Ususally would agree here however.
I have major Mammatus Fields (Minora and Majora) with a speedmax interupting flow in the mid feild...meaning I ALREADY have ROTATION in the atmosphere ..ready to catch the incoming Sev Storms/
Vector 09030!!!!!!!!
Incoming!
Geesus. :o

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Tucson/radar/radar.shtml

M2 · #20 Postby M2 » Sat Jul 26, 2003 7:59 pm

Ariz, you're West of two active cells and are in a potential 'merge zone'.
Sweet.
Look at the Phx radar - there's nothing there (yet). Like the clouds on
the webcam < :wink:

>
Steve you're the source kiddo so you're still in the mix - just not the
blender yet

This is impressive - across the entire West:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/4km/SW/WV4SW.GIF

To note: out dewpoints have really dropped during the last couple hours or
so - now down to 58 from 65 earlier & the humidity dropped down to 21%.