Winter Weather 2008-2009 - IL, IN, KY, OH

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST MON JAN 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...OZARK PLATEAU TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 270544Z - 271045Z

ONGOING ICE STORM WILL SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT FROM NRN AR/SERN MO
TOWARDS SWRN WV. SLEET SHOULD REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE FARTHER N
ACROSS SRN IL AND ALONG THE OH RIVER. WIDESPREAD LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 IN/HR...LOCALLY APPROACHING 0.30 IN/HR WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT ICE/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES E/NEWD EXPANSION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM E-CNTRL OK/NWRN AR TO SRN IND/WRN KY
AS OF 0530Z...POWERED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION WITH
A 50-55 KT LLJ PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z AS EVENING MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THAT MORE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BROADEN RESULTING
IN A LARGER AREA OF MORE STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT. THUS...OBSERVED
PRECIPITATION RATES FROM 0.05 TO 0.15 IN/HR SHOULD EXPAND E/NEWD AND
BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE WRN PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN 00Z SGF/LZK RAOBS WILL SUPPORT
BURSTS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES OF PRECIPITATION TO AROUND 0.30
IN/HR...AS NOTED IN 05Z FAYETTEVILLE AR METAR. PTYPE TRANSITION
LINES BETWEEN RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
SLOWLY NWD GIVEN ONLY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE FLOW...AND THE COUNTERING
EFFECTS OF SATURATION DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION VERSUS
LATENT HEAT RELEASE/DOWNWARD HEAT FLUX WHERE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ARE OCCURRING.

..GRAMS.. 01/27/2009

-------------------------------
Starting to plow the roads in towns across southeastern Indiana. Picture taken from a tower cam at Osgood Indiana Hyw Dept at 3:00 this morning. Looks like it's going to get worse before it gets better out here.




*Note Snow Depth at 3:30 AM Osgood Indiana 4.5" with heavy snow, visibility less than 100 feet...report called into office by one of our snowplow drivers.

[Dave]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN
MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

INZ066-073-074-OHZ070>072-077-280430-
/O.CON.KILN.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090128T1700Z/
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...
LAWRENCEBURG...HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CINCINNATI
325 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY.

A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN THIS EVENING. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT WILL BE 8
TO 12 INCHES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN

[Dave]

Freezing rain/sleet/snow all coming at the same time here at my location now. Here is a picture from the same cam & angle of the picture above, snapped a little while ago. Not sure how long I'll have power/internet tonight so may not be able to update this thread much longer. Getting a little dicey & icey out here.

[vbhoutex]

Yikes stay safe up there Dave!! We have quite a few people in the middle of this storm. Everyone please stay safe and check in when you can.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...OH VALLEY REGION...NRN/NERN AR...PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL MO...THE OZARKS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL...SRN IL AND IND

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 280025Z - 280600Z

A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM NRN AR NE INTO THE OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH FRZ RAIN RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 IN/HR. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /0.50 TO
1.0 IN PER HR/ MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE MO OZARKS EAST INTO
SRN IL BY 03-06Z.

RECENT WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG S/W TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. PRONOUNCED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS BEEN SPREADING ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY REGION...WITH ANOTHER REGION OF ASCENT MOVING EAST
ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STRONG LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPR LVL
JET EMBEDDED WITHIN DOWNSTREAM RIDGE LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND
INCREASES TO 170+ KT...WHILE 140 KT JET EXITS INTO AR/MO FROM THE
BASE OF THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH. MESOSCALE ASCENT WITHIN THIS REGIME
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A TIGHT LOW LVL THERMAL GRADIENT POSITIONED
FROM NRN AR NORTHEAST ALONG THE OH RIVER AND INTO WESTERN WV. 40 KT
LLJ LOCATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL IMPINGE UPON THIS THERMAL
GRADIENT...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW
LVL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS. THEREFORE...ONGOING
BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z.

FRZ RAIN...WITH RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 IN/HR SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE
OH RIVER THROUGH 06Z. OVER WV...STRONG WAA ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT
850 MB JET MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF FRZ RAIN TO RAIN
DURING THE 03-06Z TIME PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. FARTHER WEST OVER NRN AR...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST FRZ
RAINFALL MAY SHIFT SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE NERN PORTION OF THE STATE
AS COLDER LOW TO MID LVL AIR BEGINS TO ERODE ELEVATED WARM NOSE.

OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MO/OZARKS AND SRN IL...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A ZONE OF
STRENGTHENING MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. THOUGH RATES MAY BE MARGINAL
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING...INCREASING ASCENT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...MAY RESULT IN RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR BY
06Z.

..GARNER.. 01/28/2009

[Dave]

County is now in a level 2 status, only ems & highway crews allowed on all roads. Freezing rain continues...have 5.5" of snow below it.

[vbhoutex]

This is turning into a major storm for a large portion of the country all the way from Texas up to the NE or so it appears.

[Dave]

As of 1:45 am est, we are still receiving freezing rain. Pines are hanging low, as well as the wires. Our crews are still laying down a combo of salt, brine, and plowing at the same time. We changed shifts at midnight and looks like everyone will still be here tomorrow night as well.

We're up to near 0.60" of ice and holding at 6" of snow as of 1:50 am.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...MID-MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 280531Z - 281030Z

MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL PIVOT EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND EXPAND
NWD IN THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z...LIQUID-EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05
TO 0.15 IN/HR WILL REMAIN COMMON. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
INTO/BE MOST PREVALENT FROM THE MEMPHIS TN TO CINCINNATI OH TO
PITTSBURGH PA TO BALTIMORE MD METRO AREAS. SLEET WILL SHIFT INTO THE
JONESBORO AR TO COLUMBUS OH TO PHILADELPHIA PA AREAS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1 IN/HR SHOULD DEVELOP IN AN AXIS FROM
EVANSVILLE IND TO AKRON OH TO BINGHAMTON NY.

EVENING MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE ACCELERATION OF
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/. ATTENDANT
INCREASE IN DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL LEAD TO INTENSIFYING
CYCLOGENESIS WITH SURFACE CYCLONE JUST N OF TUP AT 05Z TRACKING NEWD
TO NEAR HTS AT 12Z. A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
WARM THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION
RATES/AREAL COVERAGE INCREASING. ELEVATED WARM NOSE OF
ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CORRESPONDINGLY SHIFT NWD LEADING
TO TRANSITIONS OF SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN. FARTHER
WEST...LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE ACROSS THE MID-MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SEWD SHIFT IN PTYPE TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW. GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD /INTO CNTRL TX AS OF 0515Z/ AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF
SIGNIFICANT FROZEN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEYS.

..GRAMS.. 01/28/2009

[Dave]

As of 10:45 AM EST we've received 12.5" of snow & 0.65" of ice in the Ripley county area of Southeastern Indiana and it is still snowing. Below are a few pictures taken from our tower cam at the street & gas dept in Osgood Indiana this morning.

First one is the same cam & angle from the previous nights. Note snow on roof to the left.











*Note: County is now under a Level 2 snow emergency effective at 1200 hrs todays date. Roads closed to all public traffic, open only to EMS & Highway Personnel.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Snapping tree/flaming powerline video from Paducah.

[somethingfunny]

Friend of mine at Eastern Kentucky University says it's all the precip has stopped now and he still has power, but his school's Internet server is down.