SIO: FANELE - Extratropical
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- Crostorm
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Re: Mozambique Channel: FANELE - Tropical Cyclone
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/01/2009 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/01/2009 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FANELE) 935 HPA
POSITION: 20.5S / 42.3E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 8 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, AND UP TO 450 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN PERIPHERAL BANDS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40
NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS
OF THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
..
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2009/01/20 AT 18 UTC:
20.1S / 43.3E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H, VALID 2009/01/21 AT 06 UTC:
21.1S / 44.5E, OVERLAND.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARDS THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS DEEPENING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
NR6.
IT COULD MAKE LANDFALL BEYOND TAU 18H ON THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
(IN THE MORONDAVE/MOROMBE AREA).
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- Crostorm
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- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
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Re: Mozambique Channel: FANELE - Tropical Cyclone
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JAN 2009 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 20:20:44 S Lon : 42:24:27 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 939.4mb/104.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.6 6.2 6.3
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km
Center Temp : -10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -71.3C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.7T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JAN 2009 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 20:20:44 S Lon : 42:24:27 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 939.4mb/104.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.6 6.2 6.3
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km
Center Temp : -10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -71.3C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.7T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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- Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: Mozambique Channel: FANELE - Tropical Cyclone
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JAN 2009 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 20:24:46 S Lon : 42:21:01 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 925.6mb/117.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.1 6.5 6.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km
Center Temp : +6.7C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JAN 2009 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 20:24:46 S Lon : 42:21:01 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 925.6mb/117.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.1 6.5 6.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km
Center Temp : +6.7C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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- Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
WWIO21 KNES 200856
A. 09S (FANELE)
B. 20/0830Z
C. 20.4S
D. 42.4E
E. ONE/MET-7
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN B AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING IN
A DT OF 6.5 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH MANUALLY DERIVED ADT OUTPUT SHOWING RAW T NUMBERS OF 6.5 AT 0800Z
AND 0830Z. MET IS 5.0 FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM WHILE PT IS 5.5.
AVERAGE RAW ADT T NUMBER OVER LAST 5 HOURS IS 6.0 AND THIS...ALONG WITH
CONSTRAINTS...FORMS THE BASIS OF THE FT. ~TURK
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
A. 09S (FANELE)
B. 20/0830Z
C. 20.4S
D. 42.4E
E. ONE/MET-7
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN B AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING IN
A DT OF 6.5 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH MANUALLY DERIVED ADT OUTPUT SHOWING RAW T NUMBERS OF 6.5 AT 0800Z
AND 0830Z. MET IS 5.0 FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM WHILE PT IS 5.5.
AVERAGE RAW ADT T NUMBER OVER LAST 5 HOURS IS 6.0 AND THIS...ALONG WITH
CONSTRAINTS...FORMS THE BASIS OF THE FT. ~TURK
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
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- Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JAN 2009 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 20:20:59 S Lon : 42:26:48 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 923.0mb/119.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.2 6.5 6.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km
Center Temp : +9.6C Cloud Region Temp : -69.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JAN 2009 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 20:20:59 S Lon : 42:26:48 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 923.0mb/119.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.2 6.5 6.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km
Center Temp : +9.6C Cloud Region Temp : -69.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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- Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: Mozambique Channel: FANELE - Intense Tropical Cyclone
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JAN 2009 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 20:15:44 S Lon : 42:22:15 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 917.8mb/124.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.4 6.5 6.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km
Center Temp : +9.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JAN 2009 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 20:15:44 S Lon : 42:22:15 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 917.8mb/124.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.4 6.5 6.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km
Center Temp : +9.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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WTIO30 FMEE 201215
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/7/20082009
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FANELE)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 1200 UTC :
20.2S / 42.6E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 927 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 120 SO: 250 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 20.6S/43.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 22.2S/44.9E OVERLAND.
36H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 23.4S/47.0E OVERLAND.
48H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 25.1S/49.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 26.9S/51.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
..
72H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 28.8S/53.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
FANELE HAS GONE ON ITS INTENSIFYCATION UNDERGOING VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW
LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGTHENING POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION IS MORE
CONCENTRETED, AND EYE IS WARM
ER
MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN SPEED. HOWEVER A
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED UP TO TAU 18 SOUTH TO THE MORONDAVE/MOROMBE AREA.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS MALAGASY ISLAND AND EXIT OVER SEAS UP TO
TAU 36H, WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/7/20082009
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FANELE)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 1200 UTC :
20.2S / 42.6E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 927 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 120 SO: 250 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 20.6S/43.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 22.2S/44.9E OVERLAND.
36H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 23.4S/47.0E OVERLAND.
48H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 25.1S/49.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 26.9S/51.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
..
72H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 28.8S/53.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
FANELE HAS GONE ON ITS INTENSIFYCATION UNDERGOING VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW
LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGTHENING POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION IS MORE
CONCENTRETED, AND EYE IS WARM
ER
MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN SPEED. HOWEVER A
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED UP TO TAU 18 SOUTH TO THE MORONDAVE/MOROMBE AREA.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS MALAGASY ISLAND AND EXIT OVER SEAS UP TO
TAU 36H, WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
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