Watching For the Monsoon

Arizwx · #101 Postby **Arizwx** » Fri Jul 25, 2003 11:00 pm

Getting the livin' crap beat outta me...numerous Flooded Roads..MAJORCG!!!!!
NEVER seen such violent outbursts so close..Holy Chubasco!!!!!!!
Fire now across the wash at Oro Valley Country Club///LTG hit a 75' Eucalyptus...i'm trying to load the camera..Vis down to near zero//Hvy RA++ Hail to .35in..Gusts to 55kt.More later.

#102 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 12:15 am

and streets, Sierra Vista seemed to have weathered the storm pretty well. Another spotter reported 2.45in during the storm and KVOA reported that there were three reports of 3+ inches of rain-all in about an hour's time.
Hail was also reported in SV though I didn't get any where I was at-however, the storm was a green monster. Tonight the "old timers" are saying "now THAT'S what I call a monsoon storm" while the newbies are saying "WTF? I thought I left all that crap behind when I left Oklahoma!".
After the workover the atmosphere got tonight, we should have a down day tomorrow. Then we get to see if the inverted trough due in Sunday and Monday can outdo tonight-going to be hard.

Steve

weatherlover427 · #103 Postby **weatherlover427** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 12:24 am

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
830 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2003

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION DIED OUT AND NOTHING ELSE COMING IN TO CAUSE ANY MORE. MARINE LAYER AT 2000 FEET AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE NEAR THAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST. MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS LARGE STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING MOSTLY NORTH BUT SHIFTING WEST. AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST BY SAT AFTERNOON...MOISTURE STREAM SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA. HUGE MCS OVER SONORA MEXICO CURRENTLY IS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST AND COULD GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE SAN DIEGO MOUNTAINS OR DESERTS SAT MORNING AS THE DEBRIS MOVES IN WITH SOME UPSLOPE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW LARGE INCREASE IN RH OVER SOCAL ON MON. CROSS SECTION SHOWS MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ANYWHERE LOOKS GOOD ON MON. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POUR IN FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TUE AND WED WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO GO SOUTHWEST WITH A DRIER FLOW THU OR FRI NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BUMPS UP AGAINST THE HIGH AND SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST OVER IT. TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN DROPPING AS LOTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXCEPT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

M2 · #104 Postby M2 » Sat Jul 26, 2003 12:31 am

You guys really know how to hurt a gal -

Again Az's (both) - your storm outflows are evap'ing on the way in from
Casa Grande. Lightning detectors are winding down, not up. I saw some
nifty lightning displays down in C.G. and parts south on the way home to
la casa tonight....opened the roof to be sure there were no good cross-
winds or thunder. Nada.

How can you guys get so pounded so many nights within so many weeks
...and even Dennis is in on the act.... and we get doo-doo. Or in the
venacular: huvna. Not just once, but through the whole dang monsoon.
We still haven't had a rainstorm yet! AAAAAAAahhhhhh.

m0

#105 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 2:42 am

we're just making up for the heavy rains you guys got in February. Also, it's not all that uncommon for the monsoon to hit harder down here than up there. The core of the monsoon in Arizona is in Cochise, Santa Cruz, Graham and Greenlee Counties (Hidalgo, Luna and Grant Counties in NM)
and into the Whites as we are closest to the the main monsoon zone in Mexico. It tends to weaken as one goes west and WNW. It's just a bit more evident this year. I average 11 inches of rain during the monsoon which is about as much as Tucson gets all year and more than Phoenix's annual average-the Post gets a bit less but still comes in over 9 inches while Canelo and Elgin, Rain Valley and those places are closer to 15 inches of rain for the monsoon.

Steve

#106 Postby **azskyman** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 9:38 am

Green Valley...Not familiar with the geography there, but it certainly looks as though that place has had its share of rains this week. Any rainfall data for there? Is there anyone with a rain gauge in Green Valley?

A longtime friend of mine, Nolan Doesken, assistant state Climatologist for Colorado has set up a network of rain gauges and hail pads throughout the state...in particular the populated areas. One goal was to build a high density (every square mile, I believe) raingauge network for that region. In some areas, he has succeeded.

He and I have talked about starting a similar project in Arizona... particularly the Tucson to Phoenix to Flagstaff corridor.

Here's the link to his project http://www.cocorahs.com/. As I approach retirement years, I might just want to crank something like this up here in Arizona. He's laid the foundation...and knows the pitfalls. That would make the project easier to launch. He'd love it if I would say yes...I suspect so too would the Western Region Climate Center. The precip group at U of A is an active one...perhaps it would be a way to get it started.

It would be great to have such information readily available during the monsoons, don't you think?

#107 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 2:32 pm

is south of Tucson along I-19 (mainly a retirement community) in the lee of the Santa Ritas so they catch just about everything that comes off those mountains and they can get plastered while Tucson sits high and dry. The UofA may have beat you to that network as they have been setting one up at least around Tucson according to my son and they are also setting up remote stations in AZ and Mexico for NAME-North American Monsoon Experiment.

Steve

#108 Postby **azskyman** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 3:12 pm

Steve...yes I am aware of the U of A work....and they have been active for some time at it. Last I heard though, it was not part of the same program coming out of Colorado...and the same NSF grant.

Going to have to make that trip to Green Valley and Sierra Vista sometime. Get a physical picture of the topography. Been as far south as Davis Monthan...that's it so far.

Over the years, I've helped place or replace about 2,000 4" diameter/11" capacity gauges around the country...and those things can have quite a life span if their owner take care of them.

Meanwhile, I'll blow the dust out of mine in case something beside gnats land in it tonight or tomorrow!!!!

#109 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 9:06 pm

This shows the blowing dust SE of Sierra Vista as the outflow approached.

I have posted a storm report on my homepage on the Special Topics
page. Just go to the Potpourri Section from the opening page on the site and then click on Special Topics.

Steve
[/img]

weatherlover427 · #110 Postby **weatherlover427** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 11:32 pm

MARINE LAYER MAY BE DISRUPTED AND BREAK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK IF EASTERLY WAVES MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE. MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR WITH LONG FETCH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. LARGE AREA OF TSTORMS MOVING TOWARD SOCAL FROM AZ. THAT AREA OF MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE OVER SUNDAY. NOT TOO MUCH ACTION TODAY WITH MOST TSTORMS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS AND ONLY A FEW OVER THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME FOR SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A LARGE INCREASE IN RH OVER SOCAL ON MON THRU WED. CROSS SECTION SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE FIELD WITH HIGH RH FROM 650 MB TO OVER 300 MB MON THRU TUE AND NOW SHOWS SIGNIFICANT RH FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP ON WED. ALSO DECENT VORT MAX FORECAST TO MOVE THRU ON MON WITH ANOTHER MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AM SO DYNAMICS MAY BE THERE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ACTION.

#111 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sun Jul 27, 2003 5:05 pm

Friday night's storm here turned into a killer as a 31 year old woman residing in Hereford was killed when her car was swept off of Moson Road about 6 miles east of Sierra Vista in a flash flood. She was driving from Tombstone to her home and Moson Road is the main way there-as testimony to the ferocity of the torrent of water, her car and body were not found until yesterday. Moson Road, particularly the stretches north of Hiway 90 and for about 3 miles south of 90, is very dangerous during big storms as there are major road dip wash crossings that can flood up to 10-20 feet deep very quickly as they washes not only drain off the mountains but much of Sierra Vista as well. The road is not lighted at night, and the north section has no residents so it is not often patrolled by the County Sheriff add to that the blinding rain and very low visibility and she probably had no clue as to what was there. Other damage in the area included some interior flooding at the high school, a mudflow in the Walmart plaza, a number of downed power poles and light poles and a roof collapse and flooded out building in a Systems Engineering firm-then there are the 40 downed power poles and 7 destroyed mobile homes in Willcox.

Steve

#112 Postby **azskyman** » Sun Jul 27, 2003 9:34 pm

Few people understand the ferocity of flash flooding ...and these sad examples point that fact out.

We're just tinkerin' with the storms, so not sure when to expect any real activity. If that Mexican swirl would kick a hundred miles north before heading west, it could help our cause...but that is not how the prognosticators see it.

Arizwx · #113 Postby **Arizwx** » Sun Jul 27, 2003 10:28 pm

If one views the WV Loop enhanced..its clear that it slid just South of Nogales and is headed toward the Baja...with a thin slice of dry air intruding into our CWA all the way from Kentucky..with the cold front..and Rockies Downslope raising hell in Denver yesterday and could spell sevwx for the cent plains soon.Some MCS 'leakage' added some nice boomers SW of Green Valley..spectacular CB and LTG views from here at sunset.
rats. :grr:

SEAZSky · #114 Postby **SEAZSky** » Sun Jul 27, 2003 10:37 pm

Hi Buddy - (ArizWx) and other AZ members -

I'm finally here on this board..........

Well, this group of beauties "missed" us
in SE AZ, but - that new group, coming
in from the Rio Grande valley - should
be here by Tuesday. This is what they say
from NWSFO-KTWC (Tucson Metro).

We shall see........ :wink:

Stan - Oro Valley, AZ

Arizwx · #115 Postby **Arizwx** » Sun Jul 27, 2003 11:56 pm

Hello Stan!
WELCOME Fellow Oro Vallien!
Now the 'AZ Six Gun' is complete.
Looking forward to your progs dude...I moved..divorced last fall..live near
Oro Valley Country Club across from El Conquistador...now you have my '20'..later dude. 8-)

BTW..my view from 2nd floor deck IS the SE AZ SKY!I chose this unit for the unobstructed views and Pusch Ridge just to my Starboard.Female Giant Tarantulas are out as well as the big Diamonback Rattlers in the wash..along with the Colorado River Toads a 'croakin' and bawlin'..so we know the 'Soon is here for real.
Stop by the 'El Grillo de Arizona' or 'Sunset Grill' for a Tecate Frio or 'Margarita con Tequila Oro' sometime..heeehe. 8-)

If you smell the Rib-Eye steaks on the Grill after 10pm..your'e close to me! :wink:

#116 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 9:53 am

Arizwx wrote:If one views the WV Loop enhanced..its clear that it slid just South of Nogales and is headed toward the Baja...with a thin slice of dry air intruding into our CWA all the way from Kentucky..with the cold front..and Rockies Downslope raising hell in Denver yesterday and could spell sevwx for the cent plains soon.Some MCS 'leakage' added some nice boomers SW of Green Valley..spectacular CB and LTG views from here at sunset.
rats.

There were mudslides over the weekend in Colorado that closed parts of I-67 by Decker. Due to the fire last year, all of the brush is gone that would've soaked up the rains they received.

Well, at least I know that when I get out there in a couple of weeks, it'll be green and lush. :o

Welcome SEAZSky - you used to be on TWC correct?

azsnowman · #117 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 5:46 pm

Yowza, yowza, yowza.....whatta boomer THAT was, I'm online for just a bit, got yet another in a series of boomers fixing to roll thru, at least it LOOKS that way outside......anyways, around 1140, here at the house, I had .93" in JUST 13 minutes!!! THUNDER......man did it thunder, kinda like Sunday night! Gotta run.....

Dennis

Arizwx · #118 Postby **Arizwx** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 5:59 pm

More Sev Trtrms incoming..propogating from Nogales to Sierra Vista and another line from SE TUS to Vail.
One rogue 'Lobo' pulser is fixed on Oro Valley as well..however below sev limits at this time...my concern is a larger line ENE of Oro Valley or SW of Safford incoming within the next hour or so..looks like a potential flooder for many areas of E and E/C Pima as well as Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties.
Vortmax in N Sonora is raising hell.
Temp 90F/dp 58F/winds L/V/Thunder Lght RA ...ooops..now have HVY RA+
****Severe Thunderstorm Warning***** just issued for Oro Valley..
LOL!I spoke too 'SOON'.***Flash Flood Warning now in effect for Tucson Metro including Oro Valley*** :o

!!!!Poss TVS!!!
@16:29hrs MST..observed from Oro Valley ...Rotating Wall Cloud apporx 20nm ESE of OV or approx 10nm ENE of Dwtwn TUS...observed one,possibly two funnels..no confirmation from Spotter Network..will report.
88-D indicates a backbuilding Sev Storm..near E TUS
Appears Rear Flanker type of Sig with moderate rotation.
Movement WNW @15

16:41
Multiple reports of poss Funnels from residents of E Tus.
I have counted 3 at this time.
One appeared Rain Wrapped on the convergence of 2 Trstrms..now moving NNW 17..incoming to Oro Valley area with mult CG..expecting HVY RA+ LTG and strong winds to 60+.
Will update.

16:49
Unreal view of RA++ over Casas Adobes W of me to I-10 Marana.
#4 Funnel spotted at 16:48 with strong rotation ...incoming from TUS/catalina Foothills from Sabino Cyn.
Movement NNW 15.Incoming looks ripe.
88-D showing some rotation now in NW TUS CWA

17:02
Low level shear now intruding..cloud deck has split.Very Unstable.
Current has TIA with Hail
TUS had 54mph wind
Uof A obs had 64+mph
Current instabilty is wreaking havoc with atmos...it's getting worked over badly.TV off the air momentarily.
Down to 74F/Dp60/wind 23 G 30/Thunder.

17:22
Ready to get CLOCKED by that Trstrm complex I noted earlier from Safford..now going SEV over the Summerhaven area of the Catalinas and inbound to Oro Valley.
Good Geesus..this is absurd.Ready to put a light jacket on..69F and dropping.Winds now shifting ESE 17 G 24.Brrrrrrrrr.
Some rainfall amounts in TUS metro exceed 2in+..and more incoming here in NW TUS/Oracle as I write.
Man what a SHOW!

17:39
HVY RA+

#119 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 7:34 pm

big time. They reported a gust to 85mph at 2:55pm. I videotaped and photographed the approach of the storm to the north side of SV with blowing dust in the city and will post a storm report on my homepage later and will then put one of the photos here. I went out on a chase and was about one mile ESE of the Airfield when the outflow hit them. I had heavy rain and strong winds a short time later at the intersection of Highway 90 Bypass and the road leading out of FHU. I did a core punch and got some backside structure over Whetstone. The storm went HP/outflow dominant so I headed east to get clear of the mountains so that I could see backside structure on the storm over the Rincons and did see a short lived funnel cloud on the backside. We are in a watch box but it was issued a tad late as I did not hear it broadcast until well after FHU got dinged.

Steve

#120 Postby **Stephanie** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 8:37 pm

You guys be careful out there!!! :o

Watching For the Monsoon

Except for Flooded Washes

Well,

Green Valley

A Photo of Last Night's Storm

Sadly

FHU Got Clocked

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