Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

PTrackerLA · #941 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 2:32 pm

What's funny is the way things look now is we get colder Tuesday/Wednesday night then we ever do by the end of the week and weekend. It's great to get things back to winter but it doesn't look like we'll even reach the 20's with this cold snap which I wouldn't consider "arctic" for this area at all. Probably 3 or 4 light freezes this week just to turn the things that have turned green brown again. :lol:

#942 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 4:12 pm

Things still can and will probably change before the very cold weather arrives.

PTrackerLA wrote:What's funny is the way things look now is we get colder Tuesday/Wednesday night then we ever do by the end of the week and weekend. It's great to get things back to winter but it doesn't look like we'll even reach the 20's with this cold snap which I wouldn't consider "arctic" for this area at all. Probably 3 or 4 light freezes this week just to turn the things that have turned green brown again.

jinftl · #943 Postby **jinftl** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 5:07 pm

There is no question that many places will be colder than they have been in the U.S. (and below normal for a change). It doesn't seem, and I could be wrong and need to be corrected, that this is 'the arctic invasion' of all time...or even the decade (if this is the timeframe JB mentioned this for last week). It seems that this will be a large airmass that is cold but I am just not seeing talk from the NWS offices that an arctic invasion that will be reference for years to come is on its way. I know some think 'the bottom will drop out' and take the 'just wait, it's coming' view....i am not 100% sure what the expectations of that would be....i can't see Lake Okechobee freezing over. This could be the 'bottom dropping out' airmass of the season or maybe there will be a few....in other words, winter.

Also found it interesting that there is a pretty fast rebound in places...check out the forecast for Grand Forks, ND....a 50 deg increase in temp from Wednesday to Sunday. By then, temps will go from well below normal to well above (avg hi/low is 14/-5). January thaw?

NWS Forecast
Issued by: National Weather Service Grand Forks, ND
Last Update: 3:19 pm CST Jan 11, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -32.

Thursday: Sunny and cold, with a high near -13.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -19.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near -4.

Friday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -8.

Saturday: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 12.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 1.

Sunday: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21.

Extremeweatherguy · #944 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 8:59 pm

If NYC reaches 4˚F (or colder) for a low temperature, then it will be the Arctic outbreak of the decade for them. They haven't been that chilly in Central Park since 1994.

jinftl · #945 Postby **jinftl** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 9:16 pm

Not sure if i agree. If NYC hit 4 deg, it would be the coldest temperature of the decade. But does that make it the arctic outbreak of the decade? What if the 4 deg reading was sandwiched between a warm day (before cold front) and seasonable day as the airmass quickly modified? Or the scenario where NYC stays below 20 for high temps for a week...and lows between 5-10 deg all week. That's probably a worse arctic outbreak than the 1 day at 4 deg for the low. I guess it comes down is there a duration element to an 'arctic outbreak' or can one night be an outbreak?

Extremeweatherguy wrote:If NYC reaches 4˚F (or colder) for a low temperature, then it will be the Arctic outbreak of the decade for them. They haven't been that chilly in the Central Park since 1994.

severe · #946 Postby **severe** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 10:13 pm

I don't place any credence in what the NWS forecast, sorry, especially when it comes to winter in southeast Texas.
They're more like weather reporters to me.
After the fact or during.
Just an opinion.

#947 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 10:42 pm

"Just an opinion" doesn't make it around here when you directly challenge the NWS and their abilities. Provide us examples of their ineptitude and better yet, if they are so bad, maybe you can do better? We welcome anyone posting their own forecasts as long as they are accompanied by our required disclaimer.

#948 Postby **amawea** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 10:47 pm

severe wrote:I don't place any credence in what the NWS forecast, sorry, especially when it comes to winter in southeast Texas.
They're more like weather reporters to me.
After the fact or during.
Just an opinion.

I agree Severe! The NWS can't forecast crap over 12 hrs out these days. I think the gov won't let them be meterorologist anymore. They have to forecast the models, which is b.s.
I'm telling you. I watched a forecaster on the 10 p.m. weather (name and channel withheld)say there was absolutely no chance of a white Christmas on Christmas eve. I was awakened by a phone call from my Dad at 7:00 a.m. Christmas morning to see about 5 inches of snow on the ground and it snowed till 2 p.m. that afternoon. I just couldn't believe it! That was here in North Arkansas.

#949 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 10:58 pm

amawea wrote:
severe wrote:I don't place any credence in what the NWS forecast, sorry, especially when it comes to winter in southeast Texas.
They're more like weather reporters to me.
After the fact or during.
Just an opinion.

I agree Severe! The NWS can't forecast crap over 12 hrs out these days. I think the gov won't let them be meterorologist anymore. They have to forecast the models, which is b.s.
I'm telling you. I watched a forecaster on the 10 p.m. weather (name and channel withheld)say there was absolutely no chance of a white Christmas on Christmas eve. I was awakened by a phone call from my Dad at 7:00 a.m. Christmas morning to see about 5 inches of snow on the ground and it snowed till 2 p.m. that afternoon. I just couldn't believe it! That was here in North Arkansas.

Uh, unless I am crazy(quiet in the peanut gallery please!), "name and channel withheld" doesn't have anything to do with the NWS unless they have changed what they do and gone public on the TV issuing their forecasts.

Now, this thread is about "One or more arctic blasts on the way" and now what peoples opinoins of how well the NWS forecasts. Let's take it back to the subject please.

Ed Mahmoud · #950 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 11:17 pm

Still a glancing blow to Texas, but enough of a glancing blow for a hard freeze to Houston. But not 1989 style Polar Express says the GFS. And while heights and 850 mb temps stay the same (about) as previous runs that dropped NYC below zero (Farenheit), 2 meter temps from AccuWx say no sub-zero day for NYC.

Maybe the wind, but IIRC, previous runs weren't dead calm either.

Ed Mahmoud · #951 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 11:29 pm

jinftl wrote:Not sure if i agree. If NYC hit 4 deg, it would be the coldest temperature of the decade. But does that make it the arctic outbreak of the decade? What if the 4 deg reading was sandwiched between a warm day (before cold front) and seasonable day as the airmass quickly modified? Or the scenario where NYC stays below 20 for high temps for a week...and lows between 5-10 deg all week. That's probably a worse arctic outbreak than the 1 day at 4 deg for the low. I guess it comes down is there a duration element to an 'arctic outbreak' or can one night be an outbreak?

Extremeweatherguy wrote:If NYC reaches 4˚F (or colder) for a low temperature, then it will be the Arctic outbreak of the decade for them. They haven't been that chilly in the Central Park since 1994.

New 0Z GFS has NYC approach 40ºF (2 meter temps from AccuWx PPV) on Tuesday, the warmest it predicts for the next 7 days. IIRC, 40ºF is about the normal high in NYC, so 1 day near normal for highs the next week.

NWS OKX has 38 to 39ºF on its web page at various NYC airports as normal high, so 1 day with a normal high, the rest of the week below to well below, next Friday to Sunday looks like highs warming from teens to low 20s .

below, for AccuWx PPV subscribers- Friday high temps- normal is about 39ºF

Edit- if you can see the image, I don't think it is PPV. But I wouldn't bet first born children or anything.

Edit 2- A PM from a mod makes me nervous AccuWx will come after me like Metallica did with 14 year old boys downloading "Enter Sandman". See below poor resolution image from US government web site.

Ed Mahmoud · #952 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:03 am

OK, not as finely detailed, and in Celcius, but Friday is a cold day in NYC

#953 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:50 am

NWS New Orleans has forecast a low of 26 here on the Mississippi Coast Friday morning. We shall see how they update as the week progresses. Last winter we hit 23 on Jan 3rd and a mid 20's happen nearly every winter here, so this might be our low for the season. All my plants are showing some little green leaves so I hope it don't get any colder......MGC

#954 Postby **lrak** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 9:46 am

shibumi wrote:
lrak wrote:Do you guys think that far S Texas willl participate? Our local NWS graphics do not anticipate this coming our way. I planted a lot of tender veggies and I sure don't want all that work to go into the ice box for a couple of day. It seems every time an arctic outbreak is forcasted a lot of the cold air slides down the eastern side of the continental divide all the way down into the Rio Grande Valley.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=167

Thanks

Karl

Do you mean vegetation of vegetables? Most cool weather veggies aren't bothered by freezes much...like carrots, lettuce, beets, cabbage, etc. Mine were covered in snow and they loved it!

No not food veggies, I was a goofball and planted some tropical stuff. We live right on the water but the water is really getting cold...ACK! I will wait to plant stuff a little later next year if this cold pattern last a while in 09. $$$ lessons are better than any other IMO....

tropicana · #955 Postby **tropicana** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 9:54 am

so this is looking to be the coldest air mass to invade the North-eastern US since mid-January 1994. On January 19 1994, New York City registered -2F for a low,its 1st sub-zero temperature since the cold outbreak of January 1985 (Jan 21 1985 when it was also -2F).

That 1994 cold spell was memorable. But news of it got over-shadowed nationally when Los Angeles and portions of Southern California got rocked by a major earthquake on the morning of Monday Jan 17, at 431am in the morning. It was a federal holiday that day, and then President Bill Clinton declared ther egion a disaster area.
Incidentally, LA and Southern California was in the midst of sunny, balmy weather with highs in the 60s and 70s, even as that brutal air mass arrived out of Canada.

-justin-

#956 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 10:07 am

Warming isn't forecast in AK until tomorrow although temps are warmer than last Friday, slightly (-20F). Currently -41C in Yellowknife in the Northwest Territories in Canada and -25C in Whitehorse in the Yukon Territory in Canada. Will also add the the first in a series of clippers has moved S and E of Bismark, ND...

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

Also out of Bismark in this mornings AFD...

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT 6 AM THURSDAY
SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LOWS OF 25
TO 30 BELOW...WITH SOME ISOLATED 35 TO 40 BELOW READINGS OVER DEEP
SNOW COVER. RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH WILL BRING IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND WITH VERY DRY AIR EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES ON WARM ADVECTION TO BE
LOW. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON FRIDAY BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL
LEAVE THE PERIOD DRY. SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND TO
MORE NORMAL VALUES.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

jinftl · #957 Postby **jinftl** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 10:51 am

Not to alarm any of the cold weather fans....Calgary is going to warm to near 50F deg by next weekend....and Winnipeg which will have a high of -11F on Wednesday will have a high of 28F by the weekend (normal is 10F). Yellowknife in the Northwest Territories of Canada is sitting at -42F right now....by Saturday the forecast high is +33F...then down to +21F pm Sunday (normal high is -8F).

Is this the making of a January thaw?

Ed Mahmoud · #958 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 11:07 am

Extreme warm weather in Alaska or the Yukon after cold weather sometimes means high pressure has built far enough Northward to displace the cold air, and that cold air is heading somewhere.

Preferably New York City. I was born there.

#959 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 11:08 am

Good old Chinook winds will do this every time. :wink:

jinftl · #960 Postby **jinftl** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:02 pm

Calgary's warm-up is due to the chinook winds....map below shows where chinook winds are most prevelent in canda (red being the most)...can't really say for sure that the Winnipeg and Yellowknife temps are coming from that, I didn't find any reference to chinook winds under the climate profiles. Their temps are probably more a result of a moderation of the airmass...possibly because the cold air is being displaced further east.

But I would hazard to say this....whereas the presence of arctic air in ak/canada/nw terr is not an absolute sign that an arctic blast is headed for the deep south.....i think it would be tough to get a severe arctic blast into the deep south without the presence of below normal arctic air in ak/canada/nw terr moving into the plains. Haven't heard of too many severe arctic airmasses in the deep south (talking temps near or below record lows) generating over long island or chicago. The significance of this...chinook effect in calgary aside...is more likely downstream...and may indicate a building ridge from west to east...with a resulting warm-up across the east later in the month.

srainhoutx wrote:Good old Chinook winds will do this every time.

Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

Re: One or more arctic blasts on the way?

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