2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[gboudx]

DFW NWS not sounding too "alarming" this afternoon.

snippet.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS VERY TRICKY DUE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE ADVERTISED MUCH COLDER WEATHER
IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
AMPLIFIES A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST AND AS FAR NORTH INTO
ALASKA WHICH WILL ALLOW BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR TO DROP DOWN INTO
THE CONUS. ONLY PROBLEM WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS IMPLIES MUCH OF THE COLD AIR WILL HEAD EAST OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CURRENT THINKING IS IT WILL BE COLD BUT
WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE PLAUSIBLE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.
THESE MODELS SUGGEST A PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ACTUALLY INVADE
NORTH TEXAS EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION MAKES
THE MOST SENSE IN REGARDS TO POSITIONING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSEQUENT TROUGH OVER THE CONUS.

LATEST FORECAST WILL UNDERCUT MOS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REFLECT THE ECMWF. FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MEX MOS NUMBERS AS THE COLDEST AIR IN
THE PAST 2 YEARS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS.

[Stormcenter]

Everyone has a different opinion...I'm sure they'll be changing their
tune on Monday if not sooner.

DFW NWS not sounding too "alarming" this afternoon.

snippet.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS VERY TRICKY DUE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE ADVERTISED MUCH COLDER WEATHER
IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
AMPLIFIES A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST AND AS FAR NORTH INTO
ALASKA WHICH WILL ALLOW BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR TO DROP DOWN INTO
THE CONUS. ONLY PROBLEM WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS IMPLIES MUCH OF THE COLD AIR WILL HEAD EAST OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CURRENT THINKING IS IT WILL BE COLD BUT
WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE PLAUSIBLE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.
THESE MODELS SUGGEST A PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ACTUALLY INVADE
NORTH TEXAS EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION MAKES
THE MOST SENSE IN REGARDS TO POSITIONING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSEQUENT TROUGH OVER THE CONUS.

LATEST FORECAST WILL UNDERCUT MOS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REFLECT THE ECMWF. FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MEX MOS NUMBERS AS THE COLDEST AIR IN
THE PAST 2 YEARS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS.

[CaptinCrunch]

8 full days into January and we are 10+ degrees above the normal monthly average. Currently it's 77 out side and sunny.

AV DAILY TEMP.....H/67.5.......L/40.4

[southerngale]

8 full days into January and we are 10+ degrees above the normal monthly average. Currently it's 77 out side and sunny.

Enjoy this nice weather. That average might look a lot different after next week.

[srainhoutx]

8 full days into January and we are 10+ degrees above the normal monthly average. Currently it's 77 out side and sunny.

Enjoy this nice weather. That average might look a lot different after next week.

I hear you. HGX buying a GFS/ECMWF solution for now...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF COLDER AIR MASSES WILL PUSH ACROSS SE TX OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND WITH A COLDER ONE ON ITS WAY LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK. FOR THIS FORECAST WENT WITH THE NAM IN THE SHORT TERM AND A
MIX OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE LONG TERM.

THE FIRST AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT
ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BIT OF A
CAP OVERHEAD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 850 MB. DID KEEP THE
PATCHY FOG FORECAST IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE
TRYING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID TX COASTAL AREAS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE DROPPING TEMPERATURES DURING SATURDAY MORNING
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CHILLY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK WITH A
REINFORCING FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE MONDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ALLOWING THE VERY
COLD AIR OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE INTERIOR OF AK TO WORK ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AIR WILL
MODIFY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD AND THE ECMWF IS STILL HINTING AT IT
PUSHING MORE EASTWARD THAN SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FELT THAT THE GFS
WAS FINALLY COMING IN LINE WITH THE EARLIER THINKING OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND THAT THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.

[Ed Mahmoud]

We've barely made it below freezing, even during the December 10th Snow Miracle, so it wouldn't take anything freakishly cold to give us the coldest weather of the Winter.



I'm betting 24ºF Friday morning, coldest of the Winter, and will cause frond damage on my pygmy date palm, but that thing has nasty spikes, and isn't easily frost-paper wrapped.

Incredibly bitter cold by Florida standards, but we're a little more cold hardy here in Texas.

[vbhoutex]

We've barely made it below freezing, even during the December 10th Snow Miracle, so it wouldn't take anything freakishly cold to give us the coldest weather of the Winter.



I'm betting 24ºF Friday morning, coldest of the Winter, and will cause frond damage on my pygmy date palm, but that thing has nasty spikes, and isn't easily frost-paper wrapped.

Incredibly bitter cold by Florida standards, but we're a little more cold hardy here in Texas.

If you are from Central Florida southwards maybe. I lived in N. FL till I was 18 and then got to Texas as soon as I could. However, besides in Des Moines, Iowa the coldest temps I have experienced were in Tallahassee. We've come within a degree or two here in Houston, but not on a consistent basis.

[wxman22]

We've barely made it below freezing, even during the December 10th Snow Miracle, so it wouldn't take anything freakishly cold to give us the coldest weather of the Winter.



I'm betting 24ºF Friday morning, coldest of the Winter, and will cause frond damage on my pygmy date palm, but that thing has nasty spikes, and isn't easily frost-paper wrapped.

Incredibly bitter cold by Florida standards, but we're a little more cold hardy here in Texas.

If you are from Central Florida southwards maybe. I lived in N. FL till I was 18 and then got to Texas as soon as I could. However, besides in Des Moines, Iowa the coldest temps I have experienced were in Tallahassee. We've come within a degree or two here in Houston, but not on a consistent basis.

Not necessarily Texas as a whole gets much colder temps than even north Florida remember Texas is a big state so while Houston may not be any colder than north Florida North Texas and the Texas Panhandle certainly are...

[srainhoutx]

Interesting tidbit from BRO tonight...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
800 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...WAITING ON FROPA EARLY SAT PM. THIS ONE WILL BE WEAK
AS COMPARED TO THE AMS BREWING IN NW CANADA ATTM. TEMPS WILL REACH
75 IN BRO SAT...THEN FALL TO THE UPPER 50S BY LATE EVENING. SOME
SHRAS SAT PM THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN DRY BY NOON SUN. SFC WINDS
WILL NOT RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY...AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE MS VLY AND BITTER COLD AIR BEGINS IT`S
ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST. LATEST MDLS ARE SHOWING STRONG FROPA EARLY
THURSDAY MRNG THEN 850MB TEMPS DROP TO 0 DEG TO -3 DEG C BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY WITH PCPN FALLING THRU THIS COLD AIR. THESE COLD TEMPS
REMAIN THRU NOON FRIDAY...AND A WINTERY MIX OF PCPN CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR LATE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY ATTM. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FCST FROM THE NWS IN BRO AS THIS COLD AMS BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS WITH LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE DURING THE ENTRY OF
THIS AMS THU/FRI.
&&

Almost like the "Good Old Days"

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian--a glancing blow of cold air (and a near miss on a little light frozen precip) mid-week, nothing too terrible temperature wise for SE Texas.

[Stormcenter]

Don't you love the CMC?

Canadian--a glancing blow of cold air (and a near miss on a little light frozen precip) mid-week, nothing too terrible temperature wise for SE Texas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't you love the CMC?

Canadian--a glancing blow of cold air (and a near miss on a little light frozen precip) mid-week, nothing too terrible temperature wise for SE Texas.

Euro (from PSU e-Wall through Friday)

glancing blow of cold air for Texas, but an interesting development, surface low tracking near 850 mb -15º isotherm in Ohio Valley.


Look at the Ucellini and Koscin book, most big East Coast storms that snow in Northeast have surface low fairly close to 850 mb freezing line.

I think JB mentioned this earlier today in a discussion, a storm mid week where there is no rain in the 'warm sector', heaviest snow falls along and South of the storm track, with lighter snow North of it.

[hriverajr]

We probably won't really know until the air starts entering the US. Models have been kinda everywhere lately. All we know is west coast ridge and a lot of arctic air. Will have to wait and see. In fact the Oz GFS looks warped to be honest.



Hector

[srainhoutx]

We probably won't really know until the air starts entering the US. Models have been kinda everywhere lately. All we know is west coast ridge and a lot of arctic air. Will have to wait and see. In fact the Oz GFS looks warped to be honest.



Hector

I agree Hector. Maybe Monday/Tuesday before we see this pan out. In case anyone missed the Euro at 240 in La La Land was "interesting"

[wxman22]

We probably won't really know until the air starts entering the US. Models have been kinda everywhere lately. All we know is west coast ridge and a lot of arctic air. Will have to wait and see. In fact the Oz GFS looks warped to be honest.



Hector

I agree Hector. Maybe Monday/Tuesday before we see this pan out. In case anyone missed the Euro at 240 in La La Land was "interesting"

are you talking about the gulf low?

[LaBreeze]

A Gulf low? What are we talking about here - please explain.

[gboudx]

DFW still not impressed.

AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST...SO HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

[double D]

I don't know about that gboudx. I could be wrong, but with such a strong arctic high coming down I don't see how it gets shoved off to the east. It looks like some of the NWS offices are model hugging and not taking what these dense arctic airmasses are capable of. We shall see.

[gboudx]

Yeah I know what everyone says about these airmasses coming straight down the spine of the Rockies and disobeying the upper-air flow that wants to shunt it more east. We've seen it happen and we're amateurs(mostly), which stands to reason that the NWS has seen it happen too. So then why are they bucking that experience and not discounting the model runs? The DFW NWS aren't 100% model huggers like other offices may be. Even iorange55's favorite DFW met, Steve McCauley, said last night that the upper-air pattern typically goes more east than a straight drop from Ak to Tx. And he's not known for being conservative. Even the Norman office is going with the "going east" idea:

HOWEVER, THIS AIRMASS MAY PLUNGE MORE TO THE EAST OF OKLAHOMA, ALLOWING FOR
A QUICK MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.

So, we'll wait and see, but it's not looking like pipe-busting, record-setting temps late next week. Which is fine with me. I'd rather have upper-20's with sleet and snow than teens with dry air and clear skies.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Even anti-model hugger Joe Bastardi, in various discussions over the years, says he gets nervous if none of the models agree with his idea. If the GFS, Canadian, Euro, UK Met are all against him, but the Japanese is close, for an example, he holds out hope. But even he gets nervous if none of the models show what he is thinking, and it looks like all the models are in glancing blow territory.