2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[severe]

Model Gurus, pro mets, glancing blow from this much talked about arctic air next week?

[srainhoutx]

I think it's too soon to tell. One thing I do see is a big chill for at least half the country.

[jinftl]

Most of the talk is on this board from model runs 10 days+ out....and JB forecasting '10 coldest days of decade'...not seeing NWS offices really jump on anything this far out because there is no way to do anything but speculate at this point or build up this 'arctic invasion' so much that it will be hard for reality to live up to it...and alot of weather can happen in the interim that demands attention. It's January so cold outbreaks are normal....and of course every cold outbreak won't break records....but that doesn't mean it can't get very very cold in lots of places....it is the heart of winter.

...it does seem that from Monday to Tuesday, the model consensus is that the arctic air may move on an ese or se trajectory into the midwest and northeast as opposed to due south into the plains and beyond....but there are days for this flip flop and change. At least we have the Groundhog in 4 weeks to give us his take.

Model Gurus, pro mets, glancing blow from this much talked about arctic air next week?

[Ed Mahmoud]

In between the big airport at 41º F (5º) and Hooks at 37º (3º), I have light frost on my car and lawn, which I noticed taking out the trash. I was in a t-shirt and jeans (boss is in South Beach for OU game), and I will need a sweatshirt as Winter has a semi-firm grip on SE Texas.

Not the December 10 Houston Snow Miracle, but we're not in Minnesota and can't get those kind of wild winter outbreaks too often.

[Ed Mahmoud]

With my handy AccuWx PPV showing 2 meter temps falling from the upper to lower 40s during the event, actual winter precip looks unlikely, but rain with temps in the 40s will certainly feel like Winter!

[srainhoutx]

I think it's a bit too early to know for sure at this range "if" any real cold air makes the trek Deep In The Heart Of Texas, but the trend is heading in the right direction if you like colder weather. FYI, the Euro Ensembles are following the 12Z OP trends as well. Something to watch unfold over the next few days.

Will add the Dallas/Ft Worth, Midland/Odessa, and El Paso have mentioned the "possibility" of the Artic Air reaching TX...

FWD...snipet...

JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST...THE ECMWF TAKES THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND RETROGRADES IT. THIS HAS THE RESULT OF
PUTTING NORTH TEXAS IN THE CROSS HAIRS OF SOME VERY COLD AIR. THE
GFS SOLUTION DIFFERS QUITE A BIT AND THIS EVENT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR CONSISTENCY AS IT NEARS.

MAF...snipet...

LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AROUND WEDNESDAY AS THE
ECMWF/DGEX SEND AN ARCTIC AIR MASS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO OUR
CWA AROUND WEDNESDAY.

EPZ...snipet...

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE
TRENDS SUGGEST STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST STAYING IN
PLACE... WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC EASTWARD PUSHES AND
SLIGHT COOL-DOWNS...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING DOWN THE RIDGE
AS WELL. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TOWARDS TUE/WED STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL RESULT IN
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVING BACK A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A STRONGER EAST PUSH OR A TRUE BACKDOOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GIVING US ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COLD AIR...BUT THE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS POINT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS suggests Houston area only 13 days away from a cold rain that could mix with sleet or freezing rain before ending, possibly causing some minor icing on bridges and overpasses.



I know, I know, the 6Z GFS beyond the 180 hour resolution lobotomy, but one or two runs of the GFS correctly called the 2004 Christmas Snow Miracle from 2 weeks to 10 days out, and I am a glass half full kind of guy.

[mysterymachinebl]

latest from the FW NWS:

THINGS BEGIN TO GET DIFFICULT NEXT WEEK AS THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX
UNDERGOES INTENSIFICATION AND OVERTAKES MOST OF NOAM. A STRONG UPPER
JET OF NEARLY 200 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE MONDAY WILL AID THE
DISPLACEMENT OF SEVERAL ARCTIC AIR MASSES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND EVENTUALLY DOWN INTO NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER TRACK
RECORD OF INDICATING THE COLD AIR SURGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

[srainhoutx]

latest from the FW NWS:

THINGS BEGIN TO GET DIFFICULT NEXT WEEK AS THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX
UNDERGOES INTENSIFICATION AND OVERTAKES MOST OF NOAM. A STRONG UPPER
JET OF NEARLY 200 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE MONDAY WILL AID THE
DISPLACEMENT OF SEVERAL ARCTIC AIR MASSES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND EVENTUALLY DOWN INTO NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER TRACK
RECORD OF INDICATING THE COLD AIR SURGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

One thing that I have noticed over the years is the amount of S/W's that rotate around the PV. If the Vortex intensifies as the EC suggests, we are in for a very active and "interesting pattern".

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro seems to show a little disturbance near Vegas/Intermountain West when the cold weather is at its worst, but it is on the subsident side of the trough and wouldn't seem to be able to capture much moisture either. The previous days Euro from the PSU e-Wall site seems to suggest the front pretty effectively pushes the moisture out, and there isn't much in the way of 700 mb or 850 mb level relative humidity upstream for a system to work with.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS @ 150 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif

@ 168 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

Impressive 1058mb High depicted

@ 180 Hours...Interesting...Do I see snow in the Deep South

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180l.gif

Loop of 12Z GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Let's see if a consensus is developing.

[srainhoutx]

A lot of advertising in AFD's today from various TX WFO's...

San Angelo...snipet...

THEN INTERESTING PATTERN PATTERN
SETTING UP...WITH A POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC COLD AIR NEXT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY(1/17). BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TEXAS BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS
THE STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER...1055+ MB FROM THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...VERY
COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY THURSDAY. THE
12 ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON THE COLD AIRMASS INVADING
TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER BELOW 1050 MB. ALSO...THE 500
MB FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DELIVERING VERY
COLD AIR INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD AIRMASS...HOWEVER
THIS NEEDS TO MONITORED CLOSELY.


Corpus Christi...snipet...

MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ON THURSDAY (DAY
7). THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE AIRMASS AND
POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE HIGH FROM THE 00Z RUN...HOWEVER THE GFS
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SOLUTION IN ITS 12Z RUN...SHOWING A STRONG
1058 MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS A VERY DENSE
COLD AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDES IN ALASKA AND NORTHWEST ALASKA...WITH
LARGE SWATH OF -40 TO -60 TEMPS. PREFER TO SIDE AT THIS TIME TOWARDS
THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF THE
AIRMASS CURRENTLY AWAITING TO SPILL SOUTH. COULD END UP BEING A VERY
COLD END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.


Dallas/Ft Worth...snipet...

STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ABOUT ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS TRENDING COLD...ECMWF IS TRENDING
WARM. REGARDLESS...ALL EXTENDED MODELS SHOW STRONG AMPLIFICATION
WITH RIDGING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TREMENDOUS NORTH-SOUTH
POLAR JET EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE AMPLITUDE WILL EXCEED 40
DEGREES OF LATITUDE...USHERING BITTER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CONUS.
MCGRATH AK HAS AN AVERAGE HIGH TEMP OF -33.6F SO FAR THIS MONTH.
NORTHWAY AK WAS ANCHORED AT -60F MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. SOME
SITES IN EASTERN INTERIOR ALASKA AND ADJACENT YUKON TERRITORY HAVE
REMAINED BELOW -50F THE PAST FEW DAYS. HAVE MAINTAINED EXTENDED
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ARCTIC OUTBREAK...
BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW PARAMETERS UNFOLD THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE PROGGING EXTREME EVENT. WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THE END
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LOW-END CHANCES...WILL REFRAIN FROM
INTRODUCING ANYTHING ALARMING IN NEW DAY 7 (THURS JAN 15).

Houston/Galveston...snipet...

A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE MAIN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE ON THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

40

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FCST. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG
LATER TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS INCH UPWARD...BUT IT`S LOOKING MUCH
MORE LIKELY LATE FRI AFTN THRU EARLY SAT MORNING. FRONT STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING (FWIW GOING WITH THE AFTER SUNRISE IN THE
GRIDS). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND
THE FRONT. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT BUT GFS HAS BACKED OFF SUCH A SCENARIO. WILL GO WITH
THE ECMWF FOR FCST CONSISTENCY FOR NOW. ONSHORE FLOW COMES BACK
LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE
WHAT COULD BE A POTENT FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. SEE THE -40 TO -60
DEGREE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN ALASKA... 47

Midland/Odessa...snipet...

REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT NOW BEING DEPICTED ON BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BY EARLY
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS COLDER AIR IN THE GRIDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK VERY LOW AS LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

A lot of advertising in AFD's today from various TX WFO's...

San Angelo...snipet...

THEN INTERESTING PATTERN PATTERN
SETTING UP...WITH A POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC COLD AIR NEXT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY(1/17). BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TEXAS BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS
THE STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER...1055+ MB FROM THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...VERY
COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY THURSDAY. THE
12 ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON THE COLD AIRMASS INVADING
TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER BELOW 1050 MB. ALSO...THE 500
MB FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DELIVERING VERY
COLD AIR INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD AIRMASS...HOWEVER
THIS NEEDS TO MONITORED CLOSELY.


Corpus Christi...snipet...

MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ON THURSDAY (DAY
7). THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE AIRMASS AND
POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE HIGH FROM THE 00Z RUN...HOWEVER THE GFS
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SOLUTION IN ITS 12Z RUN...SHOWING A STRONG
1058 MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS A VERY DENSE
COLD AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDES IN ALASKA AND NORTHWEST ALASKA...WITH
LARGE SWATH OF -40 TO -60 TEMPS. PREFER TO SIDE AT THIS TIME TOWARDS
THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF THE
AIRMASS CURRENTLY AWAITING TO SPILL SOUTH. COULD END UP BEING A VERY
COLD END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.


Dallas/Ft Worth...snipet...

STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ABOUT ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS TRENDING COLD...ECMWF IS TRENDING
WARM. REGARDLESS...ALL EXTENDED MODELS SHOW STRONG AMPLIFICATION
WITH RIDGING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TREMENDOUS NORTH-SOUTH
POLAR JET EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE AMPLITUDE WILL EXCEED 40
DEGREES OF LATITUDE...USHERING BITTER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CONUS.
MCGRATH AK HAS AN AVERAGE HIGH TEMP OF -33.6F SO FAR THIS MONTH.
NORTHWAY AK WAS ANCHORED AT -60F MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. SOME
SITES IN EASTERN INTERIOR ALASKA AND ADJACENT YUKON TERRITORY HAVE
REMAINED BELOW -50F THE PAST FEW DAYS. HAVE MAINTAINED EXTENDED
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ARCTIC OUTBREAK...
BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW PARAMETERS UNFOLD THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE PROGGING EXTREME EVENT. WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THE END
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LOW-END CHANCES...WILL REFRAIN FROM
INTRODUCING ANYTHING ALARMING IN NEW DAY 7 (THURS JAN 15).

Houston/Galveston...snipet...

A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE MAIN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE ON THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

40

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FCST. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG
LATER TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS INCH UPWARD...BUT IT`S LOOKING MUCH
MORE LIKELY LATE FRI AFTN THRU EARLY SAT MORNING. FRONT STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING (FWIW GOING WITH THE AFTER SUNRISE IN THE
GRIDS). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND
THE FRONT. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT BUT GFS HAS BACKED OFF SUCH A SCENARIO. WILL GO WITH
THE ECMWF FOR FCST CONSISTENCY FOR NOW. ONSHORE FLOW COMES BACK
LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE
WHAT COULD BE A POTENT FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. SEE THE -40 TO -60
DEGREE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN ALASKA... 47

Midland/Odessa...snipet...

REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT NOW BEING DEPICTED ON BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BY EARLY
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS COLDER AIR IN THE GRIDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK VERY LOW AS LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST.

Sounds like we are getting into the territory where they want to say the only thing between Dalhart and the Arctic that can stop this thing is a barbed wire fence.

I wish the old timers from NWS Brownsville could chime in. Get off the golf course down there guys and go in and write up an AFD, old school style.

[lrak]

The Brownsville guys had better get something out if this does come true. Lots of citrus farmers in the Valley are sure going to be watching this one. Maybe we'll see them bring out the old kerosine heaters. Gas prices came down just in time for our local farmers.

[vbhoutex]

IFthis were to happen(as of posting time)we are looking at 48+ hours below 30ºf here in Houston around the 20th-23rd timeframe.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Cold without snow just hurts my garden and provides no fun.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW, gave us a forecasted high of lower 30's by Thursday of next week, and trending to upper 20's for high's on Friday.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 32

.

If the bulk don't shift toward the east, then I see no reason why we WON'T see high's in ths 20's or even upper teens by next weekend. Just in time for the AFC-NFC Championship games

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think I'd be happy with just a glancing blow of cold air in Texas if we can indeed get NYC to about -10ºF, second coldest all time day, warmer only than the -15ºF of February 9, 1934

[srainhoutx]

A lot of "tidbits" in morning AFD's in TX...

FWD...

WE ARE IN STORE FOR A BIG CHANGE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NOAM SENDS COLD ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION.
RELIABLE COMPUTER MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
DETERMINING JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE. THE AIR MASS ORIGINATES IN
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA WHERE DAYTIME TEMPS HAVE BEEN MINUS 20
TO MINUS 45+ DEGREES. GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW IN THE DEAD OF
WINTER...STRENGTH OF A RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST...A
MCFARLAND PATTERN SETUP NORMALLY RESULTS IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF WINTER...THUS WE WILL FOLLOW THE GFS AND UNDER MOS
GUIDANCE NUMBERS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDING DO NOT INDICATE ANY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR ICE WITH THE
ARCTIC AIR. 75

MAF...

GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPINGING COLD AIR WITH THE
ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE
WARMER GFS DUE TO DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM. DIFFERENCES LIKELY ORIGINATE
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF
TAKING THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE THE
GFS MAINTAINS MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MID MISS RVR VLY/MIDWEST. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS NOW MUCH
STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AND
EXPECTED COLD AIR ARRIVAL FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS SCENARIO IS
ALMOST A COMPLETE 180 FROM LAST NIGHT WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS
SUGGESTING A BETTER INTRUSION OF COLD AIR THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AS DEPICTED BY BOTH MODELS
SUGGESTS RELATIVELY COOL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.


HGX...

A REINFORCING FRONT IS ANTICIPATED ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE
AREA AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. WE THEN AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A BUILDING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
AND EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF CANADA AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. STATES BEHIND THIS
FRONT...AND THESE DIFFERENCES COULD BECOME A PLAYER ON HOW COLD WE WILL
GET. HAVE GONE COLDER THAN THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE FOR THESE DAYS...AND
THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 42
&&


CRP...

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DRIER AND COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THRU SAT NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE RELAXING. A BROAD DEEP TROF WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MOVG ACROSS S TX. A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
BRING A SECOND SHOT OF HIGH PRES/COLD FRONT TO S TX BY TUE
MORNING...GENERALLY REINFORCING THE NLY FLOW AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS INTO WED. RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY TUE NITE/WED WHICH WILL USHER
IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS THRU WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN ARCTIC FRONT WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WITH THE GFS MUCH
STRONGER AND FARTHER S WITH THIS FEATURE. SUFFICIENT SHOULD BE IN
PLACE FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DVLPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS PROGS TEMPS IN
THE 20S BY 12Z FRI HOWEVER THE MEX VALUES ARE A BIT WARMER.
GENERALLY WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH OUT THE EXTENDED FOR TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS AS THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW WITH
THESE CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASSES.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WxMan57 at the local Houston forum on KHOU-TV 11 sees upper teens in HOU next Friday.


I hope not.

Anything below mid 20s is a disaster of major proportions.

1) I won't put frost paper on my pygmy date palm- it has vicious needles on the fronds that could penetrate rhinoceros skin. Even mid 20s have "scorched" some of the fronds. My orange tree is getting a little big for frost paper.


2) I found out two weeks ago that when my wife's Aunt Becca (who is almost a year younger than my wife (fecund Hispanic folks with large families, what can I say. Except my Catholic (Irish ancestry) parents cranked out five of us)) roof losy a big section during Ike, it damaged the heat/AC unit, and they have only just finally received their settlement check. Temps in the teens w/o heat would bite in a big way.