Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at my AccuWx PPV numbers, NYC still looks like a zero Farenheit morning low a week from Saturday, which, if I understand correctly, has not happened in a millenium.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at my AccuWx PPV numbers, NYC still looks like a zero Farenheit morning low a week from Saturday, which, if I understand correctly, has not happened in a millenium.

It hasn't happened since 1994 I believe.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at my AccuWx PPV numbers, NYC still looks like a zero Farenheit morning low a week from Saturday, which, if I understand correctly, has not happened in a millenium.

It hasn't happened since 1994 I believe.

I've been having a little fun lately with "centuries" and "millenia", as far as weather events go, because "coldest weather in a century" sounds so much better than "coldest weather in 15 years".


As a young'un with a paper route in suburban Massapequa, NY, I can remember delivering 'The New York Daily News' sometime in 1976 (IIRC, maybe 1977) when it hit 0º F.

Not much wind, and it didn't feel that bad, as I recall.

[gatorcane]

The UKM and CMC are starting to show this massive trough developing in the Eastern US at 144 hours. These are the 12Z runs just out showing the 850MB virtual temperature gradients. Keep in mid these runs are just a few days before the trough really digs down around 168-204 hours. Based on these maps, there certainly is a lot of cold air building up in the Eastern part of Canada.

Based on the additional GFS and ECMWF guidance, it does appear the long-wave pattern is poised to change for mid Jan. timeframe with cold in the east and warm in the west.

[Portastorm]

The 12z Euro is just out and I will dub it the "Jesse Jackson: Keep Hope Alive" run. It develops a huge trough over the nation's mid-section which would no doubt dump a lot of very cold air into the Plains (north and south) and into the East.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009010712!!/

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12z Euro is just out and I will dub it the "Jesse Jackson: Keep Hope Alive" run. It develops a huge trough over the nation's mid-section which would no doubt dump a lot of very cold air into the Plains (north and south) and into the East.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009010712!!/

A 1040 mb high just West of DFW would be an exciting thing as far as cold, but really, for cold to be fun, it needs to come with snow.

[srainhoutx]

The 12z Euro is just out and I will dub it the "Jesse Jackson: Keep Hope Alive" run. It develops a huge trough over the nation's mid-section which would no doubt dump a lot of very cold air into the Plains (north and south) and into the East.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009010712!!/

I noticed that "change" as well Portastorm. What looks like a Miller B forming in the Deep South as well. Verbatim, the EC drops snow from N LA, N MS, N AL, GA, and the Carolinas. Liking the ripples (S/W) appearing in the 500mb view. Something to watch as all the folks in the Deep South and SE get excited.

[Portastorm]

Good point about the "ripples", srainhoutx. This run still goes against the grain of what the last few GFS and Euro runs have shown but the GFS ensembles this morning did show a few possibilities like this, so it's still "on the table."

All I know is we're going to be near 80 degrees again by Friday here in AUS and that's ridiculous. Then highs drop some 20 degrees this weekend to near 60. So, you couple that up-and-down temperature with our ongoing severe drought and the normal Hill Country allergen parade and just about everyone I know (including me) is sick with a cold or allergies.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS running...lets see if it continues to show this deep arctic blast out around 144 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... l_mu.shtml

Wow, deep trough I must say:

[jinftl]

A reading of 0 deg in NYC...at Central Park...is pretty rare...only 8 occurrences after 1943!!!!


All the below 0 degree days at Central Park 1900 to Present
1994    Jan 19th/-2
1985    Jan 21st/-2
1980    Dec 25th/-1
1977    Jan 17th/-2
1976    Jan 23rd/-1
1968    Jan  9th/-1
1963    Feb  8th/-2
1961    Feb  2nd/-2
1943    Feb 15th/-8
1942    Dec 20th/-4 & Dec 21st/-1
1936    Jan 23rd/-3
1935    Jan 28th/-1
1934    Feb  8th/-7, Feb  9/-15* & Feb 10th/-2
1933    Dec 29th/-3 & Dec 30/-6
1927    Jan 27th/-1
1925    Jan 28th/-2
1922    Feb 17th/-2
1920    Jan 31st/-1 & Feb  1st/-2
1919    Dec 18th/-1
1918    Jan  1st/-4, Jan  4th/-3 & Feb  5th/-6
1917    Dec 29th/-6, Dec 30th/-13 & Dec 31st/-7
1914    Jan 13th/-3, Jan 14th/-5, Feb 12th/-3 & Feb 13th/-1
1912    Jan 13th/-3 & Feb 11th/-1
1904    Jan  5th/-4

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/below0degdays.html

Looking at my AccuWx PPV numbers, NYC still looks like a zero Farenheit morning low a week from Saturday, which, if I understand correctly, has not happened in a millenium.

[Stephanie]

I remember when I was in college around 1981 or 1982 that the Philadelphia area was hit with single digit HIGH temperatures. BRRRRR.....

[severe]

What does the 12Z ECMWF show for Texas around the 16th, 17th of this month?

[srainhoutx]

PPV WSI shows -20 anomaly for most of TX on the 12Z EC @ 204 hour/January 16th /00Z

[amawea]

Well, all I see is cold and dry! I've had enough of that here on the Arkansas/Missouri border! We have had plenty of cold so far but just a little ice and sleet with a few flakes. It looks like it's fixing to get pretty cold next week but you all can have the cold if there is no snow. I've had it with this boring cold, cloudy , no snow bull.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My AccuWx PPV GFS for NYC area suggests a week long period, next Wednesday to Wednesday, that temps don't seem to go above -10ºC. Around 15ºF for a high.



Impressive.

ETA- Surface isobars seem to suggest the wind chill will not be negligible.



ETA- Wednesday morning the -10ºC 850 mb isotherm is near JAX, with the freezing isotherm near Orlando.

AccuWxPV subscribers can see a freeze for a good part of interior Northeast Florida, but it looks for now (assuming the GFS is correct) that citrus country escapes a freeze. But temps around 40ºF into the Glades suggest frost possible well into Florida.

[jinftl]

This may be the Mid-Atlantic and Southeasts chance to get in on winter temps that, although cold, may not be breaking records or destroying orange groves in florida. In other words, a full-fledged but not unusual even on an annual basis type winter pattern. At least that is how it appears now...lord knows this could all change in any direction over time.

The Northeast and New England may really get some arctic weather...daytime temps not reaching 10 deg in Boston and NY are not a frequent occurrence. It will be interesting to see if the jet stream also provides opportunities for nor'easter type events to meance the coasts. Boston has already seen about 60% of their normal seasonal snowfall...almost twice the normal amount for this time of year. This could be a big snow year in Beantown. Are we on our way to 100" (average is 40" for an entire winter, Boston has seen about 26" so far this season)?

Folks in areas to the south and west...west of the Mississippi and south of the Central Plains....this may be more of a spectator event....at least as it stands right now....there may be a glancing shot or two...to put it another way, the fact that some of the most ardent winter weather fans in places like texas are referencing temps in NYC and Florida that may take place during this event says alot. Not even an outlier model to really get excited about (i.e,. 'folks, this is the one' once you get west of the MS River. Nuff said. For now....because this could all change.

JB's '10 coldest days of the decade' may very well prove true somewhere in the world at some point, but did he actually say where that might take place, and what 10-day period? Three nights of even 30 in orlando followed by a warm-up isn't going to be how such a distinction is made. If he was talking about the Northeast U.S...he may be on to the idea of a true arctic outbreak for that area...at least the coldest of the season.

49 Days to Spring Training for Baseball starts in Florida....'unofficial end of winter' down here...is there a GFS run that goes that far out?

[iorange55]

New runs of the gfs this morning show it getting pretty cold here in north texas late next week. So maybe it's kind of coming in line with the ECMWF. Let's just hope there is some precip to go along with it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 6z GFS is showing a low temperature of 28.75F at the Orlando International Airport next Wednesday morning. If this actually plays out, then it will be the coldest reading MCO has experienced since January 24th, 2003 when it hit 27F.

[Portastorm]

Seems like the modeling is now settling in with the mean trough position for next week ... Texas and Oklahoma appear to be more spectators on this one than anything else, but our friends in the Great Lakes and Mid South regions appear to be "in for it."

Take a look at the 500mb flow for 0z Tuesday:

The 0z GFS



The 0z Euro

[Miss Mary]

Cincinnati/Ohio Valley: local Mets are hinting at very cold, arctic temps for next week? Just wondering how low. Below 0?