#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 03, 2009 2:48 pm
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 35.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 36.1E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A CONVERGENT BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS LLCC HAS MOVED POLEWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS DISRUPTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ENABLING THE LLCC TO PERSIST DESPITE THE INCREASE IN SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE OBSERVED NEGATIVE IMPACT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
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