Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[hriverajr]

Well at the moment.. the trend is not our friend for really cold weather, much less wintry precip if the GFS plays out and it has been somewhat consistent. The NAM and CMC are somewhat similar. In fact after the 10th we may just be having mild weather for quite a stretch. Our best chance for cold and maybe some icy stuff in north Texas may in fact be this upcoming sunday and monday. The moisture fields in fact are not that good except for maybe northeast texas in that time period. The trough moves through on Wed or so and its all over. We will just have to wait and see.


Hector

And reality has to come through and crush my hopes.......I hate living in Texas during the winter.

Well things can change..... but most models are showing the coldest weather in the eastern states right now...

[Dean4Storms]

Is every thread a Texas weather thread????

[iorange55]

New run of the GFS shows maybe some chance of winter precip in North Texas 9-10 days out. Wouldn't count on it, by tomorrow it'll most likely show all the cold air going east.



It does look like the chances for Winter precip on Monday is going down a little.

[Ed Mahmoud]

FAIRBANKS - Bitterly cold weather slid over from Canada and settled into Interior Alaska with forecasters saying temperatures could continue to slide to nearly 50 degrees below zero in coming days.



-42º in Fairbanks at 1500Z

Certainly something of which to take note but to me, getting excited about minus-40 temps in Alaska is akin to marveling over how warm the Gulf is in August. Yeah the potential is there but without any delivery mechanism, why get excited? Show me a lock-sure McFarland Pattern signature in the Euro and GFS with those Alaska temps and then I'll get my kicking shoes on!

That does remind me of the newer members in one of those "Canadian says storm in Gulf in a week" threads who notice the Gulf is "boiling hot" at 85ºF and how something has to pop, and, of course, more often than not, nothing pops.

But wxman22's link does show an impressive ice storm for Houston, crushing the city under half an inch of icy terror, in just two weeks.

The ten day 0Z Canadian doesn't look all that exciting...

Meanwhile, since this thread doesn't specify where the January frigid air is heading, although snow amounts around NYC look pretty paltry, and should be over before Ryan Seacrest hosts the ball drop during ABC's "Dick Clark's Rockin' New Years", NAM soundings suggest 20 to 30 knot winds, and uncomfortably cool temperatures dropping into the teens, Farenheit. Now, people in Minnesota may laught at a 30 knot wind and temperatures in the upper teens (although since they can't watch outdoor football, maybe I should use Wisconsin people), but New Yorkers aren't built for that kind of cold weather.

No, not every post is on Texas winter weather. I have sympathy for those people in Florida who don't get all four seasons like we do in Texas, but it all evens out when hurricane season comes and Florida gets much of the spotlight.


ETA: There was a rocking SE Massachusetts snow storm thread yesterday as well. Really, this thread is mainly for EWG's Oklahoma City winter weather, but can we help it if DFW is just a couple of hundred miles away?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Despite calm winds and generally not much sunlight North of the Arctic Circle, Fairbanks (see link above) has warmed to -24ºF (-31º).

[hriverajr]

Is every thread a Texas weather thread????

No, its not..... but many posters on here in the Texas area. Just like at eastern us weather forums many posts from that area. My interest is in Texas because that is where I live.

[JonathanBelles]

Is every thread a Texas weather thread????

No, its not..... but many posters on here in the Texas area. Just like at eastern us weather forums many posts from that area. My interest is in Texas because that is where I live.

And it doesnt get cold in Florida where many of the rest of us live.

[flywheel02]

And, Texas does take up most of the US. We were our own country once

[vbhoutex]

Is every thread a Texas weather thread????

Um, no. I see Denver mentioned and Massachusetts. Feel free to start a Florida winter weather thread, or a FL panhandle winter weather thread. Gulf Breeze and P'cola Beach are my old stomping grounds and I know there is winter there. I've seen snow there and in Shalimar and Niceville when I have come back to visit. The second coldest temperature I have experienced with the exception of a business trip to Des Moines, Iowa was in Tallahassee.

[southerngale]

Is every thread a Texas weather thread????

Um, no. I see Denver mentioned and Massachusetts. Feel free to start a Florida winter weather thread, or a FL panhandle winter weather thread. Gulf Breeze and P'cola Beach are my old stomping grounds and I know there is winter there. I've seen snow there and in Shalimar and Niceville when I have come back to visit. The second coldest temperature I have experienced with the exception of a business trip to Des Moines, Iowa was in Tallahassee.

And Arizona, Wisconsin, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, Florida, Las Vegas, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.

Texas is huge, though. The weather in North Texas is nothing like the weather in SE TX. The Texas Panhandle isn't far from Colorado! That's why members make region-specific threads, so they can talk about the weather where they live. And anyone is free to join in if they'd like.

Anyway, this thread isn't state-specific. People from various states have been posting here. We can't tell people from Texas to stop posting just so there won't be so many people from Texas active in the thread.

[iorange55]

Is every thread a Texas weather thread????

I actually agree too much Texas. For now on I will report the weather for all 482 people in Bird City Kansas. I don't know where it's at exactly, I've never been there. But you know for everyone from Bird City Kansas just know I got you covered.



Looks like we might see a couple of snow showers tomorrow, nothing major. Then it looks like a pretty quiet week after that with Temps a little above normal mostly High's in the 40's and low's in the 20's.


There ya go bird city.

[jdray]

Texas is huge, though. The weather in North Texas is nothing like the weather in SE TX. The Texas Panhandle isn't far from Colorado! That's why members make region-specific threads, so they can talk about the weather where they live. And anyone is free to join in if they'd like.

Same with Florida.
Winter in North Florida and the Panhandle is entirely different than South Florida.

Heck, from Jacksonville, it is a 354 mile drive to Pensacola, and a 502 mile drive to Key West (344 to Miami)
Not quite the 700 miles from Houston to El Paso, but still enough to make a huge difference in temps.

We actually get 15-20 days a year when it dips below freezing, and have had a white christmas.
Whereas Miami gets maybe 1 night a year below freezing, and is 15-20 degrees warmer on average.

Of course, during the Summer, they are really about even.


You could almost use a thread for each section for big states like Florida, Texas, California, and Alaska. Big differences statewide.

[Dean4Storms]

I just thought this thread was about a general cold weather outbreak and saw the Texas weather thread separately, so I thought they were on the wrong thread.

[Portastorm]

It's somewhat ironic that I'm posting this morning about winter weather in the Southern Plains when the projected high today here in AUS is in the low 80s. Winter, schminter.

The 0z Euro today suggests an Arctic plunge next Friday. Here is the 850mb map. The trajectory however looks like it will shunt the coldest air to the east of Texas and Oklahoma.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_850_temp_168.gif

Today's 12z GFS representation, 850 mb, at 168 hours, is a little different than the Euro:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_168l.gif

And finally, I might add that Monday around these parts looks downright nasty. Thunderstorms and temps in the 40s. Nothing like an upper level low taking the "southern" route ... they usually provide some weather drama for us in south central Texas.

[jinftl]

Miami doesn't even come close to averaging one day a year with a below freezing temp....the last time Miami (airport) was below freezing was 20 years ago.

Miami hasn't officially dropped below 50 yet this winter.

Texas is huge, though. The weather in North Texas is nothing like the weather in SE TX. The Texas Panhandle isn't far from Colorado! That's why members make region-specific threads, so they can talk about the weather where they live. And anyone is free to join in if they'd like.

Same with Florida.
Winter in North Florida and the Panhandle is entirely different than South Florida.

Heck, from Jacksonville, it is a 354 mile drive to Pensacola, and a 502 mile drive to Key West (344 to Miami)
Not quite the 700 miles from Houston to El Paso, but still enough to make a huge difference in temps.

We actually get 15-20 days a year when it dips below freezing, and have had a white christmas.
Whereas Miami gets maybe 1 night a year below freezing, and is 15-20 degrees warmer on average.

Of course, during the Summer, they are really about even.


You could almost use a thread for each section for big states like Florida, Texas, California, and Alaska. Big differences statewide.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I saw a hard freeze in Orlando, FL 32813 around Christmas in 1983.



I think it damaged a lot of palms. Unlike Texas, where winter is an annual event and people wanting a "tropical look" in their yards know to plant trees and shrubs that aren't as tropical as they appear, the scarcity of winter weather in much of Florida means the very rare Arctic outbreaks, when they do occur, are much more damaging.

[jinftl]

From NWS Miami...

[MGC]

Key West has never been below freezing as I recall. It don't bother me where the posters are from....MGC

[AL Chili Pepper]

Looks like the lows in Fairbanks and Fort Yukon will be 50 to 65 below for the next 7+ days. That's cold even by their standards.

[jinftl]

Yep...actually Key West has never been below 40 deg....the lowest temp ever recorded was 41 deg on January 13, 1981. Key West is one of the few 'frost free zones' in the continental u.s.

Key West has never been below freezing as I recall. It don't bother me where the posters are from....MGC