98L Graphic and Statement.. TWO says TD Forming!

[chadtm80]

[cycloneye]

Next time I will wait for your grafics instead I posting the invests and statements As always great stuff with the grafics.

[chadtm80]

no need to wait... I was just working on it while you posted yours and I just didnt notice...

[cycloneye]

Ok Chad.

[chadtm80]

Troph should life NE taking this with it??

[jabber]

Look at the baby low...

[chadtm80]

CCW Rotation on long range Melbourne Radar
http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

Looks nice on jax radar too
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kjax.shtml

[chadtm80]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251454
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING IN THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA...AND
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS PRIMARILY TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT IS PREPARING TO QUICKLY DISPATCH A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

That is very interesting language from them.

[Colin]

Hmmm...will be interesting to see what the recon. finds! :o

[chadtm80]

http://www.weatherbank.com/free/grafx/jsnh.gif

[chadtm80]

632
NOUS42 KNHC 251500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 25 JULY 2003
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JUL 2003
TCPOD NUMBER.....03-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE:A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVEST MISSION WAS TASKED FOR
APPROX 25/1800Z ON SUSPECT AREA OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
NEAR 30.8N AND 80.5W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW







DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/1215 UTC 29.4N 80.1W T1.0/1.0 90 -- Atlantic Ocean

[Tip]

Unless this system quicky exits NE now, it may get blocked and may be even forced west. Check position of Bermuda High on GFS at 18hrs!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_018s.gif

[chadtm80]

Very Interesting Tip... I had not even seen that... Thanks for bringing it my / our attention... Sure does make my day off today a lot more interesting then i tought it was going to be last night

[Amanzi]

HMMM good observation there tip!!!

Your right chad.. very interesting indeed

[Tip]

Here is a little more food for thought. Another trough will enter the east coast on Tuesday breaking down the ridge and allowing a more nort /nottheast turn if it hasn't dissipated inland some where.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084s.gif

[chadtm80]

Starting to get Nasty here in FL

[DROliver]

Bastardi talk about this system getting trapped between NorthEast Florida and SouthEast Georgia Coasts for an extended period!

Peace

[Tip]

TPC's hurricane models are backing up my thinking as posted on Scot's WREL tracking map.

[Stephanie]

Here is a little more food for thought. Another trough will enter the east coast on Tuesday breaking down the ridge and allowing a more nort /nottheast turn if it hasn't dissipated inland some where.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084s.gif

I would think that since it's a long time between now and Tuesday that it would've made it onshore by then. It looks like it's headed due north. As Joe B. was saying, he thinks that it's going to be trapped...would that mean the storm would be trapped by the Bermuda High and the trough?