Here Ya Go....

[Scott_inVA]

9:15 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003

HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.. RADAR AND BUOY DATA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA INDICATE THAT A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE SAME TROPICAL WAVE THAT SPAWNED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. THE LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER AVILA

Interesting given the slowest trigger at TPC is the forecaster. Last 2 days I've developed bloodshot eyes watching the "wave" and trof over eastern CONUS and still don't think this thing goes. But, we didn't want to be bored this weekend...and it makes things interesting for the FLA folks.

Scott

[GulfBreezer]

HMMMM.........like you said, we all needed something to watch this week-end!! :o :o :o

[Amanzi]

If this system carry's on moving Northward, surley it will be a NC or SC problem not a FLA one???

Very overcast and dreary here today, (I am just south of St Augustine )

[chadtm80]

Yes Amanzi very overcast here today for sure

[vbhoutex]

If this system carry's on moving Northward, surley it will be a NC or SC problem not a FLA one???

Very overcast and dreary here today, (I am just south of St Augustine )

The E coast trough is expected to start lifting NE soon and should carry this with it either NNE or NE. May not be a threat to anyone except for showers and some gusty winds along the immediate FL coast and maybe the Carolina outer bank area Sunday or Monday. Nothing initialized in models yet so hard to tell.

[Amanzi]

Thanks for the explanation VB

Getting some light rain and thunder off in the distance here, I have had lots of rain in the last few days, and actually was under a flood statement here last night... the dirt roads around my house are sticky mud traps (so much for my nice clean car)

[vbhoutex]

This is the latest TWO and the TWD says it is trying to become a TD according to another post, so it definitely bears watching from your area N!! So much for my earlier thoughts and progs and map for that matter!!!

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING IN THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA...AND
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS PRIMARILY TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT IS PREPARING TO QUICKLY DISPATCH A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

[Scott_inVA]

Looking a vis, IR, WV and the recent 200mb streams, it *appears* RECCO may find a TD.

Already have 2 emails about my "don't think this thing goes" remark. Did not mean nothing happens, I don't think we're looking at a big TS brewing, that's all.

I'll see if the maps crank anything out.

[Steve]

>>The E coast trough is expected to start lifting NE soon and should carry this with it either NNE or NE.

I know you later retracted that, but it has the potential to stall with the upper air flow. I think the Trof lifts out behind (west of in this case) and doesn't influence one way or another.

Bastardi was hinting at the possibility of it getting stuck off the GA/SC coast for a couple of days. If so, watch out for flooding rains along the coast and a couple hundred miles inland.

Steve

[Lindaloo]

The potential is definitely there if that storm stalls.