2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[iorange55]

Temps continue to fall here it's 23 right now. I wonder if we'll make it to the upper teens?

[JenBayles]

Can anyone give a layman's explanation of why the GFS (and others) does so poorly with these cold air masses? If the fault(s) are widely known, then why do mets continue to rely on them so heavily?

[ntxweatherwatcher]

It looks like the freeways are getting bad already:


12/15/2008 0642 PM

Fort Worth, Tarrant County.

Ice storm, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Fort Worth EM reports multiple accidents on mlk@e Berry
and mlk@rosedale where bridges are lightly iced

[Texas Snowman]

I'm not sure exactly why, but I think it has something to do with the shallow nature of many arctic air masses that make it to Texas - I'd guess that it screws the calculations up somehow.

And while many (most) modern meterologists are model worshippers, many in the past have not been. The late great Harold Taft at KXAS-TV in Ft. Worth was as good as any meterologist there ever was in my opinion and I remember on several occasions when he called for something the other local mets (NWS included) did not or said something they were calling for would not happen. Seemed like 9 times out of 10 he was right.

I also remember that he always used to say that his philosophy of forecasting snowfall in North Texas was that if he looked out the window and it was snowing, he would call for snow (he would then explain that it is so difficult to get all of the elements together for a snow event in this part of the world).

Tx Snowman

[gboudx]

Temps continue to fall here it's 23 right now. I wonder if we'll make it to the upper teens?

Where do you live specifically? Over here the dewpoint temp is 20, so that's as low as we can go assuming it stays there.

[JenBayles]

Thanks for the response Tx Snowman. My grandfather spent his entire career with the NWS beginning just before the Great Depression and ending as MIC in Albuquerque NM. When he retired here to The Woodlands, he just laughed at the "model worshipers" as you so rightly name them. Would you believe we still have some of the ancient charts he used to do by hand? He always had a great deal of respect for Dr. Frank. Said he was the only me in Houston who "knew what the H*** he was talking about."

Anyway, it seems like so much has been lost with this constant reliance on computers and model tweaking. Intuitive analysis of the data takes a human touch (in my opinion anyway) - and stepping away from the computer to go outside for a more personal observation can make a big difference. "Wow! It's cold out here!"

[iorange55]

Temps continue to fall here it's 23 right now. I wonder if we'll make it to the upper teens?

Where do you live specifically? Over here the dewpoint temp is 20, so that's as low as we can go assuming it stays there.

Just south of Dallas not actually in the city, around Cedar Hill. It says 21 now I don't know if I believe it or not. 21 or 24 or 26 who knows either way its cold!!!!!!!!


We just had another shower come by it was more sleet this time, it lasted a whole 60 seconds.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS has 64 vertical levels, the Euro has 91 vertical levels. The more levels, the thinner the each vertical slice of the atmosphere. When an airmass is only one or two thousand feet thick, it just doesn't have that many 'levels'.

I could be reading this wrong, but the WRF doesn't seem to have better vertical resolution than the GFS. I am confused about the hybrid coordinate system as well.

[Texas Snowman]

Pretty cold and icy here in the Red River counties of North Texas. Lots of accidents tonight in and around the Sherman/Denison area and in the Atoka County area of southern Oklahoma.

Some area schools are suspending classes tomorrow or starting late, especially east and southeast of here where precip has been a little heavier.

The temp here in Denison is in the low 20s and intermittent freezing drizzle/rain/light sleet has fallen off and on since sundown.

[Texas Snowman]

Pretty amazing week of weather here in the Sherman/Denison area!

A severe thunderstorm and an EF1 tornado in Denison last Monday night that destroyed a half-dozen homes and damaged dozens of others in town. Enough damage that Grayson County was declared a disaster area by Gov. Perry over the weekend.

Then a brief cold blast last Tuesday into Wednesday.

Then a warm up over the weekend, into the upper 70s yesterday.

Then the front last night, a 30 degree temperature drop in an hour. Lower to mid 20s all day, ice tonight, accidents all around the Red River counties.

And now Joe B. appears to be very bullish on a severe cold surge and a winter storm in the Southern Plains this weekend.

WOW! I guess it is true - if you don't like the weather in Texas, hang on a few minutes because it will change!

[somethingfunny]

Pretty amazing week of weather here in the Sherman/Denison area!

A severe thunderstorm and an EF1 tornado in Denison last Monday night that destroyed a half-dozen homes and damaged dozens of others in town. Enough damage that Grayson County was declared a disaster area by Gov. Perry over the weekend.

Then a brief cold blast last Tuesday into Wednesday.

Then a warm up over the weekend, into the upper 70s yesterday.

Then the front last night, a 30 degree temperature drop in an hour. Lower to mid 20s all day, ice tonight, accidents all around the Red River counties.

And now Joe B. appears to be very bullish on a severe cold surge and a winter storm in the Southern Plains this weekend.

WOW! I guess it is true - if you don't like the weather in Texas, hang on a few minutes because it will change!

No kidding.

[somethingfunny]

http://www.kten.com/Global/link.asp?L=174588

Check that link to see if classes at your school have been cancelled!

[jasons2k]

We got lucky in the Houston area - it is well above freezing here - no ice.

[srainhoutx]

We got lucky in the Houston area - it is well above freezing here - no ice.

Isn't that the truth. Just look at the mess across the rest of the CONUS...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nat_hazard.php

[vbhoutex]

We are lucky here in Houston with the temps running in the 34ºf-36ºf range with a lite drizzle. Looking at the radar tells me that all of us are going to have quite a bit less moderation of temps as the next cold surge moves South. According to many this is going to be an even colder surge of air. I am once again remembering 1989 when the surges kept coming in a little colder each time until we had temps below freezing for 2 days here in the Houston area. I'm not saying it is going to be as cold as it was but I am sure seeing similarities to that brutal surge.

[Ed Mahmoud]

DFW and DAL been reporting light freezing drizzle and mist all morning, temps in the mid 20s, and both report only a trace of precip.

That trace is enough, I guess, to be hazardous.

[JenBayles]

David - wasn't that the year of the "Christmas Freeze" when people who went out of town came back to flooded homes because their pipes burst? (I'm getting way too old...)

Ed - thanks for the info about how the models work. Much appreciated.

[gboudx]

DFW and DAL been reporting light freezing drizzle and mist all morning, temps in the mid 20s, and both report only a trace of precip.

That trace is enough, I guess, to be hazardous.

Indeed it's enough. The drizzle and mist started yesterday evening and went on all night. So while there's not 0.25" of ice(thank God), there is a thin sheet on exposed surfaces, and enough to make overpasses and bridges hazardous.

[Ed Mahmoud]

30ºF and freezing drizzle at Brenham, and per the Brenham ISD web page, school openings have been delayed until 10 am.

Been 30ºF with 100% humidity and drizzle/mist 4 hours in a row, there must be just enough cold air draining in to counteract the warming from above.


Not at all sure the bridges and overpasses out in the country are safe to drive yet.

[CaptinCrunch]

I haven't seen any freezing drizzle/mist since late last night here, just about all the roads to work were ice free, just peeps driving 5 mph with a death grip on the sterring wheel.

Any way local mets are still calling for upper 60's to lower 70's for thur, and friday, with next blast of cold air in here by late saturday afternoon.