Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Does anybody see any freezing rain or wintery precip for DFW? Noaa keeps going back and forth.

[iorange55]

Does anybody see any freezing rain or wintery precip for DFW? Noaa keeps going back and forth.

For this week? I don't really see any, I think it'll be cold enough but the precip chances don't look all that impressive. If we get anything it'll be Tuesday Morning probably. I don't expect much of anything though.

[serenata09]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY AND WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CAA WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON MONDAY. THIS REGION WILL EXPERIENCE FALLING
OR NEAR STEADY TEMPS DURING THE DAY WITH THE HIGH OCCURRING JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CAA WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERCAST
SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE.

THE CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE 50S...WITH AROUND 60 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIGHT WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR CWFA.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AS
THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINS TO MODIFY/WARM FROM THE TOP
DOWN.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AS
SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.
THE MILD WEATHER PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL LAST UNTIL
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S.

PREFER THE FASTER/COLDER NAM SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO GOING A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE MEX MOS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

[iorange55]

New run of the GFS 18 looks mighty cold this weekend. But I wouldn't trust it at all considering they can't even get this cold front right 24 hours before it comes through.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is currently right near freezing here in OKC. The 18z GFS and NAM were not predicting us to get this cold until after midnight!

[HarlequinBoy]

That map is crazy. 'Nuff said.

[PTPatrick]

The afternoon discussion for Denver talks about next weeked and that the lowest 700mb Temps of the entire event(including today when it stayed below zero), could be coming in Next weekend. What boggles my mind is that the GFS all the sudden tries to erode that cold air on the central plains and start a warmup Tuesday still. My limited knowledge in this area would tell me that mother nature will need a chizzle to break up air that cold with some snow cover in place as well, particularly after the whole area staying below freezing for 10 days. Would seem to me, that there is at least a chance that the air would just reinforce next weekend and then last a while longer. Could a somebody comment on this? I mean dont these cold spells often last for weeks until a big ridge or something builds in the southwest, as opposed to the cold just magically disappearing back up to canada. I say this partly because GFS tried to send away the current cold air by mid week(12/18 or 12/19) and would have had denver well into the 50s next weekend on its runs a few days ago...now Denver is likely going to stay below freezing until Monday(12/22) or so. I wish the Euro went out a few more days

[simplykristi]

Talk about ridiculous... At one time, it was 60 degrees here this morning. We are now down in the teens. We've had a 40+ degree drop since this AM.

Kristi

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is now 24F in OKC with a wind chill of 7F (as of 8pm).

If we keep falling like this, then our forecasted low of 18F might be in jeopardy!

[cheezyWXguy]

It is now 24F in OKC with a wind chill of 7F (as of 8pm).

If we keep falling like this, then our forecasted low of 18F might be in jeopardy!

looks like youre getting some light radar returns over OKC now, are you getting any snow/sleet/ice now?

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is now 24F in OKC with a wind chill of 7F (as of 8pm).

If we keep falling like this, then our forecasted low of 18F might be in jeopardy!

looks like youre getting some light radar returns over OKC now, are you getting any snow/sleet/ice now?

No. I just went outside to check and I didn't see anything. There are some clouds overhead, but the precipitation over this area is too light to reach the dry surface. Up near Tulsa though, its a different story. Those radar returns up there are much heavier and some places in that region are now reporting light snow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The front is now through Fort Worth and looks to be quickly approaching Dallas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

A little bit of Thunder sleet is impacting the Tulsa area this evening...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
917 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER SEVERAL ZONE UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FAST MOVING ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THAT IS NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLEET THATS AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WILL RUN THE ADVISORY THROUGH
12Z...AND DEFER TO MID SHIFT FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SECOND PERIOD AND BEYOND.

ADDITIONALLY...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TO NOTE AS WELL...SO HAVE
ADDED THUNDER TO MOST OF THE NE OKLAHOMA ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM...AND WSW ALREADY SENT

[HarlequinBoy]

Eh, things are looking a little dicey for Memphis..models are trending colder. The Memphis metro could potentially see an ice storm if this trend keeps up.

[Extremeweatherguy]

OKC now down to 20F with a windchill of 2F!

[HarlequinBoy]

OKC now down to 20F with a windchill of 2F!

Brr!

Looking at the loop out of Frederick it looks like the echoes are increasing so maybe something is possible in OKC after all.

[iorange55]

It's 65 right now as I type this at 10:00 and the cold front is right here. Let's see the drop.









Now 20 minutes later it's 44! So a 21 degree drop in 20 minutes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is amazing how bad the models continue to be! The 00z GFS still doesn't even have the front reaching Dallas until tomorrow morning, which is obviously wrong since the front is already south of Dallas. lol. Also, as predicted, the model still shows the air moderating way too fast next week with temperatures warming into the 60s in OKC by Thursday and into the 70s in Texas. Yeah right..

[southerngale]

When should it reach SE TX, assuming it will? NWS forecasts a low of 63° tonight and a high of 76°F for tomorrow. But I guess that is what is supposed to drop our temps to a "cool" 48°F tomorrow night and a high of 61°F on Tuesday. I guess it isn't supposed to be as impressive down here as it is up there, or are they just way off, I wonder. It's pretty warm today (currently 69°F, but a predicted high of 76°F), and the forecast for the next few days is also on the warm side, considering it's the middle of December. Not very Arctic-like.

It's quite windy out there, though. We have a wind advisory.

With the colder trending temps north of here, the NWS hasn't adjusted the forecast any colder for us. In fact, they raised it a tad. Tomorrow night's low went from 48° to 49° and the high for Tuesday went from 61° to 63°

Beach weather.


WOOHOO COWBOYS!

[Extremeweatherguy]

We just has a pretty good graupel shower go through here. It put down a very light dusting of accumulation as it passed by.

Temperatures are also now down to a bone-chilling 18F outside.