The calm before the storm?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145313
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

The calm before the storm?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 24, 2003 4:29 pm

Wow how quiet the tropical board has becomed and it is right to be that way because activity right now in the atlantic basin is in a low period of action. :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping:When will the calm period ends is the pending question but the most active time in the tropics is about to start so expect activity to pick up soon unless something dramatic happens and the rest of the season is shut down which I dont expect because of the no el nino event but neutral conditions in the equatorial pacific not will be like 1997 when it was a below average season due to a strong el nino.Hey guys this may be a good time that things are slow to check all the kits in your house to prepare just in case later on you will need to use them if mother nature throws something to your area.Remember it only takes one system to ruin your season so be safe the rest of the season.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#2 Postby Lindaloo » Thu Jul 24, 2003 4:48 pm

I believe it will pick back up in about a week. Of course, the way this season has been it could pick back up tomorrow.
0 likes   

Rainband

#3 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 24, 2003 5:02 pm

Lindaloo wrote:I believe it will pick back up in about a week. Of course, the way this season has been it could pick back up tomorrow.
I agree..this is just the beginning :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#4 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Jul 24, 2003 5:06 pm

Unlike 1997, 2003 has shown us what will likely be the return of the CV season, and with some of the waves that are poised to come off Africa ... one of these down the road will likely be a blockbuster type storm ...

I still don't think we'll have a 1933 or 1995, but we'll probably see a couple of storm that will remind us a bit of the 1996 season ...

SF
0 likes   

Rainband

#5 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 24, 2003 5:07 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Unlike 1997, 2003 has shown us what will likely be the return of the CV season, and with some of the waves that are poised to come off Africa ... one of these down the road will likely be a blockbuster type storm ...

I still don't think we'll have a 1933 or 1995, but we'll probably see a couple of storm that will remind us a bit of the 1996 season ...

SF
85% of the season is left..anything is possible!!! :o
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145313
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 24, 2003 5:09 pm

And stormsfury the 1998 season too.... :o you may know why.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Rainband

#7 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 24, 2003 5:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:And stormsfury the 1998 season too.... :o you may know why.
Why Luis??? :?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145313
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 24, 2003 5:29 pm

1998 was an active year I will never forget personnally that featured Georges that payed a visit to my island :o that ended in New Orleans and who will forget cat 5 Mitch :o in centralamerica.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
ameriwx2003
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 980
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 10:45 am

#9 Postby ameriwx2003 » Thu Jul 24, 2003 5:38 pm

Yes, this looks to be an interesting year.The tropical waves coming off the African coast have been very impressive to date and another one set to come off soon.I have to keep reminding myself its only July. The heart of the season is yet to come:)
0 likes   

Rainband

#10 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 24, 2003 5:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:1998 was an active year I will never forget personnally that featured Georges that payed a visit to my island :o that ended in New Orleans and who will forget cat 5 Mitch :o in centralamerica.
Yes Luis..believe it or not..I was under a mandatory evacuation from Georges and then he turned!!! I remember Mitch too!!!
0 likes   

rainstorm

#11 Postby rainstorm » Thu Jul 24, 2003 6:08 pm

actually, i think the wave train is dried out for some time
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

#12 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 24, 2003 6:09 pm

>>Unlike 1997, 2003 has shown us what will likely be the return of the CV season, and with some of the waves that are poised to come off Africa ... one of these down the road will likely be a blockbuster type storm

Dude. I was looking at the African Sat the other day and there was a storm coming out of the Indian or Atlantic (?) Ocean about to enter East Africa that already looked like a depression (kind of).
-------------------------------------------------------------------
As to 1998, I remember it well. New Orleans got massive flooding from Tropical Storm Frances off the South Texas Coast, had a scare with Georges who veered off at the last minute but destroyed almost all the camps in Lake Pontchartrain, cut power across the city and blew down trees, then Hermine which was BOR-ING. We got the center, but the convection was east of Mobile (!!). I think I saw a 15mph gust from her.

Still, it was a fun year - nothing like 2002 for SE LA, but it still rocked.

Steve
0 likes   

Rainband

#13 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 24, 2003 6:30 pm

rainstorm wrote:actually, i think the wave train is dried out for some time
Helen what a surprise you'd say that :lol: :lol: :o :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#14 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Jul 24, 2003 6:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:And stormsfury the 1998 season too.... :o you may know why.


I sure do ... How could I forget the 1998 season? (Which I did in my original post above). With Georges, and Mitch ... Georges made a ton of landfalls and impacted many areas from the Caribbean, to Florida, and the GOM ... and Mitch ... Strongest October Hurricane of record, and then the tragic loss of life in Nicaragua and Honduras due to inland flooding.

Steve wrote:Dude. I was looking at the African Sat the other day and there was a storm coming out of the Indian or Atlantic (?) Ocean about to enter East Africa that already looked like a depression (kind of).
-------------------------------------------------------------------
As to 1998, I remember it well. New Orleans got massive flooding from Tropical Storm Frances off the South Texas Coast, had a scare with Georges who veered off at the last minute but destroyed almost all the camps in Lake Pontchartrain, cut power across the city and blew down trees, then Hermine which was BOR-ING. We got the center, but the convection was east of Mobile (!!). I think I saw a 15mph gust from her.

Still, it was a fun year - nothing like 2002 for SE LA, but it still rocked.


Steve, I haven't seen the latest Meteosat, but with the way things are setting up since yesterday (in which I noticed several large areas of convection) ... I strongly feel a blockbuster will occur this season. I think my forecast numbers in my signature sum up my call for an active season as well ..

Believe it or not, the remnants of Hermine were not boring in the least bit ... since daytime heating combined with the dying spin of Hermine ... induced thunderstorms which dumped on 9/21/1998 ... get this ... between 10"-15" of rain in just 4 hours in the Charleston area ... Some of the worst flooding occurred in the North area where several locations including one trailer park had some spots where 6 FEET of standing water flooded mobile homes, cars, etc... Thunderstorms had trained along a line from just south of here (North Charleston into Charleston) with the airport picking up an all-time record 24hr rainfall of 10.33", and most of that falling in 4 hours. My area received barely 2".

1999, almost a year and a week later, I made up for that when a nearly stationary cell dumped 9¼" of rain in just 2½ hours ... Summerville, Ladson, and North Charleston, recorded significant flooding and flood damage ...

SF
0 likes   

User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#15 Postby Lindaloo » Thu Jul 24, 2003 7:15 pm

ceye... Georges made landfall in MS. I was on the dirty side of it. Some of the eye was encountered in Gautier MS, and they are seven miles from me. Pascagoula did not receive any of the eye, so we were hammered. You remember it moved in and stalled. Flooding was bad due to it stalling. Places that have never flooded before were flooded.
0 likes   

User avatar
GulfBreezer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2230
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 8:58 pm
Location: Gulf Breeze Fl
Contact:

#16 Postby GulfBreezer » Thu Jul 24, 2003 7:43 pm

Well, I think we would all be surprised if this ended up being a below average season. As for 1995, I rode out both Erin and Opal that year! What a disaster here in the FL PH! I can live without another season like that! It is so hard to compare years though, you can never tell what a year might bring because of the tropics past persormance. NOTHING is ever the same year to year, weather patterns change constantly and timing is really everything.What may form today may have no chance to develop, but the same storm can form 24 hours later and wreak havoc. I strongly feel that this year will be an active season, I just pray that the monster storm that will someday form will be fish food!
0 likes   

User avatar
MScoast
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1014
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 9:23 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS
Contact:

#17 Postby MScoast » Thu Jul 24, 2003 9:33 pm

yeah, Linda...Georges made landfall in Biloxi, MS. I was in the eye for quite a while when it stalled.
0 likes   

User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#18 Postby Lindaloo » Thu Jul 24, 2003 10:07 pm

MScoast wrote:yeah, Linda...Georges made landfall in Biloxi, MS. I was in the eye for quite a while when it stalled.



I bet that was something Kami!! While you were clear, we were being blown all over the place. lol. Some neighbor you are. :lol: :lol: j/k ;)
0 likes   

User avatar
MScoast
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1014
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 9:23 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS
Contact:

#19 Postby MScoast » Fri Jul 25, 2003 9:54 am

lol...sorry, Linda! But if I had to sit in the eyewall of Georges any longer than I did, he knew he would have seen my bad side. :D

Seriously, I feel bad for those who had to suffer for so long. We were listening to Mike Reader talk about all of the damage going on in Pascagoula. I stayed with my parents who live just north of the bay. It was pretty calm there. But where I live in North Biloxi (Woolmarket area) They were hammered for hours.

I don't want to experience that again for quite a while!
0 likes   

User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#20 Postby Lindaloo » Fri Jul 25, 2003 1:59 pm

Me either and to think he was just a CAT 1 storm. He came in and stalled. That is what I fear the most. Just think if a CAT 3 or higher moved in and stalled?!!! We would have been in bad trouble.

I went to stay with my parents. About 3:30 a.m. I woke up and walked into their living room and the look on my parents face told it all. It was really cutting loose then. My little sister was in Gautier and she said it was calm there. Which means she was getting the eye.

Mike Reader and his crew had to re-locate in the WLOX building because the tower was swaying. I heard Mike Reader get high pitched. lol. He was scared to death IMO.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests