Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

Winter Weather Discussion

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gatorcane
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Re: Re:

#41 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 30, 2008 9:47 am

boca wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 18z GFS continues to show an arctic blast around November 12th/13th, but as I stated earlier, I ain't buying it until I see it showing the same thing at a closer timeframe (<200 hours out).

Image

Still fun to look at though..


That looks like a 1055mb high in Canada.Thats some impressive cold air if in fact it comes true.


Look what is lurking in the bottom-right of this image. Yes the GFS has consistently been showing a hurricane moving into the NW Caribbean.

Arctic blast in plains and hurricane in the NW Caribbean for the past 3-4 days of runs (I know I have been following each run).

What gives? :eek:
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#42 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Oct 30, 2008 5:45 pm

As always, the GFS continues to play tricks with us.

The latest 18z run shows very little cold air at all.
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Re: Re:

#43 Postby jinftl » Thu Oct 30, 2008 6:43 pm

Wilma brought hurricane conditions to south florida during the morning and early afternoon on 10/24/05 and then ushered in an abnormally cold air mass later that monday....by the next day, the high in fort lauderdale was only 69 deg....a record low max temp, followed by a low of 54 deg. This was colder than the cold shot this week in fort lauderdale where the coldest max/min were 71/55!

gatorcane wrote:
boca wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 18z GFS continues to show an arctic blast around November 12th/13th, but as I stated earlier, I ain't buying it until I see it showing the same thing at a closer timeframe (<200 hours out).

Image

Still fun to look at though..


That looks like a 1055mb high in Canada.Thats some impressive cold air if in fact it comes true.


Look what is lurking in the bottom-right of this image. Yes the GFS has consistently been showing a hurricane moving into the NW Caribbean.

Arctic blast in plains and hurricane in the NW Caribbean for the past 3-4 days of runs (I know I have been following each run).

What gives? :eek:
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Re:

#44 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Oct 30, 2008 11:47 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:As always, the GFS continues to play tricks with us.

The latest 18z run shows very little cold air at all.

Well, nevermind. This morning's 00z run has once again switched to a colder look...

Image

Image

Image
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#45 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:02 am

The latest 00z GFS looks very stormy for the plains over the next 2 weeks. Many central U.S. lows are predicted, with chilly air wrapping in behind each one. For the western and central parts of the country, it looks like a prolonged period of cooler and stormier weather is very possible starting this upcoming week and then really solidifying by the following week. Definitely could be an interesting pattern setting up.
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#46 Postby gboudx » Sun Nov 02, 2008 9:54 am

I hope so EWG. It's been too warm and too dry.
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#47 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Nov 02, 2008 8:35 pm

Today's 18z GFS run continues the cool and stormy look over the next couple of weeks...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Many chances of precipitation and many shots of cool/chilly air appear to be on the way.
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#48 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:54 am

This morning's 6z run = still looking cool and stormy.

Here are some highlights...

72 hrs
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3008/299 ... 09.jpg?v=0

168 hrs
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3007/299 ... fb.jpg?v=0

252 hrs
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3165/299 ... e6.jpg?v=0

312 hrs
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3249/299 ... da.jpg?v=0

UPDATE - The 12z is even colder/stormier. I will try to post some still shots of the run later on when I get a chance.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cooler and stormier pattern on the way

#49 Postby flywheel02 » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:17 am

I am new to this forum and not a meteorologist; just an interested admirer. However, I am offering up a challenge for someone to give me my deer season forecast. I hunt in Southeast Oklahoma the last week of November and the first week of December and would like to know what I am going to encounter this year.

Avid Weather Watcher...Melanie
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#50 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:44 pm

Highlights of the 12z GFS...

72 hrs
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3274/299 ... a7.jpg?v=0

120 hrs
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3187/299 ... c9.jpg?v=0

168 hrs
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3275/300 ... c9.jpg?v=0

264 hrs
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3272/299 ... 12.jpg?v=0

336 hrs
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3031/300 ... 73.jpg?v=0

384 hrs
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3185/299 ... 17.jpg?v=0
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Re: Cooler and stormier pattern on the way

#51 Postby amawea » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:12 pm

I see the wet and the storms, but no cold south until 384 hrs. :(
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#52 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 04, 2008 11:35 am

Today's 12z GFS run is quite interesting. It mixes cold air and precipitation well south early next week, possibly meaning wintery type weather into Kansas and Oklahoma...

144 hrs
Image

150 hrs
Image

156 hrs
Image

162 hrs
Image

168 hrs
Image
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Re: Cooler and stormier pattern on the way

#53 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:27 pm

We need the rain badly down here, I wouldn't mind a rainy week at all. After a while day-after-day sunshine gets boring :lol: .
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#54 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 04, 2008 11:44 pm

The 00z GFS is showing a big Southern Plains winter storm in just over 200 hours...

Image
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#55 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:30 am

This is an accuweather forecast, and probably not extremely accurate, but it is still fun to look at...

Image

This forecast is for Oklahoma City, OK.
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Re:

#56 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Nov 05, 2008 12:42 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:This is an accuweather forecast, and probably not extremely accurate, but it is still fun to look at...

Image

This forecast is for Oklahoma City, OK.


That's hot. 8-)
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#57 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Nov 05, 2008 2:39 pm

(12z GFS) 850mb temperatures for next Monday evening...

Image
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#58 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:46 am

Here is my latest NWS forecast for early next week...

Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 53.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Veterans Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52.


:cold: This will be our first sub-50F high temperature so far this autumn if it plays out.
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#59 Postby gboudx » Thu Nov 06, 2008 11:41 am

DFW NWS has our high at 59 on Veteran's Day.
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#60 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:16 am

The latest GFS modeling is trending ever so slightly further north with next weeks storm system. This would mean a slower cool down for OKC and perhaps even another outbreak of severe storms next Monday across the southern plains. A nice cool shot will still follow the low, but the chances of seeing any wintry weather south of the KS/OK border have diminished greatly with the latest runs. There is still time for further model changes though, so the watching game continues. We will probably have a much better idea about how things will evolve once we are 24-48 hours out from the event.

Update - The 12z GFS has now shifted the low back a little further south. The 12z run (compared to the 00z and 06z) also looks much cooler and stormier for next week overall.
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