2008 TCRs

[RL3AO]

Atlantic
Tropical Storm Arthur
Hurricane Bertha
Tropical Storm Cristobal
Hurricane Dolly
Tropical Storm Edouard
Tropical Storm Fay
Hurricane Gustav
Hurricane Hanna
Hurricane Ike
Tropical Storm Josephine
Hurricane Kyle
Tropical Storm Laura
Tropical Storm Marco
Tropical Storm Nana
Tropical Depression Sixteen
Hurricane Omar
Hurricane Paloma

East Pacific
Tropical Storm Alma
Hurricane Boris
Tropical Storm Cristina
Tropical Storm Douglas
Tropical Depression Five-E
Hurricane Elida
Hurricane Fausto
Hurricane Genevieve
Hurricane Hernan
Tropical Storm Iselle
Tropical Storm Julio
Tropical Storm Karina
Tropical Storm Lowell
Tropical Storm Marie
Hurricane Norbert
Tropical Storm Odile
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E
Tropical Storm Polo

[HURAKAN]

Pre-Analysis:


Post-Analysis:

[RL3AO]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-EP062008_Elida.pdf

Hurricane Elida

[CrazyC83]

Not much change in the best track for Elida.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL032008_Cristobal.pdf

No changes in the best track data for Tropical Storm Cristobal.

[RL3AO]

So they lowered the pressure two mb but didn't change the winds when some thought it was near or at hurricane strength.

[CrazyC83]

I think the pressure was knocked down a bit to 998. I would have gone up to 60 kt at the time of the eye feature based on the structure improvement especially compared to the previous hours when it was set at 55 kt in the best track. It didn't last long enough to make me think it was a hurricane though.

[CrazyC83]

Hernan just in. Peak intensity kept at 105 kt.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-EP092008_Hernan.pdf

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Boris post analysis report is in and is on the first post of thread.

[CrazyC83]

Bertha just came out, as did Karina.

Bertha: upgraded to 110 kt, pressure 952mb. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL022008_Bertha.pdf

Karina: cyclogenesis came sooner but otherwise no real change. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-EP122008_Karina.pdf

[HURAKAN]

First time I see the NHC using Google Earth!

[somethingfunny]

So no post-analysis upgrade to Cat4 for Bertha....I should probably assume Omar won't be seeing one of those either despite the discussions mentioning it as a possibility for both hurricanes.

[CrazyC83]

So no post-analysis upgrade to Cat4 for Bertha....I should probably assume Omar won't be seeing one of those either despite the discussions mentioning it as a possibility for both hurricanes.

Bertha was 105 kt operationally though.

[Category 5]

So no post-analysis upgrade to Cat4 for Bertha....I should probably assume Omar won't be seeing one of those either despite the discussions mentioning it as a possibility for both hurricanes.

I think Omar will almost certainly be upped to a cat 4.

[CrazyC83]

So no post-analysis upgrade to Cat4 for Bertha....I should probably assume Omar won't be seeing one of those either despite the discussions mentioning it as a possibility for both hurricanes.

I think Omar will almost certainly be upped to a cat 4.

I agree at 0600Z October 16. (After that, it is all subject to speculation, although I believe Omar was stronger than Dvorak suggests when he looked really bad after the weakening)

[CrazyC83]

Edouard and Marco are both out.

No significant changes in either of them.

[cycloneye]

The reports are being posted at the first post of thread.I think that from now we will see a almost daily stream of reports.

[CrazyC83]

Marco involved a lot of guessing for sure, since there was little data to work from other than that one flight.

Based on the thought that it strengthened a bit (confirmed by Dvorak) while there was no flight in the air, my guess is 60 kt for Marco's peak intensity (pressure 995mb) at 0600/7 since it rose from T2.0 at the time of the flight (50-55 kt at the time) to T3.2 average at 1200/7. I also think that Marco weakened a bit before landfall as well.

[CrazyC83]

As for the frequency of upcoming TCR's, remember we have a bunch of long ones coming too.

[Derek Ortt]

we may not see TCRs quickly

those two reports were both by Franklin. Those are the two that he does for this season