ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

The highest SFMR reading was 58 kt (there was a 60 kt flagged) so that is probably the basis for the 60 kt estimate. I think that is a bit high as the FL winds come nowhere near supporting 60 kt. (The highest FL winds found support about 45 kt, so 50 kt would be a blend of the data)

[Derek Ortt]

in this type of convection, the surface winds usually are greater than FL winds

[FireBird]

As this system passed over us in TnT last weekend, it had all the makings for an awesome storm - the winds! the seas! the convection! I know that the forecast is for a turn NW but I can't help but wonder if this storm (like so many this year) will not pull a "fast one", and just do things beyond prediction??!!! I'm keeping a very close eye on this. I believe the correct call has been made for all the Caribbean to be on the lookout. So thanks guys. Keep up the good work!

[caribsue]

Barbados too was affected by the same system. It is believed that all of the rain and subsequent flooding here today was caused from a feeler band from Omar hopefully there will be no more. We are totally saturated here. FINGERS CROSSED

[MiamiensisWx]

Ultimately, the track of the system will hinge on its forward speed and intensity. If the system is shallower and moves more rapidly, it will likely be farther north and west prior to turning northeast. That outcome could likely result in a direct impact on southern Puerto Rico. On the other hand, if the depression moves more lethargically over the next 24-48 hours (or deepens quicker than anticipated), it is probable that the NE turn will be sharper and more pronounced as the 250-500 mb trough amplifies northwest of the tropical cyclone. That outcome seems more probable at this time, implying that the system could skirt/scrape the southern coast of Puerto Rico or remain slightly offshore. The actual track could be east of the NHC forecast positions in the medium/long term if this scenario unfolds, although residents should focus on the cone. Overall, this is not a good scenario for the Leeward Islands and the eastern half of Puerto Rico, since decent lift, orographic lifting, and forced ascent will result in heavy precipitation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Currently, my original thoughts have been vindicated, as evidenced by the eastward adjustment of the five day cone. Since the system is currently drifting southeast, it is becoming increasingly probable that the eastward shift was justified, and Omar may even pass slightly east of the latest forecast track. I originally suspected that the system would pass closer to Sint Maarten and the Netherlands Antilles, and I also believed greater intensification/deepening in the short term was plausible. In the short term, the synoptic environment is very conducive for additional deepening, and satellite imagery indicates the center is situated directly under the stronger convection. There are signs of a formative 250-300 mb UL anticyclone developing over the TC, and dual outflow channels may be developing on the NW and SE quadrants; note that the 250-500 mb trough to the NW is inducing a southwesterly upper jet (and ventilation) on the NW side, while the anticyclonic wind vectors are inducing additional divergence and ventilation on the SE side. It is quite possible that Omar may attain hurricane status tonight, as conditions will remain favorable. In addition, the SE movement has placed the system farther from UL shear, which is partially induced by TD 16's outflow.

Overall, residents in the Leeward Islands should be prepared for a hurricane threat, and even Category 1 TCs (as seen previously) can cause extensive wind damage. In this situation, most of the convection and strongest 1-min winds will likely be displaced to the eastern half of the circulation, as shear will be increasing (courtesy of the amplifying UL trough to the NW) as the TC approaches the Leeward Islands. Personally, I believe it is quite possible that precipitation may be higher than the NHC's totals on some islands in the NE Caribbean as well, and I suspect totals in excess of 14-16"+ are locally possible.

[msbee]

its only going to be about 36-48 hours before striking the northern Caribbean. A watch is justified now (at least replace the TS watch with a hurricane watch)

we don't even have a tropical storm watch here and everyone here is taking this very lightly

[MiamiensisWx]

Hurricane Watch should be issued for the Netherlands Antilles and United States Virgin Islands in the next advisory package, in my view...

[Gustywind]

Ultimately, the track of the system will hinge on its forward speed and intensity. If the system is shallower and moves more rapidly, it will likely be farther north and west prior to turning northeast. That outcome could likely result in a direct impact on southern Puerto Rico. On the other hand, if the depression moves more lethargically over the next 24-48 hours (or deepens quicker than anticipated), it is probable that the NE turn will be sharper and more pronounced as the 250-500 mb trough amplifies northwest of the tropical cyclone. That outcome seems more probable at this time, implying that the system could skirt/scrape the southern coast of Puerto Rico or remain slightly offshore. The actual track could be east of the NHC forecast positions in the medium/long term if this scenario unfolds, although residents should focus on the cone. Overall, this is not a good scenario for the Leeward Islands and the eastern half of Puerto Rico, since decent lift, orographic lifting, and forced ascent will result in heavy precipitation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Currently, my original thoughts have been vindicated, as evidenced by the eastward adjustment of the five day cone. Since the system is currently drifting southeast, it is becoming increasingly probable that the eastward shift was justified, and Omar may even pass slightly east of the latest forecast track. I originally suspected that the system would pass closer to Sint Maarten and the Netherlands Antilles, and I also believed greater intensification/deepening in the short term was plausible. In the short term, the synoptic environment is very conducive for additional deepening, and satellite imagery indicates the center is situated directly under the stronger convection. There are signs of a formative 250-300 mb UL anticyclone developing over the TC, and dual outflow channels may be developing on the NW and SE quadrants; note that the 250-500 mb trough to the NW is inducing a southwesterly upper jet (and ventilation) on the NW side, while the anticyclonic wind vectors are inducing additional divergence and ventilation on the SE side. It is quite possible that Omar may attain hurricane status tonight, as conditions will remain favorable. In addition, the SE movement has placed the system farther from UL shear, which is partially induced by TD 16's outflow.

Overall, residents in the Leeward Islands should be prepared for a hurricane threat, and even Category 1 TCs (as seen previously) can cause extensive wind damage. In this situation, most of the convection and strongest 1-min winds will likely be displaced to the eastern half of the circulation, as shear will be increasing (courtesy of the amplifying UL trough to the NW) as the TC approaches the Leeward Islands. Personally, I believe it is quite possible that precipitation may be higher than the NHC's totals on some islands in the NE Caribbean as well, and I suspect totals in excess of 14-16"+ are locally possible.

Interresting post, hope that this won't come, because us in Guadeloupe are suffering from excess of water water, but i have to admit that St Marteen could be directly hit given the latest trend to the SE but if Omar continues more SE that could pose a threat for all the Southern Leewards....

[caribepr]

Well, those Dutch are hardy sorts, run over to the French side...if they aren't taking it seriously, I KNOW they are eating well! I thought there WAS an advisory for the Antilles...but I'm sort of tired, maybe I made that up?

[Gustywind]

its only going to be about 36-48 hours before striking the northern Caribbean. A watch is justified now (at least replace the TS watch with a hurricane watch)

we don't even have a tropical storm watch here and everyone here is taking this very lightly

With METEO FRANCE on strike, maybe tonight for the warning or they will wait for tommorow you are in yellow alert, maybe tommorow orange but we wait and see, this idea of strike is so unbeliveable in this type of situation no words for that..;

[MiamiensisWx]

CaribPR,

There are TS Watches in effect for adjacent locales:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SABA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/141755.shtml

[CrazyC83]

its only going to be about 36-48 hours before striking the northern Caribbean. A watch is justified now (at least replace the TS watch with a hurricane watch)

we don't even have a tropical storm watch here and everyone here is taking this very lightly

With METEO FRANCE on strike, maybe tonight for the warning or they will wait for tommorow you are in yellow alert, maybe tommorow orange but we wait and see, this idea of strike is so unbeliveable in this type of situation no words for that..;

Meteo-France is on strike? Who is writing the advisories for them?

[Gustywind]

Ultimately, the track of the system will hinge on its forward speed and intensity. If the system is shallower and moves more rapidly, it will likely be farther north and west prior to turning northeast. That outcome could likely result in a direct impact on southern Puerto Rico. On the other hand, if the depression moves more lethargically over the next 24-48 hours (or deepens quicker than anticipated), it is probable that the NE turn will be sharper and more pronounced as the 250-500 mb trough amplifies northwest of the tropical cyclone. That outcome seems more probable at this time, implying that the system could skirt/scrape the southern coast of Puerto Rico or remain slightly offshore. The actual track could be east of the NHC forecast positions in the medium/long term if this scenario unfolds, although residents should focus on the cone. Overall, this is not a good scenario for the Leeward Islands and the eastern half of Puerto Rico, since decent lift, orographic lifting, and forced ascent will result in heavy precipitation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Currently, my original thoughts have been vindicated, as evidenced by the eastward adjustment of the five day cone. Since the system is currently drifting southeast, it is becoming increasingly probable that the eastward shift was justified, and Omar may even pass slightly east of the latest forecast track. I originally suspected that the system would pass closer to Sint Maarten and the Netherlands Antilles, and I also believed greater intensification/deepening in the short term was plausible. In the short term, the synoptic environment is very conducive for additional deepening, and satellite imagery indicates the center is situated directly under the stronger convection. There are signs of a formative 250-300 mb UL anticyclone developing over the TC, and dual outflow channels may be developing on the NW and SE quadrants; note that the 250-500 mb trough to the NW is inducing a southwesterly upper jet (and ventilation) on the NW side, while the anticyclonic wind vectors are inducing additional divergence and ventilation on the SE side. It is quite possible that Omar may attain hurricane status tonight, as conditions will remain favorable. In addition, the SE movement has placed the system farther from UL shear, which is partially induced by TD 16's outflow.

Overall, residents in the Leeward Islands should be prepared for a hurricane threat, and even Category 1 TCs (as seen previously) can cause extensive wind damage. In this situation, most of the convection and strongest 1-min winds will likely be displaced to the eastern half of the circulation, as shear will be increasing (courtesy of the amplifying UL trough to the NW) as the TC approaches the Leeward Islands. Personally, I believe it is quite possible that precipitation may be higher than the NHC's totals on some islands in the NE Caribbean as well, and I suspect totals in excess of 14-16"+ are locally possible.

Do you tkink that Guadeloupe could be on the path if this the system races more SE or EST before the NE turn expected?

[MiamiensisWx]

Do you tkink that Guadeloupe could be on the path if this the system races more SE or EST before the NE turn expected?

This is NOT an official prognosis.

Quick clarification prior to leaving:

Personally, I believe the TC will remain within the NHC's five day cone, but I suspect it will follow the eastern side of the cone... in other words, it will be closer to Sint Maarten/Netherlands Antilles, but it will not pass south of those islands.

[somethingfunny]

Oh dear. Ever wonder what would happen if the police went on strike? That's just crazy. Are the local media in Guadeloupe and the rest of the French Carribbean islands at least covering this storm?

[msbee]

Well, those Dutch are hardy sorts, run over to the French side...if they aren't taking it seriously, I KNOW they are eating well! I thought there WAS an advisory for the Antilles...but I'm sort of tired, maybe I made that up?

ha ha MJ!

[Gustywind]

Do you tkink that Guadeloupe could be on the path if this the system races more SE or EST before the NE turn expected?

This is NOT an official prognosis.

Quick clarification prior to leaving:

Personally, I believe the TC will remain within the NHC's five day cone, but I suspect it will follow the eastern side of the cone... in other words, it will be closer to Sint Maarten/Netherlands Antilles, but it will not pass south of those islands.

Tkanks a lot , i appreciate!

[Gustywind]

Speaking about Meteo-France, Hummm Orange alert has been required for Guadeloupe and ST Marteen!

[caribepr]

CaribPR,

There are TS Watches in effect for adjacent locales:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SABA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/141755.shtml

Thanks. That's what I thought...St. Martin is about as adjacent as it gets Those wacky Dutch!

[caribepr]

Well, those Dutch are hardy sorts, run over to the French side...if they aren't taking it seriously, I KNOW they are eating well! I thought there WAS an advisory for the Antilles...but I'm sort of tired, maybe I made that up?

ha ha MJ!

Ah, Grand Case...the marketplace...yes (it was a long time ago, doing an article for CT & L..Sint Maarten/Saint Martin...pretty funny, sorta)! I remember being so very impressed how they'd made BOTH sides look so good after one of the bad ones...we (I lived on St. Croix then) still looked like a bomb had gone off. I wanted to move to STM bad! So keep that in mind as you worry...you all do great recovery!